December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Yes... and its very reliable as been established.    When it flips around between 3 possible scenarios (cold, warm, and normal) its definitely worth discussing to keep your psyche soothed.

 

It is VERY meaningful when it shows cold.   

 

Obviously I'm not going to base any kind of forecast off of the CFS.  I was just making the point that more runs than not have shown varying degrees of cold in early to mid January.

[Snow]

Per Scott Sistek, Newberg, OR just gusted to 69 mph and 40,000 PGE customers out of power in Washington County.

 

https://twitter.com/ScottSKOMO/status/543189177345404928

[HighlandExperience]

Obviously I'm not going to base any kind of forecast off of the CFS.  I was just making the point that more runs than not have shown varying degrees of cold in early to mid January.

 

I appreciate your optimistic outlook. I will start to worry if we don't see any cold and snow by the end of January.

[HighlandExperience]

Who cares??   Its not worth discussing.    Any of it.  

 

Just pushing some agenda with empty data,

 

Might happen... might not.   But the CFS just flails around endlessly so stop pinpointing when it flails in your direction.

 

You sound a bit snappy. I assume your power goes out quite a bit during wind storms.

[TT-SEA]

You sound a bit snappy. I assume your power goes out quite a bit during wind storms.

 

 

Almost never since 2006.   And the trajectory is not right for strong winds out here anyways.   

 

Been working long hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down here at my office on the Willamette River the wind is roaring. When I was in Keizer it was pretty tame, maybe 15-20mph. 

 

That 69 at "Newberg" was probably in the Chehelem Hills.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see a lot of people carrying on with their everyday lives.

[Tyler Mode]

WHOA...Clark County just jumped to 16,000 without power

 

45,000 in Portland

 

Yes the 69 mph was at that sensor Andrew.

 

37 mph is all so far here in BG.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say this is a better wind event then the one in October.

[FroYoBro]

I see a lot of people carrying on with their everyday lives.

Wow. Strange. 

 

Had a huge gust about 10 minutes ago. Lights have flickered a few times. 

[Farmboy]

Who cares??   Its not worth discussing.    Any of it.  

 

Just pushing some agenda with empty data,

 

Might happen... might not.   But the CFS just flails around endlessly so stop pinpointing when it flails in your direction.

 

Sometimes flailing is better than nothing.

[Tyler Mode]

71 mph near Newberg now...in the hills

 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=AU458&table=1&banner=off

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes flailing is better than nothing.

 

No.

[Rustysprocket]

Who cares??   Its not worth discussing.    Any of it.  

 

Just pushing some agenda with empty data,

 

Might happen... might not.   But the CFS just flails around endlessly so stop pinpointing when it flails in your direction.

This forum is "might happen, might not" most of the time.

[FroYoBro]

Power went out for 2 seconds. Restarted my router and internet connection.

 

December 11, 2014, never forget. 

[Brennan]

Pipe down Tim. No need to take SnowWizard's comments that aren't directed in any way towards you, personal.

[snow_wizard]

I appreciate your optimistic outlook. I will start to worry if we don't see any cold and snow by the end of January.

 

I'll be worried too, although it wouldn't be unheard of for a cold snap during a warm ENSO February ala 1995.  The odds are this winter will be pretty much done by late Jan.

[Deweydog]

This forum is "might happen, might not" most of the time.

 

That's called weather forecasting. 

[BLI snowman]

Don't care.    

 

He's brash. He's tough. He's Tim. Asking the hard questions on weather forums since 2005.

[Deweydog]

49.2 mph here in our little gully.  My neighbor's Xmas display is a mess.  Take that, Jesus!!!

[snow_wizard]

Almost never since 2006.   And the trajectory is not right for strong winds out here anyways.   

 

Been working long hours.

 

I figured something must be up.  You usually aren't this crabby.

[antipex]

I see a lot of people carrying on with their everyday lives.

 

Yep, I just saw someone out for a "normal" afternoon walk with a stroller, fighting with the wind.

 

Meanwhile, my building seems to be swaying slightly and I'm getting nauseous. 

[BLI snowman]

48mph so far at PDX, 53mph at SLE, power appears to be out at the more impressive locales now.

[TT-SEA]

I figured something must be up.  You usually aren't this crabby.

