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December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


stuffradio

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Yeah that 40 degree record needs to go. As does the 27 degree record low tomorrow, but we won't do it this year.

 

You'd probably have to go back to 1880 to find real arctic air in Portland on December 3. Just one of those strange happenstances, since the mid to late November period has had a number of events.

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Its hard to say because of the data holes starting in the mid-90s, but I really don't think that Salem and Eugene's long term snowfall has declined as much as PDX and Seattle. I haven't actually studied it, but it seems like though it has declined they really didn't have quite as epic of winters back in the later 19th early 20th century in terms of snowfall. For Instance SLE only recorded 18" of snow in 1915-16. Or perhaps their older snowfall data is wildly inaccurate....

 

SLE's early snow history is wildly inaccurate, IMO. December 1909 for example is missing from the NCDC data, even though SLE recorded a depth of 13" and that was a huge snowstorm for the mid Willamette Valley. And I would assume that Salem had a lot more than that in 1915-16, as McMinnville had 36" and Corvallis was likely around 30".

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SLE's early snow history is wildly inaccurate, IMO. December 1909 for example is missing from the NCDC data, even though SLE recorded a depth of 13" and that was a huge snowstorm for the mid Willamette Valley. And I would assume that Salem had a lot more than that in 1915-16, as McMinnville had 36" and Corvallis was likely around 30".

There used to be a station in w. Salem. If memory serves it recorded about 25 inches in January 1916.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I have to say, the next 4 or 5 weeks are gonna be a drag for you guys..stay away from sharp objects, lol. At least there's light at the end of the tunnel w/ the midwinter progression..

 

I only have to wait 2-3 weeks :P

Agreed. No real chances at continental cold appear to be in the picture for December. Zonal will be the story for most the month, followed by cold in the East once the NAO flips in a few weeks. January seems to be the favored month, for many different reasons.

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The global climate through most of the 1800s was a very different animal, relative to the climate of the early 20th century.

 

There was likely a relatively abrupt expansion/poleward migration of the Hadley Cells between 1900-1950, along with a jump in global temperatures during that time. Reanalysis indicates strengthening subtropical highs and a poleward biased westerly belt/ferrel domain..this is probably responsible for the decline in the frequency of Arctic events..

 

The Dalton Minimum is thought to have significantly altered the tropical circulations and the dynamics of the systematic wave trains..lots of strange anomalies noted in the 19th century. When solar activity spiked later in the 1800s, the response was clear and abrupt..

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Agreed. No real chances at continental cold appear to be in the picture for December. Zonal will be the story for most the month, followed by cold in the East once the NAO flips in a few weeks. January seems to be the favored month, for many different reasons.

Agree 100%. I think the EPO will probably flip with the NAO at the end of December, but the subtropical Pacific (PNA et al) may take until early/mid January to respond..

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According to what, or perhaps whom, able to show why. ?

Thenewbigmack thoroughly explained everything in his MJO thread. I'd recommend you give it a read..lots of in-depth analysis done on his part.

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There is a correlation but the cause/effect aspect is disputed, generally by AGW advocates. I may repost this in the solar thread.

Only the most extreme warmists will argue for large scale anthropogenic forcing before 1950, if that's what you're referring to?

 

Even if you use IPCC-favored interpretations of radiative transfer and chemical/thermodynamic feedback(s), you don't have nearly enough anthropogenic forcing to account for any statistically significant climate change until approximately 1950..

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I also don't understand why so many people expect to find harmonic correlations between the variations in forcing(s) and systematic response(s)? In the long run they will sync up, but not on a decadal and/or subdecadal scale..there's far too much inertia and higher-frequency competition on the shorter timescales..

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He, might have included a preface to what he'd, said. And with it suggested some of the reasons more basic for / attachable to, the fairly obvious only more conjecture that he's posted above.

Have you been following the discussions here regarding MJO forcing on the general circulations?

 

What aspect(s) of his reasoning are you questioning?

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For the warming from the '80's on, the AGW community doesn't want to give any credit to the solar activity.

Funny how they're more than happy to invoke solar to explain the "hiatus" observed since 2001, though. The only problem with that is the fact that TSI is now at the highest levels observed in 13 years, along with the El Niño/+PDO/-QBO regime now underway...a perfect combo for spiking the global temperature.

 

There's no reason we shouldn't be warming exponentially, if these guys are correct.

 

Not much to show for it so far:

 

Hadcrut4:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/zzV8He/640.jpg

 

NOAA:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/7Z46Gv/640.jpg

 

RSS:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/KBa2xP/640.jpg

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Non-sequiter. And, ...

 

Assuming, a tad bit here. Aren't you. ? (Say, what you like. My questions had been addressed to "TheNewBigMack". @)

I still don't know what exactly you're inquiring about?

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Live pic... snow survives another day.

 

10847485_731721623562715_291159040975808

 

Live pic... snow survives another day.

