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A well advertised longwave trough should amplify and swing into the southwest early next week. As this wave goes neg tilt and lifts into the midwest, it seems probable that a wound up surface low will develop somewhere in the high plains and lift northeast with it. Current forecast models generally cut this pretty hard and, if I had to guess, this is probably a NE/NW IA/MN show right now. But it currently looks as if this system is likely to bring significant winter weather to someone. System is still a good 7 days out and there are significant timing differences between the EC/GFS, but has had quite a lot of support on guidance over the past 3-4 days, enough that starting a thread for it may be justified. 

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prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

 

 

 

 

 

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Snow mounds are growing!!!

I finished with 5.8".  I really wanted to be able to mark down another 6-incher. There was a lot of drifting toward the end and all the blowing snow collected on the driveways and sidewalks.  My

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Could someone post the 18z Euro?  Thanks. 

Only goes out to 90 hr

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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All models except the Euro have now lost this big storm, or at least delayed it and pushed it south.  They all have the northern stream wave outrunning the southern wave.  Plenty will change over the next week.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@iFredLet the man pin topics, man.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z GFS v16. image.thumb.png.b3f3aaca5b3699946edb908e090d3463.png

Lol.

 

GFS sucks.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z GFS v16. image.thumb.png.b3f3aaca5b3699946edb908e090d3463.png

 

Well I wouldn't complain being at 67" for the season by Feb 7th 😆

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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  • hlcater changed the title to 2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low

Euro is much different through HR 132 compared to HR 144-- way weaker for starters.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Massive changes in just 12 hours per the EPS/GEFS ensembles with a dramatic shift S and splitting of the trough that plows into the west.  Looking at the tonight's 00z EPS you can clearly see what the model is trying to do and allowing for the secondary wave to dig into the 4 corners.  Instead of one main piece ejecting out into the plains, (which has been model bias this season in the LR), recent op runs are showing one piece going north with a trailing CF and a secondary SLP forming along it and riding up towards the GL's.  Interestingly, as I flipped through my notes and looked at the previous LRC cycles, wouldn't ya know it, this identical pattern happened.  

@Clinton, the LRC will be very useful tracking this one and I think your in line to be close in the action zone.  In the 1st cycle, a very strong wave targeted MT/Saskatchewan with a Blizzard on Nov 8th, while the second piece tracked into AZ/UT/CO on the 8th/9th.  This was a potent storm with severe wx and lots of wind along with a potent arctic shot post storm.  During Dec 22nd-25th, a strong wave slammed into OR/WA sending a strong wave into Upper MW where Blizzard warnings were issued for parts of the Dakotas.  Secondary Low forms along CF and rides up the Apps and phases into a monster Ontario storm.

Notice the 00z EPS trending towards splitting the trough in the west by Day 5...

 

1.gif

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_6.png

 

The pressure pattern across S Canada isn't favorable for suppression and looks similar to LRC cycle 1...

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_6.png

 

Quite the shift S/SE with the snow shield in just a 12 hr ensemble suite run....hard to differentiate the snow mean in IA/WI/IL and nearby but the snow mean did increase by about 2-3".  

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4.png

 

 

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00z Euro Control also splitting up the energy...one goes north, the other forms in the LRC's Hot Spot....aka, "The Slot" in the TX Panhandle region...I'm sure we'll see changes in the coming days.  I was once worried that a snow pack killer was on the way, but that has subsided some...not fully, just muted since overnight runs.  

1.png

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Don’t remember ever seeing the Euro shift so much in 12 hours. From a wound up blizzard to nothing here. I want to see what other changes occur the next few days before moving on. We’ll see what the Canadian does later this morning. Weather can sure give you ups and downs, that’s for sure. 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Massive changes in just 12 hours per the EPS/GEFS ensembles with a dramatic shift S and splitting of the trough that plows into the west.  Looking at the tonight's 00z EPS you can clearly see what the model is trying to do and allowing for the secondary wave to dig into the 4 corners.  Instead of one main piece ejecting out into the plains, (which has been model bias this season in the LR), recent op runs are showing one piece going north with a trailing CF and a secondary SLP forming along it and riding up towards the GL's.  Interestingly, as I flipped through my notes and looked at the previous LRC cycles, wouldn't ya know it, this identical pattern happened.  

@Clinton, the LRC will be very useful tracking this one and I think your in line to be close in the action zone.  In the 1st cycle, a very strong wave targeted MT/Saskatchewan with a Blizzard on Nov 8th, while the second piece tracked into AZ/UT/CO on the 8th/9th.  This was a potent storm with severe wx and lots of wind along with a potent arctic shot post storm.  During Dec 22nd-25th, a strong wave slammed into OR/WA sending a strong wave into Upper MW where Blizzard warnings were issued for parts of the Dakotas.  Secondary Low forms along CF and rides up the Apps and phases into a monster Ontario storm.

Notice the 00z EPS trending towards splitting the trough in the west by Day 5...

 

1.gif

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_6.png

 

The pressure pattern across S Canada isn't favorable for suppression and looks similar to LRC cycle 1...

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_6.png

 

Quite the shift S/SE with the snow shield in just a 12 hr ensemble suite run....hard to differentiate the snow mean in IA/WI/IL and nearby but the snow mean did increase by about 2-3".  

3.png

4.png

 

 

6z GFS also moving the timing back to Saturday which also lines up with this years cycle length. Things are looking up! We may need to adjust the dates on this thread as we get closer.

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15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS also moving the timing back to Saturday which also lines up with this years cycle length. Things are looking up! We may need to adjust the dates on this thread as we get closer.

I agree, I was thinking the same thing earlier this morning.  Looks like the pattern is going to finally turn the corner for your area and FEEL and hopefully LOOK like Winter.

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

Reminds me of the Super Bowl Blizzard in 2015...Redux part 2???

I like where you are going with this. Hoping snow ratios will be better than advertised. Looks like around 1.4 qpf on latest GFS run

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2 minutes ago, Tony said:

I like where you are going with this. Hoping snow ratios will be better than advertised. Looks like around 1.4 qpf on latest GFS run

Sorry, post on qpf was meant for current storm. Did not look.at qpf for this one...my bad

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8 minutes ago, GDR said:

So the gfs is a good model now?? 

Trends...the key here is the splitting of the trough and the secondary piece heads into the 4 corners that the models suddenly picked up on.  I'd like to see a few more 00z/12z suite runs to get excited.

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6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Canadian basically loses everything and there is no storm at all in any time frame for virtually everyone on here.  Almost have to think it’s a bad run of data. 

It's a week out and the GFS is trash past 3 days this year.  I don't buy any of these models yet.  The only thing they agree on is a cold front.   I swear who built and runs these models are juicing up the long range for eye candy.     

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1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

GHD storm 2011 was such a consensus on all the models it was known what was going to happen almost a week out.   

Yup, I remember that vividly.  The Euro jumped on it 7 days out iirc.

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yup, I remember that vividly.  The Euro jumped on it 7 days out iirc.

That was the best tracking storm ever.  We closed work 2 days in advance because it was almost a certainty of blizzard conditions.  

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8 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

That was the best tracking storm ever.  We closed work 2 days in advance because it was almost a certainty of blizzard conditions.  

I got goose bumps thinking about just now.  I remember they posted Blizzard Watch's 2 days out!  That was THE most memorable storm of my lifetime.

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The UK now has the southwestern energy getting stuck off the California coast through the entire run.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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