December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Good mountain snow though?

Could be some. I think the mountains will get in on some snow around mid month. Hopefully enough for the ski hills before the holiday season starts for them.

[Deweydog]

December 20th is right around the corner. You guys better get this squared away.

[Jesse]

December 20th is right around the corner. You guys better get this s**t squared away.

So how's it looking Matt? You think we blew our load too early with the two November events?

[westiztehbest]

Getting some light snow and freezing drizzle @ 26F.  Cold pool is still pretty resilient in the basin.  I'm sure it will erode over the next day or two.

[Jesse]

Dodged ZR out here again this morning by about a degree. Woke up to 33 degree rain.

 

Looks like they may have gotten a brief period of sleet in Carson.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

December 20th is right around the corner. You guys better get this s**t squared away.

March 7th. Game time.

[Deweydog]

So how's it looking Matt? You think we blew our load too early with the two November events?

I know the early November stuff was pretty expected, relatively speaking but the late November stuff seemed pretty off the grid to me. Maybe it'll be one of those years where we go to the well several times. At this point though my expectations are pretty low, unlike last year where even after early December it felt pretty cetain in my mind things would swing back around later on.

[Snow]

The D+8 12z GFS analog composite looks good. The top 4 analog years had 5.4", 5.0", 12.4" and 7.6" respectively for PDX. I like that 1979 continues to show up and now 1984. If you center 1979 that would mean snow starting around Dec. 30 and for 1984 that would mean around Jan. 3. I think arctic air will start to arrive the last week of December, that would be my best guess with snowstorm(s) around New Years.

 

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2uqhb9z.jpg

[Deweydog]

Is it me or doesn't it seem like a better idea to focus on analogs to the CURRENT weather. Maybe it is just me...

[TT-SEA]

Is it me or doesn't it seem like a better idea to focus on analogs to the CURRENT weather. Maybe it is just me...

 

 

Yeah... I wish the CPC charts showed the top analogs to current pattern and not D+8.

[MossMan]

Glad my Eastern Wa drive was yesterday, looks like some Ice Storm Warnings over there today!

[Timmy]

Some areas in central oregon finally above freezing.  They have had a nightmare ice storm over there for days now.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know the early November stuff was pretty expected, relatively speaking but the late November stuff seemed pretty off the grid to me. Maybe it'll be one of those years where we go to the well several times. At this point though my expectations are pretty low, unlike last year where even after early December it felt pretty cetain in my mind things would swing back around later on.

 

Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch.

[MossMan]

Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch.

Or we continue the cycle that we had in November!

[BLI snowman]

Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch.

 

We're also way overdue for an upper level cold event in the month of January. We'll see which one wins out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We're also way overdue for an upper level cold event in the month of January. We'll see which one wins out.

 

That is very true.

[TT-SEA]

Warm out there... almost 6 days of solid snow cover.   It was a good run.

 

http://s22.postimg.org/49bmsykds/20141204_124739.jpg

[MossMan]

Warm out there... almost 6 days of solid snow cover. It was a good run.

 

http://s22.postimg.org/49bmsykds/20141204_124739.jpg

I tried to post my snow melt pic but file size was too big. Even though it's melting, it looks like your is melting faster!

[TT-SEA]

I tried to post my snow melt pic but file size was too big. Even though it's melting, it looks like your is melting faster!

 

 

Wish I could do a time lapse today... would be interesting.   

[Deweydog]

We're also way overdue for an upper level cold event in the month of January. We'll see which one wins out.

That fact is the only thing that keeps me getting out of bed every morning.

[Snowman5678]

Warm out there... almost 6 days of solid snow cover.   It was a good run.

 

http://s22.postimg.org/49bmsykds/20141204_124739.jpg

 

Yeah same here...the rest of the snow except the piles will probably be gone by tomorrow morning. 

[Phil]

Might be time for more jaws music..PV transitions from a barotropic state into a baroclinic state over the next 2-3 weeks..preparing to self destruct around the turn of the new year?

 

Looks like a classic precursor wave-1 here..anyone else have thoughts on this?

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/8xgpxD/800.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Might be time for more jaws music..PV transitions from a barotropic state into a baroclinic state over the next 2-3 weeks..preparing to self destruct around the turn of the new year

 

Classic precursor wave-1 here..

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/8xgpxD/800.jpg

 

 

Hope its carcass does not spread over Europe instead of North America.

