December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It happened in December 1983 in the Rio Grande valley. Most were never replanted.

 

That was an insane cold spell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of down-in-the-dumps weather enthusiasts in the Portland area nine years ago tonight...

 

Epic Bust!

[BLI snowman]

A lot of down-in-the-dumps weather enthusiasts in the Portland area nine years ago tonight...

 

Not 29 years ago, though!

[BLI snowman]

Midmonth looks wet.

[Deweydog]

Props to Tim, by the way. He was an island when it came to predicting another blocky period around Thanksgiving just after the first cold shot was moving out.

[TT-SEA]

Midmonth looks wet.

 

I was just going to post that... makes perfect sense and is almost inevitable. Would expect a windstorm-favorable pattern to evolve eventually as well.

 

Maybe get us into position for some more fun around Christmas or New Years?

[antipex]

Fingers crossed!

 

They're more resilient than one might think. I took this photo in February in 18F weather with blowing snow and a gusty east wind.

 

[snow_wizard]

A lot of down-in-the-dumps weather enthusiasts in the Portland area nine years ago tonight...

 

And a happy one here!

[snow_wizard]

They're more resilient than one might think. I took this photo in February in 18F weather with blowing snow and a gusty east wind.

 

palm-in-snow.jpg

 

One of my neighbors lost one when it dropped to 8 here in Nov 2010.  The fact it went from quite warm to cold as quickly as it did may have had something to do with it.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like some powerful storms heading for the gulf of Alaska next week.

[westiztehbest]

The Euro EPS shows colder temps after the 20th of the month.

 

[snow_wizard]

The Euro EPS shows colder temps after the 20th of the month.

 

 

I would be surprised to see it that soon, but then again many of us were surprised to see this so soon after the last cold snap.  Maybe the CFS is onto something.

[wx_statman]

That was an insane cold spell.

Greatest coast to coast cold wave in modern US history.

[westiztehbest]

I would be surprised to see it that soon, but then again many of us were surprised to see this so soon after the last cold snap.  Maybe the CFS is onto something.

 

If you believe in the predictive power of the LRC (~40 days I think)...then our first colder anomalies began on Nov. 10th...approx 2.5 weeks after the jet became quite active in the Eastern Pac on Oct. 20th.  If you project out ~40 days from Nov. 10th...bingo...you get Dec. 20th.  If the jet become active in the next two days...and you project out 2.5 weeks...you also get Dec. 20th.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

They're more resilient than one might think. I took this photo in February in 18F weather with blowing snow and a gusty east wind.

 

palm-in-snow.jpg

 

That variety originates from high altitudes near the Himalayas, they aren't exactly California transplants. Palms in that area regularly see freezing lows and snowfall comparable with what we would get here in the lowlands. It would probably take something like Jan 1950 to knock them all out, and even then I'd expect to see a few come through it, they've been reported to survive down to -17F in Bulgaria.

 

 

There's an interesting read about one particular subset of this variety: http://www.gardenpalms.com/en%5CARTICLES/trachycarpus%20takil.aspx

http://www.gardenpalms.com/Userfiles/FotosProdGP/Trachycarpus%20takil%20(kalamuni)_WP_.jpg

[Front Ranger]

A lot of down-in-the-dumps weather enthusiasts in the Portland area nine years ago tonight...

 

Fun snowstorm in the Tacoma area

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like some powerful storms heading for the gulf of Alaska next week.

 

I'd be worried if it was looking dry and ridgy; looks decent for snow in the mountains and some interesting weather in the lowlands. Keeping the jet supressed over the west coast would likely favor us in an eventual transition back to -AO.

[wx_statman]

Speaking of palms, they grow them at 53N latitude in Galway, Ireland. The city has a 48/38 January average and rarely drops to freezing. All thanks to the Gulf Stream. Its an amazing contrast to the other side of the Atlantic, where Labrador has a subarctic climate with polar bears at the same latitude. In fact, you only have to get to 56N on the Labrador coast before you transition to a polar climate with sea level tundra.

