December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[GHweatherChris]

Phil is the one that's saying the hammer is going to drop on us in January.  The only thing he has said is that he thinks our turn won't come until after New Years.

Originally he said early January, now he says it may be later which makes it more of a blanket prediction.

 

No one at all predicted 2 cold shots in November, so there is that as well.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Originally he said early January, now he says it may be later.  Now its really a blanket prediction.

 

No one at all predicted 2 cold shots in November, so there is that as well.

 

He sort of called the first November shot, but not the second one.

[GHweatherChris]

He sort of called the first November shot, but not the second one.

No one called either.  

[snow_wizard]

No one called either.  

 

I think Phil did call the first one.  He totally missed the second one though as pretty much everyone else did.

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty rare to go all of December without a lowland snow event of some kind. Happened in 2011, but the last time before that was probably 1999.

 

True.  I don't think 2002 had anything of note though.  I am really confident of a pretty notable cold event coming somewhere in the 3 to 5 week time frame.  I don't think the November cold snaps changed anything.  As you have said it follows 1958 fairly well and we ended up having the January blast in 1959.  Just to give one example.

[GHweatherChris]

I think Phil did call the first one.  He totally missed the second one though as pretty much everyone else did.

Noone came out and said the first one was likely, only a chance.

 

LR forecasting is silly on so many levels to me, most of it is chance and when/if it does happen the way someone says, they are looked at as a genius, when in reality it was just luck.

 

Over the last few years, Richard has been the most accurate on his calls 4 plus weeks out with cold air movement.

[GHweatherChris]

.. No one pegged it. .

Don't be modest.

[BLI snowman]

True.  I don't think 2002 had anything of note though.  I am really confident of a pretty notable cold event coming somewhere in the 3 to 5 week time frame.  I don't think the November cold snaps changed anything.  As you have said it follows 1958 fairly well and we ended up having the January blast in 1959.  Just to give one example.

 

We had a tiny bit of snow up in Whatcom County in December 2002.

[MossMan]

It has been amazing to me that I still have about 80% of my last Fri night/Sat morning snowfall with full out sun every day and above freezing highs for the last two days! My low last night was 20, and was dropping like a rock until about an hour ago. Was at 28, now at 31. Looks like the melt a Thon will be commencing shortly

[GHweatherChris]

It has been amazing to me that I still have about 80% of my last Fri night/Sat morning snowfall with full out sun every day and above freezing highs for the last two days! My low last night was 20, and was dropping like a rock until about an hour ago. Was at 28, now at 31. Looks like the melt a Thon will be commencing shortly

Please do not rub it in, be grateful you had the ideal cold result.

 

Most of us did not.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The meagre amount of snow we got here in Victoria has lasted through the week in shady spots; with the amount of frost covering the roads/sidewalks and sitting above the snow it almost looked snowier this morning then the first morning after the snowfall.

 

Still pretty early to call, but if the predictions of zonal flow hold true for the next two weeks I'd expect we have a decent chance at scoring something late in the month when the pattern will likely be transitioning into -AO. As I've said before, with a few notable exceptions like Jan 1950, our best chances tend to come from active transitioning patterns. Stagnant patterns like the almost-permanent low amplitude Eastern Pacific ridging the last couple winters appear promising and might allow some back door events, but they don't have the kick to give us the really fun stuff like wide spread lowland snows.

[BLI snowman]

The Canadian kind of sucks, seems to show split flow hell.

[epiceast]

Took a couple hours of freezing rain to close an interstate in eastern oregon.

[snow_wizard]

The meagre amount of snow we got here in Victoria has lasted through the week in shady spots; with the amount of frost covering the roads/sidewalks and sitting above the snow it almost looked snowier this morning then the first morning after the snowfall.

 

Still pretty early to call, but if the predictions of zonal flow hold true for the next two weeks I'd expect we have a decent chance at scoring something late in the month when the pattern will likely be transitioning into -AO. As I've said before, with a few notable exceptions like Jan 1950, our best chances tend to come from active transitioning patterns. Stagnant patterns like the almost-permanent low amplitude Eastern Pacific ridging the last couple winters appear promising and might allow some back door events, but they don't have the kick to give us the really fun stuff like wide spread lowland snows.

 

There is a lot of truth to what you say.  The extreme variability of this season (which will apparently continue) greatly increases our chances of scoring again.  

[ShawniganLake]

This was a quote from a prediction I made back on September 2 on the Canadian forums. I can't remember if I posted it here. So far I am feeling pretty good about how things are progressing. Quite a lot of variability in the pattern and Im still feeling good about the early to mid January period.

 

"Personally, I think it will be a winter of weather swings and I doubt it turns out as warm and dry in Nov and Dec as this forecast is showing. (Was discussing the old farmers almanac at the time this post was written). If I Had to pick time periods to score a big winter event....I am going to go with late Nov-early Dec and early to mid January."

[ShawniganLake]

The Canadian kind of sucks, seems to show split flow hell.

Thankfully the euro is showing a much more consolidated jet. I was disappointed with the Canadian for sure. Euro looks to show potential for a windstorm or 2 later next week.

[BLI snowman]

Thankfully the euro is showing a much more consolidated jet. I was disappointed with the Canadian for sure. Euro looks to show potential for a windstorm or 2 later next week.

 

Canadian has performed pretty poorly, so I feel okay about writing it off for the moment when it's off on its own little split flow island.

