December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Tyler Mode]

Well, honestly, looking at last nights pic of his van and car, I thought for sure they would be totaled.  We were there when they pulled the car out today, scratched for sure, but the sunroof wasn't even broke and no damage to the car itself.

 

The van did have one broken window and some scratches, but again nothing major.

 

Then there's that truck haha

Looks repairable... Doh!

[Guest daniel1]

Yes Phil please make a Brett Anderson map displaying what the euro monthlies show. Would be much appreciated!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much is a Weatherbell subscription? I need to pony up for one. 

[GHweatherChris]

Paywalled, dude. I'm not allowed to post their graphics, but I can put a Brett Anderson map together if you'd like?

I know you can post images from pay sites.

 

And no, I do not want to see Brett Anderson maps, I can find those myself.

[Snow]

All, I lost power last night and didn't get it back until this afternoon and I have been busy cleaning up after the mess and helping my neighbors out. This truly was a great Sou'Wester! Wind gust of 89 mph Florence, 76 mph Newport, 71 mph Newberg, 69 mph Whibley Island, 67 mph at Portland, 62 mph Aurora, 61 mph McMinnville, 60 mph I-205 Bridge, Vancouver and West Seattle look to be the highest gust. This Sou'Wester brought strong winds because of it's classic path up the coastline. It's rare for a path like this and it's even more rare it has happened twice within 1.5 months! I don't know if this has been posted yet but here's the path of the Sou'Wester yesterday compared to others in the past. We are all lucky that it wasn't stronger like those other 3 Sou'Westers.

 

[Phil]

You can post sourced WXBell graphics.

WxBell does not provide the monthly ECMWF suite. I'd be nice if ECMWF were to loosen up, but they're a private enterprise/are not taxpayer funded.

[Phil]

I know you can post images from pay sites.

 

And no, I do not want to see Brett Anderson maps, I can find those myself.

You're kinda dumb, sometimes. This data comes straight from ECMWF...kk? I don't know how else to explain this to you.

[stuffradio]

How much is a Weatherbell subscription? I need to pony up for one. 

180/year or 200 something if you go monthly.

[GHweatherChris]

You're kinda dumb, sometimes. This data comes straight from ECMWF...kk? I don't know how else to explain this to you.

Wow.

 

You are such a class act.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How about this Phil. What is the average temp anomaly over Washington and over Oregon for January, February, and March on the EURO monthlies. Broken down by month. Can you just tell us that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very small stationary band of rain sitting over my location. It is absolutely pouring and has been for about an hour. It has done this with snow before. Going into the January 2013 "fogversion" a tiny band of snow sat over my house and dumped about 4" in 3 hours, stayed on the ground for almost two weeks. Still the longest I've had snow on the ground up here in 3 years.

[Phil]

How about this Phil. What is the average temp anomaly over Washington and over Oregon for January, February, and March on the EURO monthlies. Broken down by month. Can you just tell us that?

I only have access to the 500mb geopotential data right now..the model is notoriously poor at depicting surface temps, regardless..

[BLI snowman]

Probable snow in the gorge next week.

[stuffradio]

00z alert for Christmas eve?

[MossMan]

00z alert for Christmas eve?

What does it show?

[stuffradio]

What does it show?

528 thickness and -7 850 temps on Christmas.

[Parksvillewx]

What does it show?

 

[MossMan]

528 thickness and -7 850 temps on Christmas.

That would work. Hey the GFS led the way with the windstorm, maybe it will be the king of models once again.

[MossMan]

Thought I saw lightning to my south about an hour ago, after looking at the radar it very well could have been.

[Bham_Guy]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning6.jpg

[snow_wizard]

 

WTF.  Where did that come from?

[snow_wizard]

Something is defintitley starting to show up on the ensemble beginning by the 23rd or so.  A lot of moderately cold members.

