December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Brett's update into January...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-january-1/38850090

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12120341_dec11a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12120342_dec11b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12120343_dec11c.png

[MossMan]

What the heck Tim, I currently have heavy rain coming down, I thought you said it was going to be dry from now until Christmas!

 

I was thinking we would have been in the clear by now, guess the convergence does not want to give up!

[TT-SEA]

What the heck Tim, I currently have heavy rain coming down, I thought you said it was going to be dry from now until Christmas!

 

I was thinking we would have been in the clear by now, guess the convergence does not want to give up!

Sun is shining here.

[MossMan]

Sun is shining here.

These are times when I dislike the PSCZ!

[TT-SEA]

These are times when I dislike the PSCZ!

Many times I feel the same. Unless it is snow and then it can stay parked for as long as it wants.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Heading out to Leavenworth today, one of there years I'll get to be there during a genuine snowstorm. Not this year.

 

It's goregous up there!  Make sure you stop by the hat shop!  Have fun!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF at 240 hours... better.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014121312!!chart.gif

[Alex_Snakes]

Heading out to Leavenworth today, one of there years I'll get to be there during a genuine snowstorm. Not this year.

I was up there when we had the 2008 snow storm. Below zero temps... And lots of snow!

[Deweydog]

At this point it'd be nice if we had a few models that just initialized at 240 hours.  

[Snowman5678]

Was right under the t-storm last night! Not bad! I didn't see a single tree down anywhere yesterday. Only damage I saw was the scaffolding that came down in Redmond in the wind. Saw way more damage with the October 26th storm even though the winds were about on par...probably because there were leaves on the trees in October.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is really on the right track at the end of the run.  Flat West Coast ridge starting to retrograde.

[snow_wizard]

One thing that really gets my notice is the 1030+ surface high over the Western GOA.  That feature usually means good stuff is coming.  The ECMWF MJO forecast strongly supports cold weather for us in the not too distant future.

 

[snow_wizard]

Was right under the t-storm last night! Not bad! I didn't see a single tree down anywhere yesterday. Only damage I saw was the scaffolding that came down in Redmond in the wind. Saw way more damage with the October 26th storm even though the winds were about on par...probably because there were leaves on the trees in October.

 

This storm was much worse for places from I-5 westward.

 

The thunderstorm last night has to be one of the least likely I have seen.  We had a surface high sitting right on top of us.

[westiztehbest]

A few tweets from @MJVentrice:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MossMan]

This storm was much worse for places from I-5 westward.

 

The thunderstorm last night has to be one of the least likely I have seen.  We had a surface high sitting right on top of us.

Yeah Snohomish Co west of I-5 and Island counties got the brunt of it. I have a friend that lives just a few miles west of me and they still don't have power, along with about 11,000 others.

[Phil]

Late-December might be too early, but the transition in early/mid January has been expected by TheNewBigMack and myself for a long time now.

[TT-SEA]

This storm was much worse for places from I-5 westward.

 

The thunderstorm last night has to be one of the least likely I have seen.  We had a surface high sitting right on top of us.

 

C-zone as West Coast trough departed.    Colder air was coming in and flow turned westerly... ECMWF showed it happening all along.   High pressure was building in... not directly over us.

[snow_wizard]

A few tweets from @MJVentrice:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting stuff.  It does indeed appear the Nino is about to really lose it's grip.  The subsurface anom maps indicate the anomalous warm water is about to run out and there are no WWBs forecast to cause any more down welling Kelvin waves in the near future. 

 

The bit about the EPO is most interesting.  Phil predicted that would tank first and then the PNA would go next.  So far he has nailed the progression.  I do think there is a small chance the PNA could tank sooner than Phil has indicated, but for now I think that is likely to happen moreso in early Jan.

[snow_wizard]

Late-December might be too early, but the transition in early/mid January has been expected by TheNewBigMack and myself for a long time now.

 

I REALLY like what I'm seeing right now.  Should be a fun ride for much of the country.

[IbrChris]

Taking a look at morning runs as well as the overnight Euro the main signal heading into the later 6-10 and 11-15 is the east turning colder...perhaps much colder depending on the degree of -NAO and Greenland blocking we see. Still not much consensus on this with members on both Euro and GFS split between a Greenland block and one situated over far eastern Canada...though the results across the eastern US are fairly unchanged. Great Lakes to SE are favored to see the most significant below normal anomalies.

