December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

55mph at OLM.

[Kayla]

Strongest there since 74mph in 1995.

Did it really gust to 74mph in 1995? NWS record report from today is saying the 67mph gust today was highest since March 26th 1971.

[Phil]

I noticed the 12z ensemble shows a minus AO developing with sagging heights over the Eastern US. Your plan appears to be on target.

Thanks. My only worry now is getting the PV to split after New Years..if that occurs, you're golden. If not, long story short, most of the cold will probably slide east.

[antipex]

Strongest there since 74mph in 1995.

 

I believe that 74mph was measured differently... I think the NWS considers it 62mph.

[Front Ranger]

The Dalles hit -12c. That was legit arctic air. 

 

It's like you guys up north forget the Gorge exists. The Fraser isn't the only arctic air source for the west side.

 

Does The Dalles count as a west side station, though? How cold did PDX get?

[BLI snowman]

Did it really gust to 74mph in 1995? NWS record report from today is saying the 67mph gust today was highest since March 26th 1971.

 

Officially the 5 second gust in 1995 was 62mph, but instant gusts were 74mph.

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/December1995.html

 

Today the instant gusts were 67mph, so the 1995 storm was safely a bit stronger there.

[Kayla]

I believe that 74mph was measured differently... I think the NWS considers it 62mph.

Agreed. Back then they used a 3 second average for peak gusts. Now I believe it is 5 seconds.

[Front Ranger]

55mph at OLM.

 

That was the hourly report, did they go higher?

 

Now winds are reaching Tacoma. SEA should start seeing decent gusts over the next couple hours.

[Kayla]

Officially the 5 second gust in 1995 was 62mph, but instant gusts were 74mph.

 

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/December1995.html

 

Today the instant gusts were 67mph, so the 1995 storm was safely a bit stronger there.

Got it, makes sense. Thanks for the clarification. 

[snow_wizard]

The Mesonet only shows a peak of 59 for PDX.  What site do you guys use that shows more frequent updates?  No doubt it is fun watching this on the Mesonet map.  Right now you can see how the strong winds are begin deflected mostly right up Puget Sound and to the West side of the Sound.  The East Puget Sound lowlands have enough easterly winds to keep the south winds pushed west of here.  I've always wondered why this area usually escapes high winds in these cases.

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. Back then they used a 3 second average for peak gusts. Now I believe it is 5 seconds.

 

That is so lame.  It reminds of when they deballed the wind chill calculation.

[Jesse]

Does The Dalles count as a west side station, though? How cold did PDX get?

 

We're only talking about west side stations? When did that start? We're talking about intrusions of arctic air into the PNW. Mid-November 2014 was one.

 

PDX was 32 with east winds and a wintery mix the afternoon of 11/13. Basically unprecedented for that early.

 

There were also widespread teens westside.

[TT-SEA]

You can easily track the low with the coastal radar.

 

Clearly its well offshore and moving north.   The models runs like the Canadian showing it sliding up the west side of the Puget Sound were definitely wrong.

[snow_wizard]

Thanks. My only worry now is getting the PV to split after New Years..if that occurs, you're golden. If not, long story short, most of the cold will probably slide east.

 

What are the odds in your opinion?

[bainbridgekid]

The Dalles hit -12c. That was legit arctic air. 

 

It's like you guys up north forget the Gorge exists. The Fraser isn't the only arctic air source for the west side.

I'm talking specifically about Seattle. No doubt that was legit arctic air for the Gorge.

 

I also wouldn't consider an event arctic for Seattle if Chilliwak, BC saw 850's drop to -12 if Seattle didn't get below -6.

[GHweatherChris]

The Mesonet only shows a peak of 59 for PDX.  What site do you guys use that shows more frequent updates?  No doubt it is fun watching this on the Mesonet map.  Right now you can see how the strong winds are begin deflected mostly right up Puget Sound and to the West side of the Sound.  The East Puget Sound lowlands have enough easterly winds to keep the south winds pushed west of here.  I've always wondered why this area usually escapes high winds in these cases.

I see only a high gust of 59 as well.

[Jesse]

What are the odds in your opinion?

 

He's just trying to mess with your head.

[antipex]

The Mesonet only shows a peak of 59 for PDX.  What site do you guys use that shows more frequent updates?  No doubt it is fun watching this on the Mesonet map.  Right now you can see how the strong winds are begin deflected mostly right up Puget Sound and to the West side of the Sound.  The East Puget Sound lowlands have enough easterly winds to keep the south winds pushed west of here.  I've always wondered why this area usually escapes high winds in these cases.

