December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Sparkling snow this morning...

 

[Brennan]

Pretty nice run of cold temps at BLI.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KBLI&num=72&raw=0

[Parksvillewx]

Sparkling snow this morning...

 

 

How much did you say you had there? Looks decent.

 

Any snow we got here is long gone..

[TT-SEA]

How much did you say you had there? Looks decent.

 

Any snow we got here is long gone..

Got about 4 inches total.

[Snowman5678]

Nothing better than drinking coffee looking out at all the snow glistening in the sun, it actually feels like winter! Gonna miss it when it melts but like what Tim said. Snow melting in the sun is way better than snow melting in the rain!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing better than drinking coffee looking out at all the snow glistening in the sun, it actually feels like winter! Gonna miss it when it melts but like what Tim said. Snow melting in the sun is way better than snow melting in the rain!

Don't you have school?

[Timmy]

Freezing fog in scappoose, roads by my place were actually pretty back due to heavy freezing fog.

[Abbotsford_wx]

19.2F here... coldest morning this year. Coldest night since Dec 8, 2013.

[Guest Winterdog]

Currently 23F after a low of 17F. Still have snow everywhere. Can't beat this kind of weather, I will be sorry to see it go but hopeful it will return around Christmas.

[wx_statman]

Not really PNW related, but this is from the same Arctic airmass we just had here:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=317

 

Nebraska saw the most pronounced temperature drops with York falling from an all-time late-season record high of 81°F at 1:35 p.m. on November 29th to 10° by 7:30 a.m. November 30th. An amazing 71° drop in just 18 hours! Other sites in the state saw similar drops: Norfolk from 77° (also a late-season record high) at 3 p.m. to 8° by 8 a.m. (a 69° fall in 17 hours), Hastings 80° (late-season record high) to 11° from 1 p.m. to 8 a.m., Grand Island from 78° to 10°, and Valentine 71° to 3° (1 p.m. to 6 a.m.).

Douglas, Wyoming fell 36° in one hour between 7 p.m.-8 p.m. on November 29th, from 52° to 16°. The temperature was 60° at 2 p.m. and 11° by 10 p.m. In Livingston, Montana the temperature fell 26° in six minutes: 47° at 7:53 a.m. to 21° by 7:59 a.m.! By noon it was down to 6°. Bozeman, Montana dropped from 49° at 8 a.m. (November 29th) to -22° at 5:42 a.m. (November 30th), a 71° drop within 24 hours, similar to York in Nebraska.
 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has more rain from Thursday onward than the 00Z run.    

[MossMan]

Not really PNW related, but this is from the same Arctic airmass we just had here:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=317

 

Nebraska saw the most pronounced temperature drops with York falling from an all-time late-season record high of 81°F at 1:35 p.m. on November 29th to 10° by 7:30 a.m. November 30th. An amazing 71° drop in just 18 hours! Other sites in the state saw similar drops: Norfolk from 77° (also a late-season record high) at 3 p.m. to 8° by 8 a.m. (a 69° fall in 17 hours), Hastings 80° (late-season record high) to 11° from 1 p.m. to 8 a.m., Grand Island from 78° to 10°, and Valentine 71° to 3° (1 p.m. to 6 a.m.).

 

Douglas, Wyoming fell 36° in one hour between 7 p.m.-8 p.m. on November 29th, from 52° to 16°. The temperature was 60° at 2 p.m. and 11° by 10 p.m. In Livingston, Montana the temperature fell 26° in six minutes: 47° at 7:53 a.m. to 21° by 7:59 a.m.! By noon it was down to 6°. Bozeman, Montana dropped from 49° at 8 a.m. (November 29th) to -22° at 5:42 a.m. (November 30th), a 71° drop within 24 hours, similar to York in Nebraska.

 

Even though our temp drop wasn't nearly as extreme, it was nearly 60 degrees at my house on Thanksgiving day, then on Friday morning it was 53 degrees at 5am, by 8am it was 42! Pretty big deal for our standards!

[Phil]

I have to say, the next 4 or 5 weeks are gonna be a drag for you guys..stay away from sharp objects, lol. At least there's light at the end of the tunnel w/ the midwinter progression..

 

I only have to wait 2-3 weeks

[epiceast]

Light at the end of the Euro tunnel.

[wx_statman]

There are some Nebraska members on the forum that were able to describe that in detail. Sounds like a once in a lifetime kind of event.

