December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Outliers are fun... well pretty sure it is

[TT-SEA]

I really like Cliff Mass and the work he and his students/coworkers have done with mesoscale modeling here in the northwest. But the WRF has issues that have not and seemingly cannot be resolved yet.  First, it mixes too much energy downward. That is why we won't see good northerly winds in this situation in the Puget Sound. Second, it seems to produce too much downslope warming even in somewhat stable situations.  Then, there is the issue of using the operational GFS as a lateral boundary (this model really misses things on occasion over the all important central and northwest Pacific in these situations).  Winds don't look strong enough in the Fraser outflow area (it can get this right on occasion - but not always). Winds with the initial surge are typically too easterly (over mixing of geostrophic flow downward?)  I remember some situations (I get the dates mixed up now as I age) where the NAM - despite its poor initialization using an early data cutoff - beats the WRF with wind directions, mixing, and convergence boundaries including the strength of the arctic front.  I am thinking Nov 2009 or 2010 (can't remember). I look at it, think about it, then look at lots of other things giving the WRF a bit of weight but not all in like some others.

 

 

So are you saying there is likely to be a snowy convergence zone moving from north to south across King County tomorrow night?

[Gradient Keeper]

I did want to point out that several of the 00z/6z GFS Ensemble members do show a 500mb pattern exactly like today's 12z Op.... some members even had a lobe of the PV north of Omak with 500mb heights 510-520 PDX to BLI

[jaya]

So are you saying there is likely to be a snowy convergence zone moving from north to south across King County tomorrow night?

No, but I'm saying that it is a possibility. Won't know until the last minute.

[jaya]

Look at the differences between all the models N of HI and S of the Aleutians...  toggle through the 0 Hr fcsts at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2014122712&fh=-12&xpos=0&ypos=0.  

 

The short term problem will be low development just off the coast - how much, where, track). Ensembles all now say that it will get cold in western Washington.  Concerning the extended, no clue - and little in the way of any skill. Models are going to take several runs to resolve. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Look at the differences between all the models N of HI and S of the Aleutians...  toggle through the 0 Hr fcsts at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2014122712&fh=-12&xpos=0&ypos=0.  

 

The short term problem will be low development just off the coast - how much, where, track). Ensembles all now say that it will get cold in western Washington.  Concerning the extended, no clue - and little in the way of any skill. Models are going to take several runs to resolve.

Agreed perhaps by 00z Wednesday

[jaya]

Agreed perhaps by 00z Wednesday

Unfortunately!  We have gotten used to model runs that exhibit quite a bit of skill out 7 days or more.  But there are some patterns that are inherently unstable (like the one we are in) and -- models are only models.

[stuffradio]

..... Nothing to see here. Save this image even if it doesn't happen

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122712/gfs_T2m_nwus_35.png

 

Hello... I've never experienced the kind of temperatures being shown there for my area in my lifetime, and this looks really cold for most of western WA. I wonder what the odds are of this verifying. It would probably shut down much of the cities here due to no one being able to know what to do if I'm reading it correctly. It almost looks like Vancouver, BC is -12 F in this picture.

[jaya]

Hello...

If this does happen, there will be many - many happy and busy plumbers in western WA and OR.  I should have gone into a different line of work - but that is a messy job.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM.... reload HR 180-210 far northern Washington into southern BC.... very close to following GFS

[Timmy]

Hello... I've never experienced the kind of temperatures being shown there for my area in my lifetime, and this looks really cold for most of western WA. I wonder what the odds are of this verifying. It would probably shut down much of the cities here due to no one being able to know what to do if I'm reading it correctly. It almost looks like Vancouver, BC is -12 F in this picture.

 

very low res, I wouldn't bank on it.  If that were a high res model it would likely keep subzero temps in and east of the cascades.  But it would be cold nonetheless!  just 8 days away

[jaya]

very low res, I wouldn't bank on it.  If that were a high res model it would likely keep subzero temps in and east of the cascades.  But it would be cold nonetheless!  just 8 days away

Agreed. Op run at low res beyond 192 always shoots cold air sw. It also undercuts blocks too quickly.  Go parallel.

[Timmy]

If this does happen, there will be many - many happy and busy plumbers in western WA and OR.  I should have gone into a different line of work - but that is a messy job.

yeah, as a salaried property manager I am looking forward to the increased workload...

[Gradient Keeper]

Actually the WRF shows the Reload arrives much faster and goes to show you how the operational runs do not see the Gorge or apparently how fast the low-level arctic air rushes down from southern BC 925mb-surface. It's already blasting southward HR 156 Friday 4 PM moving into Columbia Basin, then full on blast with very strong east wind HR 180. If the WRF ran out to HR 240 it would show pure insanity HR 192-216.

