December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

We have cleared out nicely this afternoon after some heavy rain this morning. Temp at 44 and starting to drop, perhaps a freeze tonight?

[MossMan]

The models look terrible for late 2019 into early 2020. Still time for it to turn around though.

 

Andrew will keep us posted. I think he is the new king of meaningless data.

Hopefully you have some stress free days coming up? We need you at 100% for when the arctic blast hits us on the 26th!!

[Deweydog]

On paper all of the I's are dotted and T's crossed for it to happen. A lot of people agree on this.

 

Talk to me 5 or 6 weeks from now if it doesn't happen.

Just for accuaracy's sake, who all are saying specifically that a PNW Arctic outbreak is essentially an inevitability in the next 30 days?

 

Let's get this out on the table so everyone can see.

[bainbridgekid]

On paper all of the I's are dotted and T's crossed for it to happen.  A lot of people agree on this.

 

Talk to me 5 or 6 weeks from now if it doesn't happen.

The issue is that no amount of I dotting and T crossing will ever make it prudent to go all in on an arctic blast 3 weeks out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z shows a MASSIVE arctic blast for the eastern 2/3 of the US in the long range. Looks like inversion central over in these parts.

[MossMan]

Just for accuaracy's sake, who all are saying specifically that a PNW Arctic outbreak is essentially an inevitability in the next 30 days?

 

Let's get this out on the table so everyone can see.

I'm all in!

[bainbridgekid]

It is similar for sure, but that mega-low it has over the eastern Aleutians is no good.

18z looks better. That mega-low is much further West which would at least open the door for retrogression.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121318/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

[TT-SEA]

Just for accuaracy's sake, who all are saying specifically that a PNW Arctic outbreak is essentially an inevitability in the next 30 days?

 

Let's get this out on the table so everyone can see.

Everyone is saying it... stop asking silly questions. There is no doubt this will happen and little question that the goodies will arrive. Lots of goodies. Yum!!

[Phil]

Major wave-1 Strat response with NPAC anticyclonic breaking on 18z GFS...classic precursor to a PNW blast w/ given tropical forcings going forward..just need to see the PV bifurcate..

 

Everything looks on track so far [knocks on wood]

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/0bEQJ1/1024.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For clarification sake I was posting about the CFS ENSO forecast...

[snow_wizard]

Just for accuaracy's sake, who all are saying specifically that a PNW Arctic outbreak is essentially an inevitability in the next 30 days?

 

Let's get this out on the table so everyone can see.

 

Say within the next 35 days.

 

I'm actually not going to let it stand that I always willy nilly predict Arctic blasts that don't happen (not saying you accused me of that).  I think most of the ones I've went all in for in recent years have verified.  As for snow...I'm not going to hazard a guess.  The lack of snow is what griped me last winter, but that is something entirely different altogether. 

[Deweydog]

Everyone is saying it... stop asking silly questions. There is no doubt this will happen and little question that the goodies will arrive. Lots of goodies. Yum!!

He may be due. I don't think we've ever scored during one of his previous "all in" caliber evolutions of grandeur.

[bainbridgekid]

The 18z shows a MASSIVE arctic blast for the eastern 2/3 of the US in the long range. Looks like inversion central over in these parts.

It does show some chilly Fraser outflow on Christmas and a glancing blow with arctic air sliding just to the East.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121318/gfs_T850_namer_41.png

[antipex]

Everyone is saying it... stop asking silly questions. There is no doubt this will happen and little question that the goodies will arrive. Lots of goodies. Yum!!

 

Are you working long hours again?

[TT-SEA]

He may be due. I don't think we've ever scored during one of his previous "all in" caliber evolutions of grandeur.

You are right... he is due. For a 50+ year-old man he does maintain his child-like wonder. Have to give him that.

[TT-SEA]

Are you working long hours again?

No... and its a beautiful day.

[Phil]

Wow, nice O^3 transport..strong BDC/wave activity flux = coast to coast cold in Jan during/following SSW

 

http://catchmypicture.com/M7C9gw.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KORD

[Phil]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KORD

Yeah 18z was the coldest yet here..would give us subzero temperatures again..

[snow_wizard]

18z looks better. That mega-low is much further West which would at least open the door for retrogression.

 

I love that surface high complex over the NE Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah 18z was the coldest yet here..would give us subzero temperatures again..

 

It appears the big change is growing near.

[snow_wizard]

He may be due. I don't think we've ever scored during one of his previous "all in" caliber evolutions of grandeur.