 

Its pretty amazing that the high plains went through this twice in November. There were similar drops in the mid-November blast but in areas further west, i.e. western NE and eastern CO/WY.

[TT-SEA]

Light at the end of the Euro tunnel.

 

 

For what?   Warm rain for everyone including the mountains??

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014120212!!chart.gif

[epiceast]

For what?   Warm rain for everyone including the mountains??

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014120212!!chart.gif

 

I am guessing the next frame would be major mountain snow.

[TT-SEA]

I am guessing the next frame would be major mountain snow.

 

 

Maybe... I was expecting more when I read your post.

[Phil]

For those looking at the MJO phase diagrams, keep in mind there's a lot of CCKW contamination ongoing...the real MJO is not that amplified, and has not progressed that far eastward yet..the MJO wave itself doesn't look favored to progress past region 7-8, assuming it gets there..? Walker/Hadley I/R looks blah..

 

Tropical forcing won't favor a -EPO/-NAO until the last week of December..the +PNA should flip later..

[ShawniganLake]

Not sure if there is a better thread to post this in, if so feel free to move this.  But I was kind of bored and did some research into snowfall trends for the past 100 years or so for my area.  Most people around here seem to think that winter snowfall has fallen off the charts in recent decades, but that really does not seem to be the case.  Yes, I copied and pasted this from I post I did on another forum, I apologize for the metric data, I am sure people can convert it if they care to:

 

 

 

 I think people's memories of big snow events and hearing other people tell stories of their childhood memories, ends up muddying up actual climate trends to some degree. If I look back through the weather history for Shawnigan Lake, it is very clear that we weren't being buried in snow year after year prior to 1950, in fact, the opposite is more true. I do agree that the climate has warmed some in recent decades, and arctic outbreaks have become less extreme. But I am not ready to blame that on global warming. I personally believe we could possibly slide back into a pattern more similar to the 50's, 60's and 70's.

Looking at snowfall data for Shawnigan Lake on a decadal scale, I think most people would be surprised that the least snowy decades were prior to 1950, and they were so by a wide margin (1940's). I doubt people in the 1940's were discussing what has gone wrong with our climate and lack of snowfall. Things change.

Below I have listed average yearly snowfall by decade and in order from least to most snowy. Again this is for Shawnigan Lake, maybe your neighborhood is different, but I would encourage people to look at the numbers before making conclusions. As you can see, it was a good time to be a snow lover in the 50's and 60's.

1940's - 58cm
1920's - 69cm
1990's - 72cm
1980's - 73cm
1970's - 91cm
2000's - 92cm
1930's - 93cm
1960's - 96cm
1950's - 110cm

[TT-SEA]

Not sure if there is a better thread to post this in, if so feel free to move this.  But I was kind of bored and did some research into snowfall trends for the past 100 years or so for my area.  Most people around here seem to think that winter snowfall has fallen off the charts in recent decades, but that really does not seem to be the case.  Yes, I copied and pasted this from I post I did on another forum, I apologize for the metric data, I am sure people can convert it if they care to:

 

 

 

 I think people's memories of big snow events and hearing other people tell stories of their childhood memories, ends up muddying up actual climate trends to some degree. If I look back through the weather history for Shawnigan Lake, it is very clear that we weren't being buried in snow year after year prior to 1950, in fact, the opposite is more true. I do agree that the climate has warmed some in recent decades, and arctic outbreaks have become less extreme. But I am not ready to blame that on global warming. I personally believe we could possibly slide back into a pattern more similar to the 50's, 60's and 70's.

 

Looking at snowfall data for Shawnigan Lake on a decadal scale, I think most people would be surprised that the least snowy decades were prior to 1950, and they were so by a wide margin (1940's). I doubt people in the 1940's were discussing what has gone wrong with our climate and lack of snowfall. Things change.

 

Below I have listed average yearly snowfall by decade and in order from least to most snowy. Again this is for Shawnigan Lake, maybe your neighborhood is different, but I would encourage people to look at the numbers before making conclusions. As you can see, it was a good time to be a snow lover in the 50's and 60's.

 

1940's - 58cm

1920's - 69cm

1990's - 72cm

1980's - 73cm

1970's - 91cm

2000's - 92cm

1930's - 93cm

1960's - 96cm

1950's - 110cm

 

Yeah... but the 2000s had only 4cm less on average than the 1960s.   

 

So the 2000s were just about as good for a snow lover as the 1960s up there.    At least by these numbers.

