December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Sooo...we're screwed?

No, unless you were expecting a full-on, historic blast. In that case, yes.

[Deweydog]

No, unless you were expecting a full-on, historic blast. In that case, yes.

-30c will have to wait?

[Phil]

-30c will have to wait?

Affirmative

 

-15C is still doable, though.

[Jesse]

No, unless you were expecting a full-on, historic blast. In that case, yes.

I honestly figured the back-peddling would start sooner. 12/17. Color me surprised.

[Deweydog]

I honestly figured the back-peddling would start sooner. 12/17. Color me surprised.

In his defense he's done really well and never (this year at least) has advertised anything historic specifically for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is all very interesting. My signature says it all. I will be up at all hours of the night over the next several weeks/months. I'm sure I'll check out the 06z runs more than usual, just because.

[catnip]

This is all very interesting. My signature says it all. I will be up at all hours of the night over the next several weeks/months. I'm sure I'll check out the 06z runs more than usual, just because.

 

Congrats! And best of luck!  

[Kayla]

This is all very interesting. My signature says it all. I will be up at all hours of the night over the next several weeks/months. I'm sure I'll check out the 06z runs more than usual, just because.

Wow. Congrats!!!

[Phil]

In his defense he's done really well and never (this year at least) has advertised anything historic specifically for us.

Thanks. Jesse will be Jesse.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I honestly figured the back-peddling would start sooner. 12/17. Color me surprised.

  I am not seeing any back-peddling... 

[TT-SEA]

Speaking of the PDO, November came in at a tidy 1.72.  Highest November number since the Reagan administration.  

 

 

Woah... whaaaa?   Wait a minute.    Huhhh?

 

I was sure someone posted about arctic winds whipping across the WA coastal region and causing SSTs to plummet and of course the PDO to fall through the floor.  

 

Did that not happen?    

 

Sorry but THAT kind of goofiness begs to be called out on a forum discussing science.  Science and obsessions are not a good mix for any of us... and its on all of us to call out the silly stuff.   Nobody has a problem calling me out when I am wrong and that is a good thing.    We need more Deweys... pure and simple.     Able to purely divorce the emotions and the science and posesses a high level of intelligence.   

[TT-SEA]

This is all very interesting. My signature says it all. I will be up at all hours of the night over the next several weeks/months. I'm sure I'll check out the 06z runs more than usual, just because.

 

 

Congrats Andrew!!    Enjoy the next 24 hours.   Once you take them home then the fun really begins!   We had no practice though... went from no kids to twin boys.   You are a veteran already.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Congratulations, Andrew. OH, by the way, check your messages in the forum.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All:

Let's try not to get too hung up on each and every model/ensemble run. It's okay to analyze them and discuss them, but what I'm trying to say is don't get emotionally invested either way with getting your hopes up, or equally hopes dashed with every 6z/12z/18z/00z run. When you're still 6 to 7 days away from the pattern changing offshore/upstream and 8-10 days before any potential north-northeast flow develops we shouldn't look at details because those won't be revealed for several days(By 00z runs this weekend or early next week perhaps). Instead look at the large scale pattern 500mb specifically. We now have all models showing an offshore Rex Block/Kona Low setup. 500mb anomalies look quite favorable with a strong ridging signal right where we want it at 150 160 W amplifying up through Alaska. The only thing we're really missing is a southeast US ridge, but there are hints of it developing after day 9-10. If we end up with a 500mb pattern that the 12z ECMWF/GFS Parallel shows for example it's going to get really cold. Past history shows us that when we have a block in that position it's only a waiting game as to when the cold air arrives. The question then is how cold. With that being said hell yeah I'm rooting for a massive blast with snow for everyone!

[Jesse]

In his defense he's done really well and never (this year at least) has advertised anything historic specifically for us.

I guess I still have a bad taste in my mouth from the December 2012 End-of-the-Mayan-Calendar 1968 redux.

[Deweydog]

I guess I still have a bad taste in my mouth from the December 2012 End-of-the-Mayan-Calendar 1968 redux.

He was seriously looking for some attention there, but this year he's been pretty exceptional. I think the whole coast-to-coast thing is pretty unlikely but who am I to say. At any rate, his bias is much less pronounced this year.

 

Just calling it as I see it...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He was seriously looking for some attention there, but this year he's been pretty exceptional. I think the whole coast-to-coast thing is pretty unlikely but who am I to say. At any rate, his bias is much less pronounced this year.

 

Just calling it as I see it...

I agree. He has spent some serious time on his research.

[paulstorm]

Model riding aside; this has real impact!  :-)  I am flying down to Los Angeles for Christmas...but am keeping an option open to book a return trip the day after Christmas on miles if I need to.  =]  The things we do for the white stuff...

