2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low

[hlcater]

A well advertised longwave trough should amplify and swing into the southwest early next week. As this wave goes neg tilt and lifts into the midwest, it seems probable that a wound up surface low will develop somewhere in the high plains and lift northeast with it. Current forecast models generally cut this pretty hard and, if I had to guess, this is probably a NE/NW IA/MN show right now. But it currently looks as if this system is likely to bring significant winter weather to someone. System is still a good 7 days out and there are significant timing differences between the EC/GFS, but has had quite a lot of support on guidance over the past 3-4 days, enough that starting a thread for it may be justified. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tony]

GFS Para ejecting the low south of the 4 corners region, GFS shows something similar. This is going to be south of 12z runs and I bet its gonna be HOT

[OmahaSnowFan]

Our good old friend Jim Flowers said for Omaha to even have a chance at a storm digging from the southwest it needs to come in south of the Four Corners region...

[snowstorm83]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Could someone post the 18z Euro?  Thanks. 

Only goes out to 90 hr

[clintbeed1993]

Bump.  I used to be able to pin topics but after the update that function is gone..so thanks Fred

[Hawkeye]

All models except the Euro have now lost this big storm, or at least delayed it and pushed it south.  They all have the northern stream wave outrunning the southern wave.  Plenty will change over the next week.

[Minny_Weather]

@iFredLet the man pin topics, man.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS v16. 

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Canadian. It actually develops on the 6th. 

[Minny_Weather]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z GFS v16. 

Lol.

 

GFS sucks.

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian and GFS v16 are very similar but later 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol.

 

GFS sucks.

I know, but this new version and Canadian are almost identical. Will see how it performs. I refuse to ever post the old GFS. Hot garbage. 

[snowstorm83]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z GFS v16. 

 

Well I wouldn't complain being at 67" for the season by Feb 7th 

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS Mean Ensemble SLP- (big change in 24 hours)

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is much different through HR 132 compared to HR 144-- way weaker for starters.

[Madtown]

Oh oh living on a prayer sorrybtoo many Bent Paddles 

[Tom]

Massive changes in just 12 hours per the EPS/GEFS ensembles with a dramatic shift S and splitting of the trough that plows into the west.  Looking at the tonight's 00z EPS you can clearly see what the model is trying to do and allowing for the secondary wave to dig into the 4 corners.  Instead of one main piece ejecting out into the plains, (which has been model bias this season in the LR), recent op runs are showing one piece going north with a trailing CF and a secondary SLP forming along it and riding up towards the GL's.  Interestingly, as I flipped through my notes and looked at the previous LRC cycles, wouldn't ya know it, this identical pattern happened.  

@Clinton, the LRC will be very useful tracking this one and I think your in line to be close in the action zone.  In the 1st cycle, a very strong wave targeted MT/Saskatchewan with a Blizzard on Nov 8th, while the second piece tracked into AZ/UT/CO on the 8th/9th.  This was a potent storm with severe wx and lots of wind along with a potent arctic shot post storm.  During Dec 22nd-25th, a strong wave slammed into OR/WA sending a strong wave into Upper MW where Blizzard warnings were issued for parts of the Dakotas.  Secondary Low forms along CF and rides up the Apps and phases into a monster Ontario storm.

Notice the 00z EPS trending towards splitting the trough in the west by Day 5...

 

 

 

The pressure pattern across S Canada isn't favorable for suppression and looks similar to LRC cycle 1...

 

Quite the shift S/SE with the snow shield in just a 12 hr ensemble suite run....hard to differentiate the snow mean in IA/WI/IL and nearby but the snow mean did increase by about 2-3".  

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro Control also splitting up the energy...one goes north, the other forms in the LRC's Hot Spot....aka, "The Slot" in the TX Panhandle region...I'm sure we'll see changes in the coming days.  I was once worried that a snow pack killer was on the way, but that has subsided some...not fully, just muted since overnight runs.  

[Grizzcoat]

06z GEFS MEAN SLP Ensemble

[CentralNebWeather]

Don’t remember ever seeing the Euro shift so much in 12 hours. From a wound up blizzard to nothing here. I want to see what other changes occur the next few days before moving on. We’ll see what the Canadian does later this morning. Weather can sure give you ups and downs, that’s for sure. 