[wx_statman]

The 23 degrees at PDX this morning tied a record low, from 1985.

 

We also have a good chance at a record low max today as the current mark is 40 from 2004. This is the only remaining 40+ low maximum record at PDX between 11/11 and 2/23, so its due to be broken!

[ShawniganLake]

Things like this make great forum topics in their own right as they are easier to look up later when someone wants to do research.

Feel free to move it and related posts to its own thread, maybe under "Regional snowfall trends" or something.  I would be curious to see what other areas of the PNW have seen.  Maybe my area is an anomaly.  I think many would not have expected the 1920-1949 period to be less snowy than the 1980-2009 period. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am guessing the next frame would be major mountain snow.

I extrapolated the NAM and it agreed.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah... but the 2000s had only 4cm less on average than the 1960s.   

 

So the 2000s were just about as good for a snow lover as the 1960s up there.    At least by these numbers.

True, I guess the 50's is the only standout. 

[antipex]

NWS is calling for light freezing rain in the central Willamette valley and Portland area tomorrow morning; I don't see temps getting cold enough tonight with cloud cover though.

[wx_statman]

Not sure if there is a better thread to post this in, if so feel free to move this.  But I was kind of bored and did some research into snowfall trends for the past 100 years or so for my area.  Most people around here seem to think that winter snowfall has fallen off the charts in recent decades, but that really does not seem to be the case.  Yes, I copied and pasted this from I post I did on another forum, I apologize for the metric data, I am sure people can convert it if they care to:

 

 

 

 I think people's memories of big snow events and hearing other people tell stories of their childhood memories, ends up muddying up actual climate trends to some degree. If I look back through the weather history for Shawnigan Lake, it is very clear that we weren't being buried in snow year after year prior to 1950, in fact, the opposite is more true. I do agree that the climate has warmed some in recent decades, and arctic outbreaks have become less extreme. But I am not ready to blame that on global warming. I personally believe we could possibly slide back into a pattern more similar to the 50's, 60's and 70's.

 

Looking at snowfall data for Shawnigan Lake on a decadal scale, I think most people would be surprised that the least snowy decades were prior to 1950, and they were so by a wide margin (1940's). I doubt people in the 1940's were discussing what has gone wrong with our climate and lack of snowfall. Things change.

 

Below I have listed average yearly snowfall by decade and in order from least to most snowy. Again this is for Shawnigan Lake, maybe your neighborhood is different, but I would encourage people to look at the numbers before making conclusions. As you can see, it was a good time to be a snow lover in the 50's and 60's.

 

1940's - 58cm

1920's - 69cm

1990's - 72cm

1980's - 73cm

1970's - 91cm

2000's - 92cm

1930's - 93cm

1960's - 96cm

1950's - 110cm

 

I think your snowfall trends aren't representative of the region. You're in a pretty unique location where you get heavy upslope effect. As a result you can get heavy snowfalls out of otherwise unimpressive patterns, and that will skew your average. Most stations in the PNW lowlands have shown a long term decline in snowfall.

 

Also, how does your trend look when stretched back to the late 19th century? That would give a much clearer long term picture. The 1920's-1940's period featured a number of very mild and relatively snowless winters. So you're not going to get a very fair assessment of long term trends by starting there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 23 degrees at PDX this morning tied a record low, from 1985.

 

We also have a good chance at a record low max today as the current mark is 40 from 2004. This is the only remaining 40+ low maximum record at PDX between 11/11 and 2/23, so its due to be broken!

 

Wow... Kind of a low hanging fruit record, but good to see it. It is cold today, 35 at noon at PDX.

[wx_statman]

Wow... Kind of a low hanging fruit record, but good to see it. It is cold today, 35 at noon at PDX.

 

Yeah that 40 degree record needs to go. As does the 27 degree record low tomorrow, but we won't do it this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think your snowfall trends aren't representative of the region. You're in a pretty unique location where you get heavy upslope effect. As a result you can get heavy snowfalls out of otherwise unimpressive patterns, and that will skew your average. Most stations in the PNW lowlands have shown a long term decline in snowfall.

 

Also, how does your trend look when stretched back to the late 19th century? That would give a much clearer long term picture. The 1920's-1940's period featured a number of very mild and relatively snowless winters. So you're not going to get a very fair assessment of long term trends by starting there.