 

Out west a lot of disagreement on the GFS ensembles heading into the late 6-10 and 11-15. Overnight Euro had better agreement in its members putting a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska/N-central Pacific during the 11-15. GFS on the other hand was nearly split between two polar opposite solutions...a ridge near 160 W and a trough near 160 W. Ridging appears rather broad, suggesting a backdoor push of arctic air west of the Rockies if anything, similar to last event in late Nov. Depending on position/orientation of the ridge over eastern Canada/Greenland we could see most if not all of the arctic air remain east of the Continental Divide per the norm. Euro on the other hand gives us about 60% odds of a decent ridge near 160 W...which may end up centered over Alaska. It suggests that arctic air may move south through interior BC as well as the Prairies in the 11-15.

 

The theme as far as precip...turning drier for the west coast in the extended. Below normal precip is favored for the latter half of December in the PNW as ridging developing offshore is favored. Even if we see a trough near 160 W it would tend to amplify a ridge overhead...which while it would allow for weak systems to move in from time to time, wouldn't suggest to me an overly wet pattern for the PNW (moreso for BC and SE Alaska).

 

So while the extended isn't looking overly encouraging for arctic air, at least not a region-wide arctic blast like last Dec, it does appear to transition to a more favorable longwave pattern as we head into late December. Stay tuned.

[Phil]

I REALLY like what I'm seeing right now. Should be a fun ride for much of the country.

I'm with you. The sooner the PV bifurcates, the better for the west, IMO. Right now, the modeling & wave activtity in general favors early January, but the warming/wave-1 response should get going by late December..

[Poulsbo Snowman]

 

Taking a look at morning runs as well as the overnight Euro the main signal heading into the later 6-10 and 11-15 is the east turning colder...perhaps much colder depending on the degree of -NAO and Greenland blocking we see. Still not much consensus on this with members on both Euro and GFS split between a Greenland block and one situated over far eastern Canada...though the results across the eastern US are fairly unchanged. Great Lakes to SE are favored to see the most significant below normal anomalies.

 

Out west a lot of disagreement on the GFS ensembles heading into the late 6-10 and 11-15. Overnight Euro had better agreement in its members putting a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska/N-central Pacific during the 11-15. GFS on the other hand was nearly split between two polar opposite solutions...a ridge near 160 W and a trough near 160 W. Ridging appears rather broad, suggesting a backdoor push of arctic air west of the Rockies if anything, similar to last event in late Nov. Depending on position/orientation of the ridge over eastern Canada/Greenland we could see most if not all of the arctic air remain east of the Continental Divide per the norm. Euro on the other hand gives us about 60% odds of a decent ridge near 160 W...which may end up centered over Alaska. It suggests that arctic air may move south through interior BC as well as the Prairies in the 11-15.

 

The theme as far as precip...turning drier for the west coast in the extended. Below normal precip is favored for the latter half of December in the PNW as ridging developing offshore is favored. Even if we see a trough near 160 W it would tend to amplify a ridge overhead...which while it would allow for weak systems to move in from time to time, wouldn't suggest to me an overly wet pattern for the PNW (moreso for BC and SE Alaska).

 

So while the extended isn't looking overly encouraging for arctic air, at least not a region-wide arctic blast like last Dec, it does appear to transition to a more favorable longwave pattern as we head into late December. Stay tuned.

 

 

I love it when the pros come here with this kind of analysis.  My only personal disagreement is with the last paragraph.  I personally think it's more likely that the models are going to lock into some sort of arctic blast around Christmas--most likely around the 27th or 28th timeframe.   As a sidenote, I think as upgrades are made to the GFS, we are going to find more instances of it making the early prognosis over the currently favored Euro--which is going to drive everyone crazy since they won't know which model to trust as time goes on. 

[snow_wizard]

I love it when the pros come here with this kind of analysis.  My only personal disagreement is with the last paragraph.  I personally think it's more likely that the models are going to lock into some sort of arctic blast around Christmas--most likely around the 27th or 28th timeframe.   As a sidenote, I think as upgrades are made to the GFS, we are going to find more instances of it making the early prognosis over the currently favored Euro--which is going to drive everyone crazy since they won't know which model to trust as time goes on. 

 

That's right.  I think the date for the GFS upgrade to be available to everyone is the 17th.  Perfect timing.

