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December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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It appears we are going to be dealing with a Pineapple Express around the 10-12th of this month. What has followed 10 days to 3 weeks following a pineapple express in past history? QUE SNOW WIZARD

NOAA CPC also showing that timeframe as very wet and very warm.  Looks like several bouts of the pineapple express:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

 

Maybe we will still hit the 50" mark for the year.

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Guest Winterdog

Do you get much C-Zone action at that location?

We are in the northern part of the typical CZ path. We had 3 plus inches this event while two miles north there was less than an inch. I'd say we get in on the CZ action more than half the time.
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Guest Winterdog

Gorgeous pic, dude. That's postcard material right there..

Thanks Phil. We've been here for over 30 years and the only real change in our view has been the addition of the house you see in front across the road and some clear-cutting on the ridge to our east.
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Guest Winterdog

I'm pretty much the same, just on the southern end of it.

You do have the advantage of some elevation too. Fortunately my location is a great spot for radiational cooling.
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You do have the advantage of some elevation too. Fortunately my location is a great spot for radiational cooling.

Yeah, the elevation helps a ton. Being in the CZ at 550ft vs being in the CZ at 200ft makes a huge difference. Having the elevation Especially in borderline situations...There are so many times when I drive up my hill and it will be raining at the bottom and even raining halfway up, then at my house it/s dumping snow with 4" of snow on the ground. Helped in this situation a bit too. I had 3" up here while there was about 1" at the bottom of my hill. 

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Yeah, the elevation helps a ton. Being in the CZ at 550ft vs being in the CZ at 200ft makes a huge difference. Having the elevation Especially in borderline situations...There are so many times when I drive up my hill and it will be raining at the bottom and even raining halfway up, then at my house it/s dumping snow with 4" of snow on the ground. Helped in this situation a bit too. I had 3" up here while there was about 1" at the bottom of my hill. 

 

I always enjoy driving home and seeing the difference the elevation makes with snowfall. In borderline snow situations at my place literally a mile down the road there may be nothing when there could be several inches at my house. In most snowfall situations since I've lived here the dividing line between sticking snow is usually right around 800-1000'. Usually by the time you get to 1200' there is accumulating snow. And the 1500' level is another noticeable dividing line usually. I think a lot of that difference is due to the precip rates. That lower 1000' where most people in Oregon live is like a different climate/world.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I always enjoy driving home and seeing the difference the elevation makes with snowfall. In borderline snow situations at my place literally a mile down the road there may be nothing when there could be several inches at my house. In most snowfall situations since I've lived here the dividing line between sticking snow is usually right around 800-1000'. Usually by the time you get to 1200' there is accumulating snow. And the 1500' level is another noticeable dividing line usually. I think a lot of that difference is due to the precip rates. That lower 1000' where most people in Oregon live is like a different climate/world.

 

Yeah me too! It's so much fun seeing the rain change the snow driving up and the world turning into a winter wonderland! It's amazing the difference between the climate on my hill and the climate down below. It isn't as big of a difference as you at 1600ft and the valleys at a like 300ft there but its still a big difference between 100 and 550ft here, especially with the snow.

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Yeah me too! It's so much fun seeing the rain change the snow driving up and the world turning into a winter wonderland! It's amazing the difference between the climate on my hill and the climate down below. It isn't as big of a difference as you at 1600ft and the valleys at a like 300ft there but its still a big difference between 100 and 550ft here, especially with the snow.

 

 

I grew up at almost exactly 500 ft elevation east of Gresham, and numerous times when we'd have a couple of inches the snow line was very distinctly visible at about the 400-450 ft level driving down the road.

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A Warm Fall

 

Data from my Minnehaha station (Records since 1996)

 

This is September, October, November averages

 

Average High Temp: 66.2, beating out 65.8 in 1999

 

Mean Temp: 56.9, beating out 55.7 in 1997

 

Average Low Temp: 47.2, beating out 46.2 in 1997

 

Some trends for the last 18 years:

 

My average high temp for the 3 month period is down 0.8 degrees.

 

My average low temp for the 3 month period is up 1.4 degrees.

 

My average precip for the 3 month period is down about 2".

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I always enjoy driving home and seeing the difference the elevation makes with snowfall. In borderline snow situations at my place literally a mile down the road there may be nothing when there could be several inches at my house. In most snowfall situations since I've lived here the dividing line between sticking snow is usually right around 800-1000'. Usually by the time you get to 1200' there is accumulating snow. And the 1500' level is another noticeable dividing line usually. I think a lot of that difference is due to the precip rates. That lower 1000' where most people in Oregon live is like a different climate/world.

unfortunately I haven't had a good elevation driven event since I moved up here in february, But I am guessing the changes will be pretty extreme since it goes from 60' to 1550' in just over 3 miles of driving.

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unfortunately I haven't had a good elevation driven event since I moved up here in february, But I am guessing the changes will be pretty extreme since it goes from 60' to 1550' in just over 3 miles of driving.

 

Yeah that is pretty extreme. The climb to my place from Silverton is more gradual. Goes from 250' to 1600' in about 9 miles. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I grew up at almost exactly 500 ft elevation east of Gresham, and numerous times when we'd have a couple of inches the snow line was very distinctly visible at about the 400-450 ft level driving down the road.