 

 

Low tolerance today.   Tired.    But hey... how about those crazy NWS employees and their massive balls??    

[snow_wizard]

What's up with Astoria getting so little wind.  Kind of unusual.

[bainbridgekid]

Afternoon AFD sticking with gusts to 60 and mentions two possible bursts of wind.

 

I'm still thinking this will be fairly significant and that SEA will break 50.

 

MESO MODELS STILL SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG WINDS INLAND AS WELL. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WRN WA TONIGHT. STRONG
SLY WINDS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL WA COAST AROUND 4-5
PM THEN SPREAD NWD. THE 4KM WRF-GFS SHOWS 40-45 KT SUSTAINED RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST SO WINDS SUSTAINED AT 40 WITH GUSTS 75 MPH STILL
SEEM LIKELY.

THE WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN BUT
HIGH WIND GUSTS STILL SEEM LIKELY FOR A COUPLE REASONS. FIRST
OFF...LIGHTING OFFSHORE IS INDICATING A LOT OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING SOME OF THE 55 KT WIND AT 925 MB DOWN AS
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60-65 MPH. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING THIS
STRONG OVER WRN OREGON NEAR THE COAST AND SOME WILLAMETTE VALLEY
LOCATIONS LIKE EUGENE ARE GUSTING OVER 50 MPH LAST HOUR. THIS WILL
BE TRANSLATING NWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SECONDLY...HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG MESO LOW TO THE NE OF THE OLYMPICS. THIS
INDUCES VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM ADMIRALTY INLET S THROUGH
PUGET SOUND. THE ECMWF/WRFGFS/HRRR ALL SHOW THIS OCCURRING. THIS
COULD GIVE A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF WIND TO PUGET SOUND/ADMIRALTY INLET.
THE FIRST...A 2-3 HOUR BURST OF WINDS WITH THE INITIAL BENT BACK
FEATURE AND PRESSURE RISES...AND A SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESO
LOW LATER IN THE EVENING.

ALL MODELS SHOW WINDS GRADUALLY EASING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ALOFT SO A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE AREA.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER DAY.

[snow_wizard]

Yep, I just saw someone out for a "normal" afternoon walk with a stroller, fighting with the wind.

 

Meanwhile, my building seems to be swaying slightly and I'm getting nauseous. 

 

Taking a baby out in wind like that is a bit crazy if you ask me.

[Tyler Mode]

58 mph recorded in Vancouver (trained spotter)

 

Here are some pics I pulled from FB of the wind damage so far.

[FroYoBro]

I'm getting some of the most impressive gusts in years here at the moment. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I'l

 

What's up with Astoria getting so little wind.  Kind of unusual.

It's coming.  Just too far south right now.  Give it 2 to 3 more hours.

 

All hell is going to break loose for some of us--particularly those of us West of the Sound and in the North Sound.

[TT-SEA]

58 mph recorded in Vancouver (trained spotter)

 

Here are some pics I pulled from FB of the wind damage so far.

 

 

Very impressive pics.    Windows blown out of high rise even.

[Snow]

58 mph recorded in Vancouver (trained spotter)

 

Here are some pics I pulled from FB of the wind damage so far.

 

Those are some crazy pictures! It just goes to show you what might happen if an even bigger Sou'Wester hit.

[snow_wizard]

I'l

 

It's coming.  Just too far south right now.  Give it 2 to 3 more hours.

 

All hell is going to break loose for some of us--particularly those of us West of the Sound and in the North Sound.

 

Maybe, but bear in mind all models shows the low rapidly weakening as it moves up the coast.

[Deweydog]

Those are non-event windows in that high rise, by the way.  

[Tyler Mode]

52 mph at my place.  Strongest in the 4 years I've lived here!  Haven't heard the wind roar like this before out here in BG.

 

The glass doors blew in at my work (Safeway)

[FroYoBro]

PDX gusted to 59. Yawn. 

[BLI snowman]

62mph at PDX now.

[FroYoBro]

PDX gusted to 59. Yawn. 

Oops, actually 62.

 

Edit:someone beat me

[bainbridgekid]

62mph at PDX now.

Sexy.

[Snow]

62mph at PDX now.

 

Wow!