 

10847485_731721623562715_291159040975808

Yeah nothing melted today at work so I should arrive home with pretty much the same amount of snow as when I left this morning!! Dew points must still be low.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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You'd probably have to go back to 1880 to find real arctic air in Portland on December 3. Just one of those strange happenstances, since the mid to late November period has had a number of events.

 

Looks like you're right. Downtown was 28/20 on 12-3-1880. Next coldest was 34/27 on 12-3-1909.

 

Its a real fluke that we can't get Arctic air on December 2-3rd.

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The global climate through most of the 1800s was a very different animal, relative to the climate of the early 20th century.

 

There was likely a relatively abrupt expansion/poleward migration of the Hadley Cells between 1900-1950, along with a jump in global temperatures during that time. Reanalysis indicates strengthening subtropical highs and a poleward biased westerly belt/ferrel domain..this is probably responsible for the decline in the frequency of Arctic events..

 

The Dalton Minimum is thought to have significantly altered the tropical circulations and the dynamics of the systematic wave trains..lots of strange anomalies noted in the 19th century. When solar activity spiked later in the 1800s, the response was clear and abrupt..

 

That's interesting stuff.

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Pdx hit 41. Ouch.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Driving up the back road a few minutes ago...

 

10475908_731729436895267_742583198910919

 

Do you think there will be:

 

A.  More snow on the ground at your house this time tomorrow?

 

B.  The same amount of snow on the ground at your house this time tomorrow?

 

C.  Less snow on the ground at your house this time tomorrow?

 

D.  A sequel to Cop and a Half?  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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If the month ended today, we would skip all the holiday music AND post a double digit negative departure. One can dream...

True. Though I could listen to "Let it snow" and "Dreaming Of A White Christmas" over and over and over...

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Do you think there will be:

 

A.  More snow on the ground at your house this time tomorrow?

 

B.  The same amount of snow on the ground at your house this time tomorrow?

 

C.  Less snow on the ground at your house this time tomorrow?

 

D.  A sequel to Cop and a Half?  

Not that you're jealous or anything.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I'm bored, so I checked. 1985 had 6, and 1955 had 5. 

 

Granted, both those Novembers had days that got easily colder than anything seen in Nov 2014, but the sheer number of cold lows this past month appears to be pretty much unprecedented for that station.

McChord got down to 16 last night which makes 10 out of their last 21 lows in the teens.

 

Pretty astounding, especially when combined with the complete lack of any semblance of chilly lows for the last several months.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I think your snowfall trends aren't representative of the region. You're in a pretty unique location where you get heavy upslope effect. As a result you can get heavy snowfalls out of otherwise unimpressive patterns, and that will skew your average. Most stations in the PNW lowlands have shown a long term decline in snowfall.

 

Also, how does your trend look when stretched back to the late 19th century? That would give a much clearer long term picture. The 1920's-1940's period featured a number of very mild and relatively snowless winters. So you're not going to get a very fair assessment of long term trends by starting there.

 

I'm not sure I would accuse the 1930s as having too many mild winters.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not sure if there is a better thread to post this in, if so feel free to move this.  But I was kind of bored and did some research into snowfall trends for the past 100 years or so for my area.  Most people around here seem to think that winter snowfall has fallen off the charts in recent decades, but that really does not seem to be the case.  Yes, I copied and pasted this from I post I did on another forum, I apologize for the metric data, I am sure people can convert it if they care to:

 

 

 

 I think people's memories of big snow events and hearing other people tell stories of their childhood memories, ends up muddying up actual climate trends to some degree. If I look back through the weather history for Shawnigan Lake, it is very clear that we weren't being buried in snow year after year prior to 1950, in fact, the opposite is more true. I do agree that the climate has warmed some in recent decades, and arctic outbreaks have become less extreme. But I am not ready to blame that on global warming. I personally believe we could possibly slide back into a pattern more similar to the 50's, 60's and 70's.

 

Looking at snowfall data for Shawnigan Lake on a decadal scale, I think most people would be surprised that the least snowy decades were prior to 1950, and they were so by a wide margin (1940's). I doubt people in the 1940's were discussing what has gone wrong with our climate and lack of snowfall. Things change.

 

Below I have listed average yearly snowfall by decade and in order from least to most snowy. Again this is for Shawnigan Lake, maybe your neighborhood is different, but I would encourage people to look at the numbers before making conclusions. As you can see, it was a good time to be a snow lover in the 50's and 60's.

 

1940's - 58cm

1920's - 69cm

1990's - 72cm

1980's - 73cm

1970's - 91cm

2000's - 92cm

1930's - 93cm

1960's - 96cm

1950's - 110cm

 

Your area has fared much better than down here over the past 20+ years.  In this area the decline in average snowfall has been astonishing.  SEA averaged 15.2" per winter from 1945 - 1975.  Since then they haven't averaged quite half that much.

 

Your area really rocked in the 2000s compared to most of us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Winters like 1930-31 and 1933-34 will drag the average down no matter how you slice it.

 

I would still take that decade any day of the week.  So many epic cold waves and snow events.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Already back down to freezing this evening.

 

OLM set a record low of 19 this morning and SEA missed theirs by 1 degree.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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