 

[snow_wizard]

Another thing well worth noting is the GFS and the ensemble have gone to showing a pretty major AR event aimed at WA in the 8 to 10 day period with a flat ridge of high pressure centered just off the West Coast.  A classic set up before a cold wave.

[westiztehbest]

Another thing well worth noting is the GFS and the ensemble have gone to showing a pretty major AR event aimed at WA in the 8 to 10 day period with a flat ridge of high pressure centered just off the West Coast.  A classic set up before a cold wave.

 

I noticed.  I haven't been to enthused about watching models this week but tonights 00z run has me interested again.  Tuesday/Thursday/Friday of next week look like decent shots at light snowfall.  Beyond that...I'm feeling better about cold chances around Xmas considering the PNA looks to potentially return to 'normal' as opposed to remaining positive (see below).  For a few days I dismissed the cold tendencies that were shown last week but now I'm thinking perhaps the models will come back around.  We'll see of course.

 

[Timmy]

06z shows it too, for around the 24th...

[MossMan]

06z shows it too, for around the 24th...

Could it be a Christmas miracle? The PNA forecast is looking much more encouraging than it did yesterday morning as well. I am personally writing Santa as we speak and adding Dec 2008 pics in the envelope.

[MossMan]

11,000 homes still without power in Snohomish Co. They are starting to get a bit testy on the PUD Facebook page. Feeling pretty fortunate I was only out for 9hrs.

[TT-SEA]

Since they upgraded hardware... the MM5 12km and 4km versions now update at the same speed and both are much faster than before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

THe 06z is another step in the right direction. Not only does it give the ski resorts some light snow next week it drops heavy snow on them with the trough right before Christmas. The week after Christmas looks very good for some fake cold.

[Jesse]

THe 06z is another step in the right direction. Not only does it give the ski resorts some light snow next week it drops heavy snow on them with the trough right before Christmas. The week after Christmas looks very good for some fake cold.

 

If we really are going to see a large scale retrogression in early January, a scenario like the 06z leading up to it would make sense IMO.

[TT-SEA]

The next week still looks mostly dry on the 12Z GFS.

[Front Ranger]

Another thing well worth noting is the GFS and the ensemble have gone to showing a pretty major AR event aimed at WA in the 8 to 10 day period with a flat ridge of high pressure centered just off the West Coast.  A classic set up before a cold wave.

 

Doesn't look like the Euro has really been discussed much, but the 0z and several runs prior have hinted at that flat ridge pattern for the West Coast as well. The 0z took it a step further and showed energy starting to cut off/dig south towards Hawaii in the Pacific, another precursor sometimes to a cold blocking pattern for the West.

 

Of course, this is out at day 10, but the general idea has been semi-consistent for a few runs with a few models now.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I also see the Canadian ensemble has some cold looking members now.  The mean on the Canadian suggests a cold inversion pattern developing during week two.  Very much the type of pattern Phil has suggested before things get really cold in January. 

[TT-SEA]

Since we are tracking the week of Christmas... here is the new 12Z Canadian for 12/23 at 240 hours.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[MossMan]

Since we are tracking the week of Christmas... here is the new 12Z Canadian for 12/23 at 240 hours.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

Well that doesn't look snowy...thanks a lot Santa.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS continues to show decently low snow levels with lots of moisture on Christmas Eve.  No lowland snow, but lots for the mountains.  Our first real shot at mixing cold air with lots of moisture so far this season.  The models are struggling big time after day 10.  A big pattern change is in the works and it will take time to sort it out.  I think the East turns cold first and then it retrogrades with time.

 

On another note it appears some places will likely freeze tonight.  It would be my first freeze of the season without a huge block and cold continental air being in the picture.

[TT-SEA]

Well that doesn't look snowy...thanks a lot Santa.

Trough over the Midwest might be a problem that week.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS at the 240 hours:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[Front Ranger]

General idea of flat-ish ridging over the West/coast is still there, just with that oddball low pressure system thrown in. EDIT: referring to Canadian

[TT-SEA]

Thank you Fred.