 

I'm pretty sure you're wrong.

[snow_wizard]

The issue is that no amount of I dotting and T crossing will ever make it prudent to go all in on an arctic blast 3 weeks out.

 

There are certain times everything lines up perfectly enough to take the chance.  To this day I still say December 1990 was the one that I would have bet a good deal of money on a good month is advance.   I even did an article for the company newspaper where I was working at the time and nailed the blast almost to the day.  People were royally pissed off at me, because they thought I had some kind of control over it.  A few weren't joking.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensemble should be really interesting.  The operational GFS and parallel GFS were both quite different than the 12z.  At day 10 (the furthest out the parallel model goes), it appears more favorable for the cold to drop further west than the regular operational model.  Even the operational drop 850s to -6 over SEA.

[Prairiedog]

Just made it into Leavenworth. 37° and sunny. Stevens Pass was the only point on the drive below freezing and snowy.

This may be the second Dec 28-Jan 1 that we have had to cancel our trip to Mountain Home Lodge (1,000ft above Leavenworth).  Three years ago we had about 15" on the ground for snowshoeing and sledding but last year at that time, nothing.  We always celebrate our anniversary there and usually don't have trouble with snow.  This year, just a trace on the ground at the lodge down from several inches from last week.  Nothing in the near future that I can see.  Need to cancel early next week if it's not going to snow then.  Stinks.  All the resorts are going to suffer as well. 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensemble has 5 solidly cold members for the NW...at least it appears that way from the 500mb progs.  3 other members are either close to being good or about to get good right at the end.  Huge progress.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we will finally achieve a run of the mill cold / clear night tonight. 

[Tyler Mode]

Not here...never did clear.  I see the coast was nice and sunny, fog and cloudy here.

Looks like we will finally achieve a run of the mill cold / clear night tonight. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yup, the 12z carries what the 0z showed a step further, by cutting off that low near Hawaii. As many of us know, that's often what happens as a NE Pacific blocking ridge begins amplifying.

Yup, exactly. You can see the main players. Flat ridge off the west coast, cut-off Kona low north of Hawaii, shortwave in Gulf of Alaska... Appears to be about to slide southeast and shove the ridge westward to some degree with a ridge over the southeast U.S. I can see real promise for retrogression if this solution shows up on future runs.

[bainbridgekid]

The 18z ensemble should be really interesting.  The operational GFS and parallel GFS were both quite different than the 12z.  At day 10 (the furthest out the parallel model goes), it appears more favorable for the cold to drop further west than the regular operational model.  Even the operational drop 850s to -6 over SEA.

Apparently the parallel GFS gets really cold in the long range.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently the parallel GFS gets really cold in the long range.

 

Apparently

[Deweydog]

Apparently the parallel GFS gets really cold in the long range.

 

It cetainly behooves Les Schwab to forecast colder weather.

[MossMan]

It cetainly behooves Les Schwab to forecast colder weather.

Got to get those blizzaks sold before the end of the year!

[Deweydog]

Got to get those blizzaks sold before the end of the year!

No doubt. Never been a fan of Schwabies. They come running... to sell you a crap set of tires.

[Gradient Keeper]

Apparently the parallel GFS gets really cold in the long range.

 

I'm a fan of this. If this is wrong do we still get free beef?

[Gradient Keeper]

Model Countdown           

00z GFS 43 minutes

00z GEM 1 hours 10 minutes

00z ECMWF 3 hours 10 minutes 

Looking to see if any of the operational runs mirror the 12z ECMWF which was by far the most promising for possible retrogression.

[snow_wizard]

Apparently the parallel GFS gets really cold in the long range.

 

 

Holy crap!  507 at PDX probably means more like 503 or 504 for SEA.  The amazing thing is how suddenly this pattern change has shown up.  It will take the models a while to stabilize and figure it out.  I'm glad to see the revised model showing this as opposed to the regular version.  That profile clearly shows it won't be a quicky either.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 40 here tonight.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Yep. Remarkably similar.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121312/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014121312!!chart.gif

 

Tommy Boy likeeee.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Holy crap!  507 at PDX probably means more like 503 or 504 for SEA.  The amazing thing is how suddenly this pattern change has shown up.  It will take the models a while to stabilize and figure it out.  I'm glad to see the revised model showing this as opposed to the regular version.  That profile clearly shows it won't be a quicky either.

 

This would be a little too cold for my tastes.  I don't need single digit highs.  Nevertheless, if it came with precipitation, I would take it!