 

Yeah, usually the snow line is at about 350-400ft and it's very distinct.

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12Z ECMWF has more energy dumping south towards CA next week.   It does not show the pineapple express scenario that the GFS shows.   Canadian is similar to ECMWF.

 

Good news for CA... boring up here.

 

Rain at times and mild.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I love this kind of stuff!

 

I have excel sheets/graphs back to December 1996 for my Vancouver station.

 

4th year of my Battle Ground station on December 10th...

 

That's awesome! I have daily data from 2008 onward for my place! I'm glad you like it! I was thinking of making a thread for people to post their backyard weather data and stuff! 

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It appears we are going to be dealing with a Pineapple Express around the 10-12th of this month. What has followed 10 days to 3 weeks following a pineapple express in past history? QUE SNOW WIZARD!

I feel like a hashtag is needed here... #MJO #TropicalForcing :)

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Precursors to the major SSW event showing up now on the longer range models..PV is pushed into a baroclinic state in the week-2 timeframe, followed by a preceding wave-1 response..this could be it..

 

Timing looks right on schedule thus far..late December/early January..

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Precursors to the major SSW event showing up now on the longer range models..PV is pushed into a baroclinic state in the week-2 timeframe, followed by a preceding wave-1 response..this could be it..

 

Timing looks right on schedule thus far..late December/early January..

Read through a paper discussing a MJO / SSW correlation... Quite interesting

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Chaim_strat_paper.pdf

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Mariners make another questionable trade - Saunders for J.A. Happ.

That is extremely questionable. But maybe Happ can do well at safeco.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Mariners make another questionable trade - Saunders for J.A. Happ.

 

I don't like either deal.  Cruz is a Richie Sexson waiting to happen.  I'm wondering what happened to what had been described a few years ago as the best farm system in baseball?  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12Z ECMWF has more energy dumping south towards CA next week.   It does not show the pineapple express scenario that the GFS shows.   Canadian is similar to ECMWF.

 

Good news for CA... boring up here.

 

Rain at times and mild.

 

I got to thinking today... Is it just you, me and Jim left from those that jumped on board this train fall of 2005?  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Read through a paper discussing a MJO / SSW correlation... Quite interesting

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Chaim_strat_paper.pdf

Great paper right there. I wish there was more research done on the dual nature of the relationship between tropical forcing and the stratosphere..a lot of chicken-egg paradoxes here but it's clear that there's a feedback loop at work. An MJO event can assist or force a SSW event, which can assist/force a change in the MJO, etc.

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Guest Winterdog

I think that Lake Roesiger area would be an awesome spot. Right in the middle of the CZ, at 600-750ft. Looks good for radiational cooling, and pretty far east too.

Yes, that area is great for snow in all marginal situations and definitely scores big with convergence zones. It's got to be good for radiational cooling since it is definitely wind sheltered.
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Guest Winterdog

Currently 31F after a high of only 33F today.  I caught this deer near the side of our house this evening, I think he was a three point.  A very beautiful animal.

post-116-0-42928700-1417657359_thumb.jpg

 

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.. To whom are you talking exactly. ? And to what are you referring, more specifically. ?

 

Huh?

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Yeah, that trade sucks. Happ is mediocre, older, and only has a year left on his contract. And Seattle really needs all the outfield help they can get. Makes no sense.

I don't like it much either.

 

They burned any remaining bridges with Saunders for no reason by complaining publicly about his inability to stay healthy. That made zero sense. Just pissed off Saunders and lowered his trade value.

 

I'd be surprised if they don't have something in the works for another outfielder though. I fear it's a sign they are about to trade Walker for Upton since the Braves just signed Markakis. I want Upton, but I don't think 1 year of him is worth 4 years of Walker. I'd love if we could package a reliever or two with Taylor for him.

 

Maybe they'll sign Melky Cabrera. Depending on the money I could definitely get on board with that.

 

We definitely did need starting pitching depth though so it's not a terrible return. Happ is a flyball pitcher which should be a good fit for Safeco and probably indicates he is a better pitcher than his numbers in the homerdome in Tornoto would suggest.

 

I'm sad to see the dry air leave. It got up to 50 today but with DP's in the 20's things were still pretty frozen up in the shade even in the middle of the afternoon.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I always enjoy driving home and seeing the difference the elevation makes with snowfall. In borderline snow situations at my place literally a mile down the road there may be nothing when there could be several inches at my house. In most snowfall situations since I've lived here the dividing line between sticking snow is usually right around 800-1000'. Usually by the time you get to 1200' there is accumulating snow. And the 1500' level is another noticeable dividing line usually. I think a lot of that difference is due to the precip rates. That lower 1000' where most people in Oregon live is like a different climate/world.

 

700-800 feet seems like a transition zone in the Portland area. Lots more chances for accumulation once you get up there.

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I got to thinking today... Is it just you, me and Jim left from those that jumped on board this train fall of 2005?  

I was on board that train!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Currently 31F after a high of only 33F today.  I caught this deer near the side of our house this evening, I think he was a three point.  A very beautiful animal.

attachicon.gifunnamed1.jpg

 

You were incredibly lucky to stay that cold today.  Most places got well above 40.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah, this pattern fooking sucks..looks a lot like 1986-87 for now..

 

Looks like everything is on target.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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