[westiztehbest]

PNA looks to peak ~Dec 10th then drop closer to normal albeit slightly above...which isn't surprising given the +ENSO base state.  I'd guess closer to average temps will be the norm by the 15th-20th.  CFS is consistently showing January to be cold.  

 

 

[Bryant]

Upcoming pattern in one image....

 

http://i.imgur.com/tV0W510.gif

[Phil]

I think Phil did call the first one. He totally missed the second one though as pretty much everyone else did.

I didn't miss anything....long range forecasting is a physics-based science..it's not all guesswork..

 

Here's my winter forecast from back in October:

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/644-my-forecast-for-winter-2014-15/page-2?do=findComment&comment=47919

 

I called for the Alaskan wave breaking event to occur mid/late November..that's what happened..I never specified how many arctic events would arise from that..

 

Hopefully that's easy enough to understand?

[Phil]

Phil, Dewey and others... but maybe it's because not many people question Phil's predictions.

Well, I certainly do..

[snow_wizard]

PNA looks to peak ~Dec 10th then drop closer to normal albeit slightly above...which isn't surprising given the +ENSO base state.  I'd guess closer to average temps will be the norm by the 15th-20th.  CFS is consistently showing January to be cold.  

 

 

 

I love that graphic.  It shows it being another Arctic outbreak that spreads out along the Canadian border.  Those are usually good snow makers.  Pretty impressive anoms for the extreme north and most of Canada considering that's a 10 day average.

[Gradient Keeper]

Upcoming pattern in one image....

 

http://i.imgur.com/tV0W510.gif

 

To go along with this Models are starting to make some noise about a possible wind storm pattern. Beginning this weekend a very powerful jet 180-200mph moves off of Asia. Fast forward to Monday-Tuesday and this now stretches across nearly the entire north Pacific and importantly at a fairly low latitude just below 40 N showing good jet suppression. Both GFS and ECMWF show a very deep low spins up outside 130 W curving northward towards the Queen Charlotte Islands.

 

This would be the parent low and main driver in this evolution as it sets up a favorable pattern for shortwaves/low pressure areas to rapidly develop around the bottom/base of the 500mb trough. I would target this possibility somewhere around December 11th-13th. 300mb model shows there will also be excellent left exit jet support of 140-160mph right up along the Oregon Coast into western Oregon. It is something to keep an eye on and don't be surprised in the coming days if a model run or two shows a fairly significant wind storm impacting Oregon/Washington. 00z GFS Ensemble 500mb mean looks very favorable as well with the trough inside 132 W. It really all depends on if the jet is consolidated, or does it remain splitty with too much energy heading into California. If not, we stand a better than usual chance at a wind storm. Many model runs to go.....

[TT-SEA]

Warm morning... 42 here and the snow is melting pretty fast as the dewpoint rises.

[Tyler Mode]

Looks like quite a bit of freezing rain from Crown Point (Exit 23 or so) east in the gorge.

 

The sensor at Crown Point is now frozen as well:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off

[TT-SEA]

SSTA update:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.12.4.2014.gif

[Tyler Mode]

I hate to say it, but I wouldn't mind an El Nino right now, as it seems the best pattern to at least get California some sustained rain.

[Snowman5678]

Warm morning... 42 here and the snow is melting pretty fast as the dewpoint rises.

Snow melting here too. 36 though with a dp of 32.

[MossMan]

Yep, up to 35 degrees and the sound of dripping here as well. It was a nice run though!

[ShawniganLake]

SSTA update:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.12.4.2014.gif

Yep. Looks like the oceans are still either warmer or colder than normal. I find those maps kind of deceiving. I wish they had some way of showing where the water was within a few tenths of average, instead of having everything indicated as above or below.

[stuffradio]

SSTA update:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.12.4.2014.gif

Still hardcore +PDO. When the PDO flips, how many months does it take to happen?

[Snow]

The new 12z GFS shows Arctic Air again to the Canadian border in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

The new 12z GFS shows Arctic Air again to the Canadian border in the long range.

 

 

Is 'Arctic Air' a proper name?

 

And this is not exactly an arctic boundary at the border:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This week has been trending wetter at least for down here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is 'Arctic Air' a proper name?

 

And this is not exactly an arctic boundary at the border:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht.gif

 

Maybe he meant the Alaska/Canada border?

[Snow]

Is 'Arctic Air' a proper name?

 

And this is not exactly an arctic boundary at the border:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht.gif

 

Maybe he meant the Alaska/Canada border?

 

It sure looks like Arctic Air to me. Maybe modified arctic air to be precise.

 

http://oi59.tinypic.com/34r7fut.jpg

[ShawniganLake]

It sure looks like Arctic Air to me. Maybe modified arctic air to be precise.

 

http://oi59.tinypic.com/34r7fut.jpg

There is no outflow and -6c 850mb temps in mid December isn't especially cold. Arctic high pressure is up in northern Yukon in that frame, if not farther north

[MossMan]

There is no outflow and -6c 850mb temps in mid December isn't especially cold. Arctic high pressure is up in northern Yukon in that frame, if not farther north

Good mountain snow though?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some heavy rain coming up the valley.

[Snow]

There is no outflow and -6c 850mb temps in mid December isn't especially cold. Arctic high pressure is up in northern Yukon in that frame, if not farther north

 

I consider Arctic Air reaching the Canadian border to means at least -10c temps reaching any point along the Canada/Washington border which is what I said. I didn't say it reached the western lowlands just the border.