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Massive changes in just 12 hours per the EPS/GEFS ensembles with a dramatic shift S and splitting of the trough that plows into the west.  Looking at the tonight's 00z EPS you can clearly see what the model is trying to do and allowing for the secondary wave to dig into the 4 corners.  Instead of one main piece ejecting out into the plains, (which has been model bias this season in the LR), recent op runs are showing one piece going north with a trailing CF and a secondary SLP forming along it and riding up towards the GL's.  Interestingly, as I flipped through my notes and looked at the previous LRC cycles, wouldn't ya know it, this identical pattern happened.  

@Clinton, the LRC will be very useful tracking this one and I think your in line to be close in the action zone.  In the 1st cycle, a very strong wave targeted MT/Saskatchewan with a Blizzard on Nov 8th, while the second piece tracked into AZ/UT/CO on the 8th/9th.  This was a potent storm with severe wx and lots of wind along with a potent arctic shot post storm.  During Dec 22nd-25th, a strong wave slammed into OR/WA sending a strong wave into Upper MW where Blizzard warnings were issued for parts of the Dakotas.  Secondary Low forms along CF and rides up the Apps and phases into a monster Ontario storm.

Notice the 00z EPS trending towards splitting the trough in the west by Day 5...

 

 

 

The pressure pattern across S Canada isn't favorable for suppression and looks similar to LRC cycle 1...

 

Quite the shift S/SE with the snow shield in just a 12 hr ensemble suite run....hard to differentiate the snow mean in IA/WI/IL and nearby but the snow mean did increase by about 2-3".  

 

 

6z GFS also moving the timing back to Saturday which also lines up with this years cycle length. Things are looking up! We may need to adjust the dates on this thread as we get closer.

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS also moving the timing back to Saturday which also lines up with this years cycle length. Things are looking up! We may need to adjust the dates on this thread as we get closer.

I agree, I was thinking the same thing earlier this morning.  Looks like the pattern is going to finally turn the corner for your area and FEEL and hopefully LOOK like Winter.

[Niko]

Massive changes in my extended outlook w this storm late next week. O boy!

[Clinton]

6z GFS putting together a few runs in a row that look similar to this.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON 

[Tom]

12z GFS coming in Hot...

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

12z GFS coming in Hot...

Liking the trends. Just started to snow here in Dupage

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Liking the trends. Just started to snow here in Dupage

Reminds me of the Super Bowl Blizzard in 2015...Redux part 2???

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Reminds me of the Super Bowl Blizzard in 2015...Redux part 2???

I like where you are going with this. Hoping snow ratios will be better than advertised. Looks like around 1.4 qpf on latest GFS run

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GFS coming in Hot...

Here Blizzard Blizzard.

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

I like where you are going with this. Hoping snow ratios will be better than advertised. Looks like around 1.4 qpf on latest GFS run

Sorry, post on qpf was meant for current storm. Did not look.at qpf for this one...my bad

[GDR]

What’s Jim flowers thoughts on this?

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Here Blizzard Blizzard.

#Buried...

[Tom]

This has the look of GHD-1 repeat...10-year anniversary???  This is accumulative but you get the idea...

 

 

 

[GDR]

So the gfs is a good model now?? 

[Clinton]

Even if I got just half of that it would write a lot of the wrongs from this winter

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS v16 to hour 162  

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian basically loses everything and there is no storm at all in any time frame for virtually everyone on here.  Almost have to think it’s a bad run of data. 

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, GDR said:

So the gfs is a good model now?? 

Trends...the key here is the splitting of the trough and the secondary piece heads into the 4 corners that the models suddenly picked up on.  I'd like to see a few more 00z/12z suite runs to get excited.

[Stacsh]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Canadian basically loses everything and there is no storm at all in any time frame for virtually everyone on here.  Almost have to think it’s a bad run of data. 

It's a week out and the GFS is trash past 3 days this year.  I don't buy any of these models yet.  The only thing they agree on is a cold front.   I swear who built and runs these models are juicing up the long range for eye candy.