 

NWS has been posting updates on Twitter.

[GHweatherChris]

NWS has been posting updates on Twitter.

Then the 67 should be on their observations then.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wonder what would happen here with a gust of 150?

[snow_wizard]

Events like these can bring the worst out of some of us and it isn't pleasant,

 

That is such a good point.  It's kind of a mystery why that is when big events are what weather forums live for.  The only reason I'm a bit down on windstorms is because of the trees in my yard.  I must admit I'm kind of excited about it now...especially considering MBY looks like it will get off easy.

[Bham_Guy]

I see only a high gust of 59 as well.

 

I found this site for peak gusts around the region:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=xxxpnspqr&wfo=pqr&font=120&version=0

[Front Ranger]

We're only talking about west side stations? When did that start? We're talking about intrusions of arctic air into the PNW. Mid-November 2014 was one.

 

PDX was 32 with east winds and a wintery mix the afternoon of 11/13. Basically unprecedented for that early.

 

There were also widespread teens westside.

 

It's not a big deal to me, but I know some people on here don't consider it a true Arctic outbreak for the west side (where most here reside, obviously) unless 850s get to -8C or below.

[GHweatherChris]

It's not a big deal to me, but I know some people on here don't consider it a true Arctic outbreak for the west side (where most here reside, obviously) unless 850s get to -8C or below.

I don't consider it a true arctic outbreak unless there is snow in my yard, otherwise it is just a cold snap.

[Jesse]

It's not a big deal to me, but I know some people on here don't consider it a true Arctic outbreak for the west side (where most here reside, obviously) unless 850s get to -8C or below.

 

It was an impressive cold event for mid-November, regionally. With an arctic source and some very cold air (850s in the -10 to -13c range) banked up against the east slopes of the Cascades.

 

Widespread 850s below -8c on the west side is a tall order for that early.

[Front Ranger]

Naselle Ridge near the S. WA coast saw a gust to 77 mph.

[Front Ranger]

It was an impressive cold event for mid-November, regionally. With an arctic source and some very cold air (850s in the -10 to -13c range) banked up against the east slopes of the Cascades.

 

Widespread 850s below -8c on the west side is a tall order for that early.

 

I agree. And Nov 1955 was probably the only time in airport records we've seen that happen that early.

[Front Ranger]

Ft. Lewis just saw a gust to 55 mph.

[Jesse]

I agree. And Nov 1955 was probably the only time in airport records we've seen that happen that early.

 

Yeah, I guess it's best to grade the event mid-last month on a curve since it was so early. It was about as arctic as you can get pre-11/15, aside from 1955.

 

Anyway, didn't mean to take things on a tangent there. Back to the windstorm posts.

[antipex]

I agree. And Nov 1955 was probably the only time in airport records we've seen that happen that early.

 

Interestingly enough Portland broke the high temp record for today... which was set in 1955.

[Phil]

What are the odds in your opinion?

I'd say 75% chance it happens in January. That said, the PV is going to fight it hard as it's still vertically stacked/barotropic...

[Deweydog]

Your parents let you operate the chain saw? Jealous.

Fisher Price...

[Deweydog]

Holy crap... how hard is it to treat an intersection like a 4 way stop!?!?!1

[Jesse]

Holy crap... how hard is it to treat an intersection like a 4 way stop!?!?!1

Amurikah!!!

[antipex]

Holy crap... how hard is it to treat an intersection like a 4 way stop!?!?!1

 

After observing some of the posters on this forum thread, fairly difficult, I'm guessing.

[Deweydog]

I'd say 75% chance it happens in January. That said, the PV is going to fight it hard as it's still vertically stacked/barotropic...

The hyperbole department is officially downgrading the Jaws music to the love theme from Endless Summer.

[Front Ranger]

Strong winds being reported now in Tacoma and Gig Harbor. Will be interesting to see the next update for The Narrows.

[Deweydog]

Amurikah!!!

Pants up don't loot!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Winds are averaging about 14, strongest gust has been 27 here. *yawn*  Jim should be happy though.

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting to see the 4PM pressure analysis have the low at 974mb. The MM5-NAM initialized it at 977 and the 12z WRF had it at 977 as well.

 

Looks to be holding together a bit better than progged, which is certainly a bias that the models seem to often succumb to.