[Deweydog]

18z is running!

 

Don't look at it.

[Guest Winterdog]

TT-SEA, on 17 Dec 2014 - 1:30 PM, said:

Woah... whaaaa?   Wait a minute.    Huhhh?

 

I was sure someone posted about arctic winds whipping across the WA coastal region and causing SSTs to plummet and of course the PDO to fall through the floor.  

 

Did that not happen?    

 

Sorry but THAT kind of goofiness begs to be called out on a forum discussing science.  Science and obsessions are not a good mix for any of us... and its on all of us to call out the silly stuff.   Nobody has a problem calling me out when I am wrong and that is a good thing.    We need more Deweys... pure and simple.     Able to purely divorce the emotions and the science and posesses a high level of intelligence.   

OMG!

[Jesse]

He was seriously looking for some attention there, but this year he's been pretty exceptional. I think the whole coast-to-coast thing is pretty unlikely but who am I to say. At any rate, his bias is much less pronounced this year.

 

Just calling it as I see it...

No, I actually agree for the most part. Just bein' a pill. Someone's gotta.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z is running!

 

Don't look at it.

I am looking.... Neener, neener... Only out to hour 132 and not looking bad on a large scale and even small ones.... What shall follow?

[WS Snow]

18z looking good?

[Prairiedog]

This is all very interesting. My signature says it all. I will be up at all hours of the night over the next several weeks/months. I'm sure I'll check out the 06z runs more than usual, just because.

Congrtats Andrew!  My twin daughters are now 23.  The work load for a while is exponential not just double but with family and friends helping, it makes all the difference in the world.  Getting sleep (working in shifts is key), feedings at the same time to get them to sleep at the same time so you all can sleep is also key.  In the end, its amazing.  Sleep is king!

[TT-SEA]

18z looking good?

Not as good as the ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z looking good?

Timing has moved up a bit pattern change begins upstream/offshore at 160 W by HR 138. Looks unchanged to me Block holds at 145-150 W. I do notice a southeast US ridge develops hmmm.....

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Parallel looks great... Hr 234 Cold low slides down the Coast. Reload. Southeast Ridge

[Guest Winterdog]

I'm thankful that the 18Z is the 18Z.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z Parallel looks great... Hr 234 Cold low slides down the Coast. Reload. Southeast Ridge

Where do you find the 18z Parallel?

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
Next up........
00z NAM in 3 hours 47 minutes(If you want to track the coming Atmospheric River Event)
00z GFS in 4 hours 34 minutes
00z WRF in 5 hours(If you want to track the coming Atmospheric River Event)
00z GEM in 5 hours
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 1 minute

[Gradient Keeper]

Where do you find the 18z Parallel?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121718/

[luvssnow_spokane]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121718/

thanks!

[Gradient Keeper]

thanks!

You're welcome

[WS Snow]

NWS:

 

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITIONING OF A
HIGH OVER KONA LOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE
STRENGTH OF NLY FLOW OVER WRN WA. THE 12/18Z GFS IS FURTHER E WITH
THE LOW AND DUMPS MOST THE COLD AIR INTO THE ROCKIES. COLDER AIR
WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS WRN WA IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIED WITH THE
LOW FURTHER W. EITHER WAY...A TRANSITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY ENOUGH TO TREND HIGH/LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY.
MERCER

[stuffradio]

Thanks for the heads up, I guess I will have to ban everyone that posts anything from WxBell or has posted something in the past. For that matter, any maps without the written consent of the National Football League is prohibited.

It is only for Euro maps, not GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sorry, but I had too....

 

Abbi on the left is 4lb 6oz, Lexi on the right is 6lb 2oz.

 

[Deweydog]

Sorry, but I had too....

 

Abbi on the left is 4lb 6oz, Lexi on the right is 6lb 2oz.

 

Nice work.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sorry, but I had too....

 

Abbi on the left is 4lb 6oz, Lexi on the right is 6lb 2oz.

 

Absolutely perfect!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sorry, but I had too....

 

Abbi on the left is 4lb 6oz, Lexi on the right is 6lb 2oz.

 

Did you buy them a weather radio yet?

[Prairiedog]

Little ones for sure, Abbi anyway.  On time?  Twins tend to come a little early and run a little smaller.  Gosh, that brings back memories.  Wow.  Better than puppy breath any day.  Invest in toilet paper stock now.  Amazing how usage went up.  I didn't see the inside of a bathroom for years.  The deck became my friend.  Oh, did I mention I had two other daughters as well?  Four daughters and a wife, I had two and a half baths and still saw very little "time" in the bathroom. 

[Deweydog]

Anyone else seen the pur water filter commercials with Arthur Tweedie?