 

Its hard to say because of the data holes starting in the mid-90s, but I really don't think that Salem and Eugene's long term snowfall has declined as much as PDX and Seattle. I haven't actually studied it, but it seems like though it has declined they really didn't have quite as epic of winters back in the later 19th early 20th century in terms of snowfall. For Instance SLE only recorded 18" of snow in 1915-16. Or perhaps their older snowfall data is wildly inaccurate....

[ShawniganLake]

I think your snowfall trends aren't representative of the region. You're in a pretty unique location where you get heavy upslope effect. As a result you can get heavy snowfalls out of otherwise unimpressive patterns, and that will skew your average. Most stations in the PNW lowlands have shown a long term decline in snowfall.

 

Also, how does your trend look when stretched back to the late 19th century? That would give a much clearer long term picture. The 1920's-1940's period featured a number of very mild and relatively snowless winters. So you're not going to get a very fair assessment of long term trends by starting there.

I would have to look to see if I can find a station in the area that has a more complete long term data set.  I know there are ones going back farther but many have been removed over the years or have incomplete data. 

[Timmy]

NWS is calling for light freezing rain in the central Willamette valley and Portland area tomorrow morning; I don't see temps getting cold enough tonight with cloud cover though.

I don't see any model showing any moisture to speak of in the metro area, maybe the east foothills? Am I missing something?

[wx_statman]

Its hard to say because of the data holes starting in the mid-90s, but I really don't think that Salem and Eugene's long term snowfall has declined as much as PDX and Seattle. I haven't actually studied it, but it seems like though it has declined they really didn't have quite as epic of winters back in the later 19th early 20th century in terms of snowfall. For Instance SLE only recorded 18" of snow in 1915-16. Or perhaps their older snowfall data is wildly inaccurate....

 

Its hard to paint an accurate snowfall picture in general because of so many data gaps at COOP stations, both in modern times and in the old days. The first order stations like Portland and Seattle do show a decline. I wonder what the trends are at some of the stations in lower BC? At least among those that have been around for 100+ years and have reasonably complete snowfall records. Its too bad YVR only goes back to the 1930's and Abbotsford to the 1940's, since they have very complete snowfall records.

[wx_statman]

I would have to look to see if I can find a station in the area that has a more complete long term data set.  I know there are ones going back farther but many have been removed over the years or have incomplete data.

 

Its a problem we have on this side of the border too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is snowfall at SLE by decade

 

1920s: 6.2"

1930s: 7.7"

1940s: 3.6"

1950s: 9.5"

1960s: 9.6"

1970s: 5.7"

1980s: 4.5"

1990s: 9.7" (Only 1990-95, if they had kept snow data through the decade the latter half would have dropped it to around 5")

[Abbotsford_wx]

I would have to look to see if I can find a station in the area that has a more complete long term data set.  I know there are ones going back farther but many have been removed over the years or have incomplete data. 

 

Agassiz is the only one I can think of. I've actually been meaning to graph their data.

 

One thing to note in all of of this is that we have to be careful with correlating snowfall to temperature. Many of the coldest arctic events out here tend to have lower snowfall. I have little doubt that the 1920's-1940's were cooler than today despite the snowfall amounts that might lead us to think otherwise.

[BLI snowman]

The 23 degrees at PDX this morning tied a record low, from 1985.

 

We also have a good chance at a record low max today as the current mark is 40 from 2004. This is the only remaining 40+ low maximum record at PDX between 11/11 and 2/23, so its due to be broken!

 

Yeah, it'd be nice to clean that one out of the record books.

[BLI snowman]

True, I guess the 50's is the only standout. 

 

If you look pre-1920 up there, I'm sure you'll see a big increase in snowfall as well. The real decline began in the early 20th century, the 1800s were very snowy across the region relative to today.

[antipex]

I don't see any model showing any moisture to speak of in the metro area, maybe the east foothills? Am I missing something?

 

I don't either, both on the ECMWF and the upgraded GFS. Sometimes I wonder about our NWS peeps... 

[wx_statman]

Agassiz is the only one I can think of. I've actually been meaning to graph their data.

 

One thing to note in all of of this is that we have to be careful with correlating snowfall to temperature. Many of the coldest arctic events out here tend to have lower snowfall. I have little doubt that the 1920's-1940's were cooler than today despite the snowfall amounts that might lead us to think otherwise.

 

That era had its share of loser winters for both lack of snowfall and lack of cold. That will serve to bring the average down. The many awesome winters that we did get in that era will only carry you so far when looked at on a decadal level.