[BLI snowman]

That fact is the only thing that keeps me getting out of bed every morning.

 

You should consult your therapist. 

[Phil]

Hope its carcass does not spread over Europe instead of North America.

Thinking that it'll bifurcate with one piece splitting into Eurasia while other dives into Canada? That's always hard to determine.

 

The 100-50mb portion of the vortex is the most important.

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

Regarding what you've said here above about the main "NOAA /OSPO" SSTA graphics. Perhaps you'll find more value where checking their being more animated.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim full.html 

Link appears to be broken... 

 

EDIT: clicked it a third time and it worked. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

That fact is the only thing that keeps me getting out of bed every morning.

I won't even get out of bed until it snows again. I am pathetic. (Look no winky emoticon - there may be hope for me)

[Deweydog]

You should consult your therapist.

She's on vacation in a much colder and snowier climate.

[Bryant]

Might be time for more jaws music..PV transitions from a barotropic state into a baroclinic state over the next 2-3 weeks..preparing to self destruct around the turn of the new year?

 

Looks like a classic precursor wave-1 here..anyone else have thoughts on this?

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/8xgpxD/800.jpg

@webberweather posted this image which demonstrates the MJO & SSWE correlation. Model guidance shows a 500mb configuration which closely resembles a 500mb configuration preceding a SSWE

[Phil]

Glad to see I'm not on my own with this

[Jesse]

Raw day. 35/32 so far with rain at times.

 

You can see a glaze of ZR on the hills above 700'.

[Jesse]

There seem to be some hints that we could go into a decent mountain snow pattern after day 7

Looks like we will have to get through a pretty warm rain event next week first, though.

 

Trying to plan a sledding trip at Old Man Pass (3,000') sometime this month so it would be nice to see something.

[snow_wizard]

Is it me or doesn't it seem like a better idea to focus on analogs to the CURRENT weather. Maybe it is just me...

 

Surprisingly the CPC claims analogs based on model projections are more useful  for forecasting purposes.  They saw the recent cold shot before we actually got any good looking model runs so there is something to it.

[Tyler Mode]

What a raw December day.  Did make it to 41 (now) with 0.78" of rain.

 

Mark Nelsen posted weekly maps over at KPTV and they too show cold air the last week of the month.

 

However, they completely missed the cold back in mid November.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

[snow_wizard]

Yeah the late November push really surprised me. I think/hope Phil is on to something for January, but it really seems like one of those years where this could be pretty much it. We are kind of due for a torchy dud of a winter. 2012-13 was a dud, but it was definitely not a torch.

 

I think you're missing the boat here.  There is strong evidence on a number of fronts that supports the idea of a good cold wave somewhere in the late Dec to mid Jan period.

 

I am on the record for this as much as Phil.

[wx_statman]

Hope its carcass does not spread over Europe instead of North America.

 

A January 1987 type solution is a possibility. Europe gets nailed with one of their biggest modern cold waves while the PNW gets nothing. This followed a ton of November cold in the lower 48 like we just saw. Its not pretty, but its one of the Nino analogs that we currently have going.  

[snow_wizard]

Normally the CFS isn't really worth commenting on, but when it consistently comes up with a highly anomalous solution in a realtively tight time frame it does have some skill.  Over the past week it has consistently been coming up with some pretty impressive cold for the NW in early January.  Yesterday's run, which is the latest update on the site I use, shows a warning shot in late December and then a really nice blast in early January.

[snow_wizard]

Granted a response to a more pessimistic view given the context here. But as far as the "on record" idea goes more, a fairly broad bush timeframe wise, isn't this Jim. ? .. The near month-long period, beginning winter.

 

Not when you consider the degree of anomaly I'm expecting.

[wx_statman]

There seem to be some hints that we could go into a decent mountain snow pattern after day 7

 

Looks like we will have to get through a pretty warm rain event next week first, though.

 

Trying to plan a sledding trip at Old Man Pass (3,000') sometime this month so it would be nice to see something.

 

You already got to sled on 11/13, young man.

[snow_wizard]

A January 1987 type solution is a possibility. Europe gets nailed with one of their biggest modern cold waves while the PNW gets nothing. This followed a ton of November cold in the lower 48 like we just saw. Its not pretty, but its one of the Nino analogs that we currently have going.  

 

You never know, but past history says we have about an 80% chance of getting at least a taste of Arctic air by or before mid Jan.