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December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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Through hour 48, the 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z. Looking like the models may have finally locked in to what's going to happen with this first short wave...just a bit too far east for a true Arctic intrusion or any real snow.

 

But not ruling anything out, of course.

A forum for the end of the world.

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-

 

… Increasingly more meridional, with slow-down: .. while regressing.  Through to the 3rd. (?)

 

 More cheese on that. … ?

 

"Merry, ……. and to Walla.. ehr  .. Aaah., …. I'm, confused."

 

.. Gotta go. My wife wants me to drive her down to get a Lottery ticket.

Merry Christmas to you and yours Richard!!

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Through hour 48, the 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z. Looking like the models may have finally locked in to what's going to happen with this first short wave...just a bit too far east for a true Arctic intrusion or any real snow.

 

But not ruling anything out, of course.

 

The 0z does spin up that very weak low off the coast of WA again...shows a little bit of moisture around still as the cold air mass works in.

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Through hour 48, the 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z. Looking like the models may have finally locked in to what's going to happen with this first short wave...just a bit too far east for a true Arctic intrusion or any real snow.

 

But not ruling anything out, of course.

Yeah and the Fraser/Columbia River Gorges, Eastern WA/OR and Idaho will all be snow covered. This will help out with the reload.

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The 0z does spin up that very weak low off the coast of WA again...shows a little bit of moisture around still as the cold air mass works in.

These lows dropping down the coast are notorious for stalling and giving snow to one area while leaving another one close by barely anything. I think at the very least someone will score in the Western lowlands.

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The 0z does spin up that very weak low off the coast of WA again...shows a little bit of moisture around still as the cold air mass works in.

I have seen this situation turn into something good in the past. Even a inch or two and then turning cold would be great.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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These lows dropping down the coast are notorious for stalling and giving snow to one area while leaving another one close by barely anything. I think at the very least someone will score in the Western lowlands.

 

The moisture is very sparse...the low is just barely there, and it wasn't on the last GFS run or the NAM. But there's still time for a slight shift west, a little more digging, that's all it would take. Like I said, can't rule it out yet, but at this point I would give the odds of anyone on the west side seeing 1"+ at about 20%.

 

Last time I gave low odds to something good occurring, the models drastically improved within 2 runs. You're welcome.

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The moisture is very sparse...the low is just barely there, and it wasn't on the last GFS run or the NAM. But there's still time for a slight shift west, a little more digging, that's all it would take. Like I said, can't rule it out yet, but at this point I would give the odds of anyone on the west side seeing 1"+ at about 20%.

 

Last time I gave low odds to something good occurring, the models drastically improved within 2 runs. You're welcome.

I agree on the GFS-Regular but the GFS-Parallel looks better. Also moisture arrives just before sunrise, great timing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_14.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_15.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_16.png

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Score! Snow at PDX at hour 96 of the parallel.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I had 2" of snow in Dec 2013!

You had more than I did... I have to admit in the early phase it looks like the puget sound may get screwed again but who knows what can happen later on.  Honestly, at this point the setup is pretty marginal for us puget sounders.  Good news it will be a little chilly so go out and make your frost or dirt snow and mud balls kids.  

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Parallel GFS looks nice through hour 198. Continues to be better than the Operational with a shortwave sliding down the Coast and carving out the East side of the block which would drop cold air down on us. Close to a nice snow setup too.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_34.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Parallel GFS looks nice through hour 198. Continues to be better than the Operational with a shortwave sliding down the Coast and carving out the East side of the block which would drop cold air down on us. Close to a nice snow setup too.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_34.png

Looks fantastic.

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The moisture is very sparse...the low is just barely there, and it wasn't on the last GFS run or the NAM. But there's still time for a slight shift west, a little more digging, that's all it would take. Like I said, can't rule it out yet, but at this point I would give the odds of anyone on the west side seeing 1"+ at about 20%.

 

Last time I gave low odds to something good occurring, the models drastically improved within 2 runs. You're welcome.

It doesn't take much for SOMEONE to get 1". I'd put odds of that at near 50% at this point, but it sure looks light and very spotty unless things can dig further West.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Parallel GFS looks nice through hour 198. Continues to be better than the Operational with a shortwave sliding down the Coast and carving out the East side of the block which would drop cold air down on us. Close to a nice snow setup too.

 

Would be nice to see the timing move up a little. That second shortwave keeps getting pushed back.

 

I don't really trust the new GFS, simply because it hasn't proven much yet. If the 0z Euro is still showing what it has the past couple runs and the timing is moving up, I'll be a lot more confident in something good for you guys.

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The Operational GFS gets close. Oh so close.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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