[Prairiedog]

Driving from Portland to Winthrop on the 30th, coming back the 3rd.  Going up the weather doesn't look difficult, just cold Coming back might get a little exciting.  Spending New Years at Sun Mountain Lodge.  Was hoping for Mtn. Home Lodge in Leavenworth but just not enough snow to snowshoe like we want although they may be getting a good dump in Leavenworth around the 3rd.  Two winters in a row snow has come later there.  Decent snow in Methow Valley.  Coldest air may come in after New Years there. We shall see.  Just don't want to deal with an ice storm down the Gorge or at least in and around Portland.  Good snow storm brewing for eastern Wa and Idaho panhandle this weekend.  Spokane looks to possibly get significant snow. 

[Snowman5678]

Heading over pass. Should be fun

Have fun ! I was up there yesterday and it was beautiful. Really distinct snowline right before the pass too. 

[Prairiedog]

Not sure if the Candian geese are sensing something but they have been flying over our house from north to south in huge flocks this morning: there have been six different flocks of them over the last hour and a half. Just thought it was interesting and unusual for this late in the season as this usually happens in October and early November. For some reason they are high tailing it out of the area now.

More and more geese are not even migrating anymore as local populations have exploded over the last 10 years or so.  Whereas (as a birdwatcher) I only saw migrating geese a few times in the fall and spring, now there are literally tens of thousands of resident geese in the Willamette Valley.  I see flocks almost everyday.  My hunch is that you are seeing urban geese. 

[Skagit Weather]

Another WRF run showing snow in the north sound. I'll take it!

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM also pretty wet for tomorrow night...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_045_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Another WRF run showing snow in the north sound. I'll take it!

 

12-27snow.gif

 

 

 

Here is the 72-hour snowfall map from the 12Z WRF

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.84.0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fantastic gfs run. I don't think it ll be a huge outlier actually. Cold air even makes it down past salem so that makes me happy. Even super lala land looks good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GEM also pretty wet for tomorrow night...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_045_0000.gif

The wetter the better tomorrow night the better.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 6-10, 8-14 day Analog Composite...
It simply does not get much better than this. Correlation scores need improvement, especially long range.

 

 

[westcoastexpat]

Fantastic gfs run. I don't think it ll be a huge outlier actually. Cold air even makes it down past salem so that makes me happy. Even super lala land looks good!

 

Why do you say that? 

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows snow for pretty much all of the interior of Western WA late next week. Considering how stingy that model is with snow when dealing with invading cold air masses it looks good. Not surprisingly it shows Bellingham getting absolutely frigid at that time.

 

As for tomorrow night...the operational models are certainly showing enough moisture for some snow to fall. Too bad the WRF has proven to be so poor at resolving these situations.

[antipex]

I see 1990 in that first map...

 

12z GFS 6-10, 8-14 day Analog Composite...
It simply does not get much better than this. Correlation scores need improvement, especially long range.

 

500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS 6-10, 8-14 day Analog Composite...

It simply does not get much better than this. Correlation scores need improvement, especially long range.

Some really nice events on that 8-14 day list.

[westcoastexpat]

12Z Canadian definitely not agreeing with the GFS.

[MossMan]

Another WRF run showing snow in the north sound. I'll take it!

 

12-27snow.gif

Wow! I like that map!

[snow_wizard]

12Z Canadian definitely not agreeing with the GFS.

That model did have a fabulous 0z run though and an excellent 0z ensemble.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some really nice events on that 8-14 day list.

January 2005

[MossMan]

Just stopped by the lake house...dark, drizzly, raw 39 degree morning. Hopefully it will be bright and white come Monday morning!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF is underway.....

[ShawniganLake]

12Z Canadian definitely not agreeing with the GFS.

looks fine for BC to me 

[seattleweatherguy]

Are those highs or lows? And Seattle would be near negative?

..... Nothing to see here. Save this image even if it doesn't happen

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122712/gfs_T2m_nwus_35.png

[ShawniganLake]

I suppose weatherphil is lounged back in his recliner, smoking a large cigar, has a giant smile on his face, and is flipping back and forth between this forum and the 12z GFS model loop. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Ensembles HR 180-240 many cold members. Looks good.

[Bryant]

Fantastic gfs run. I don't think it ll be a huge outlier actually. Cold air even makes it down past salem so that makes me happy. Even super lala land looks good!

Um... You already wrote off the 2nd blast, and now you don't think one of the best runs yet will be an outlier? Make up your mind

[snow_wizard]

Just stopped by the lake house...dark, drizzly, raw 39 degree morning. Hopefully it will be bright and white come Monday morning!

We have that exact same table on our patio.

[Bryant]

I'm calling it now...The reload isn't going to happen.

 

Fantastic gfs run. I don't think it ll be a huge outlier actually. Cold air even makes it down past salem so that makes me happy. Even super lala land looks good!

Sorry Andrew, had to quote you. It's a perfect example of how 99% of the members on here flip flop just as much as the models