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of palms, they grow them at 53N latitude in Galway, Ireland. The city has a 48/38 January average and rarely drops to freezing. All thanks to the Gulf Stream. Its an amazing contrast to the other side of the Atlantic, where Labrador has a subarctic climate with polar bears at the same latitude. In fact, you only have to get to 56N on the Labrador coast before you transition to a polar climate with sea level tundra.

 

At least our climate is better than that!

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is Uuuggly late in the run.  a nightmare for skiers.  We just might see the torch alternating with cold roller coaster continue.

[westiztehbest]

The ECMWF is Uuuggly late in the run.  a nightmare for skiers.  We just might see the torch alternating with cold roller coaster continue.

It's looking like our cold will come with an eventual drop in the PNA.  Until mid month...we'll be locked into a +PNA.

 

[Jesse]

23 at PDX this morning. Not too bad.

[luvssnow_spokane]

another delightfully chilly morning here at 20F... So cold that the swamp gas is starting to freeze

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very cold morning in the pdx metro area

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range gfs continues to be epicly wet

[MossMan]

Was 19 when I left my house about 45min ago. I wish we would stay cold and dry all week, most all of my snow is still preserved right now.

[HighlandExperience]

Long range gfs continues to be epicly wet

 

Cool wet westerly flow sounds nice.

[TT-SEA]

Was 19 when I left my house about 45min ago. I wish we would stay cold and dry all week, most all of my snow is still preserved right now.

 

 

I think the meltdown really starts here today... but melting snow in the sunshine is so much nicer than with sideways rain.   

[stuffradio]

Pattern repeat for around Christmas? http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-forecast-model-update-6/38330529

[TT-SEA]

Long range gfs continues to be epicly wet

 

 

New ECMWF weeklies...

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12021306_dec1a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12021307_dec1b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12021309_dec1c.png

[MossMan]

You know you are a weather freak when you pick your outdoor lighting with the thought of snow in mind. I wanted something that looked nice but was brighter than your typical Christmas lighting so I found these nice looking but bright lights that would pick up Falling snow perfectly. They did not disappoint. And I just find myself staring at the snow on the deck at night...with dog paw prints of course! Took this last night.

[TT-SEA]

Hoping for a few days of a serious inversion. Wanted to show an out-of-town friend how you can have 35F in the lowlands and 65F at Tiger Mountain.

 

 

Not going to happen.   A little rain comes in Thursday into Friday and then lots of mixing and SE flow over the weekend.

 

This is not an inversion set-up:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_132_precip_p06.gif

[Timmy]

Lots of ZR in central Oregon this morning, traffic cams look messy in madras and Redmond

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The pdx metro is colder than most places on the east side this morning.

[Timmy]

Got down to 19 in scappoose last night, looks like the coldest west side location. Some of te coast range was in the 40's for a low. Nice inversion setting up.

[TT-SEA]

Long range gfs continues to be epicly wet

 

 

12Z GFS is not 'epicly wet' at all... a few systems in the long range with breaks in between.   Maybe a short period of heavy rain with a baroclinic band at some point but nothing unusual.

[Parksvillewx]

At least in the upcoming pattern the ridge is more over the prairies then parked on us.  I'd take that with some rain periods over fog and gloomy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS is not 'epicly wet' at all... a few systems in the long range with breaks in between.   Maybe a short period of heavy rain with a baroclinic band at some point but nothing unusual.

 

A bit disappointing.

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS is not 'epicly wet' at all... a few systems in the long range with breaks in between.   Maybe a short period of heavy rain with a baroclinic band at some point but nothing unusual.

More than 8 inches of rain is not "epicly wet"?

[TT-SEA]

More than 8 inches of rain is not "epicly wet"?

 

Not really for December and that is up there.   

 

Nothing unusual for December down here... and the rain that does come is mostly warm rain so its not even that helpful for the mountains.   850mb temp is above 0 for almost the entire run at SEA.

 

Shows about 4 inches of rain down here and with plenty of breaks... it IS December dude.   It rains.