[Gradient Keeper]

12Z ECMWF at 240 hours... better.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014121312!!chart.gif

I'd argue this is the best operational run we've seen in 7-10 days. I can see real promise if this solution shows up on future runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like what I'm seeing in the late December time frame, but not on the scale of an arctic outbreak. That is doubtful in that timeframe. What I think is more likely is some kind of cool/cold troughing while most of the bulk of the cold air slides east. A good shot of snow to get most ski resorts up and running and maybe snow levels down to 1000-2000' and potentially lower in the PSCZ. Then some kind of ridging moves in and we get cold air trapped in the valleys/basins. Something like early January 2011 or January 2013.

[bainbridgekid]

That's right.  I think the date for the GFS upgrade to be available to everyone is the 17th.  Perfect timing.

The Parallel GFS run at 13km resolution is already available at this great site:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[snow_wizard]

The Parallel GFS run at 13km resolution is already available at this great site:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

 

It sure looks similar to the Euro at day 10.

[snow_wizard]

I like what I'm seeing in the late December time frame, but not on the scale of an arctic outbreak. That is doubtful in that timeframe. What I think is more likely is some kind of cool/cold troughing while most of the bulk of the cold air slides east. A good shot of snow to get most ski resorts up and running and maybe snow levels down to 1000-2000' and potentially lower in the PSCZ. Then some kind of ridging moves in and we get cold air trapped in the valleys/basins. Something like early January 2011 or January 2013.

 

You may be right about late December, but I think after that we get blasted.   Arctic air this month is looking a tad more possible than it had been.

 

I can see nothing is going to convince you we are going to get very cold in the not too distant future.

[snow_wizard]

The CPC analogs to the 12z GFS are really interesting.   More La Nina analog years showing up while we are still consistently seeing matches to Dec 2006 and 2003.  A really surprising one was 12-12-1998.

[Front Ranger]

I'd argue this is the best operational run we've seen in 7-10 days. I can see real promise if this solution shows up on future runs.

 

Yup, the 12z carries what the 0z showed a step further, by cutting off that low near Hawaii. As many of us know, that's often what happens as a NE Pacific blocking ridge begins amplifying.

[bainbridgekid]

It sure looks similar to the Euro at day 10.

Yep. Remarkably similar.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014121312!!chart.gif

[Front Ranger]

It is similar for sure, but that mega-low it has over the eastern Aleutians is no good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Though still an outlier on the Nino side it looks like the CFS is starting to settle back toward reality as we get toward next summer. 

[snow_wizard]

I'll tell you guys...I'm all in for a very late Dec or Jan Arctic blast.  I can just taste this one.

[TT-SEA]

I'll tell you guys...I'm all in for a very late Dec or Jan Arctic blast. I can just taste this one.

Jinx.

 

Don't do this to yourself. Just take it as it comes. Life goes on either way.

 

Even small details in a good pattern have been known throw you into depression and anger.

[TT-SEA]

Though still an outlier on the Nino side it looks like the CFS is starting to settle back toward reality as we get toward next summer.

Thanks for the update! Keep us posted on the CFS for next summer as we go through December.

 

I need to know what will happen 7/17/2015. How extensive will the morning clouds be that day? CFS should have that locked in now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'll tell you guys...I'm all in for a very late Dec or Jan Arctic blast. I can just taste this one.

Oh Jim ... Please do not do this to yourself again. Not saying it won't happen but ... It is quite aways out... We could just end up being cold and dry, or the ridge could be too close to allow snow. There are just so many variables at this point.

[Deweydog]

Thanks for the update! Keep us posted on the CFS for next summer as we go through December.

 

I need to know what will happen 7/17/2015. How extensive will the morning clouds be that day? CFS should have that locked in now.

The victims of past marine pushes wouldn't appreciate this sarcastic take on long range summer forecasting. Shame on thee.

[snow_wizard]

Oh Jim ... Please do not do this to yourself again. Not saying it won't happen but ... It is quite aways out... We could just end up being cold and dry, or the ridge could be too close to allow snow. There are just so many variables at this point.

 

On paper all of the I's are dotted and T's crossed for it to happen.  A lot of people agree on this.

 

Talk to me 5 or 6 weeks from now if it doesn't happen.

[TT-SEA]

The victims of past marine pushes wouldn't appreciate this take on long range summer forecasting. Shame on thee.

The models look terrible for late 2019 into early 2020. Still time for it to turn around though.

 

Andrew will keep us posted. I think he is the new king of meaningless data.