Stacsh Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 GHD storm 2011 was such a consensus on all the models it was known what was going to happen almost a week out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Stacsh said: GHD storm 2011 was such a consensus on all the models it was known what was going to happen almost a week out. Yup, I remember that vividly. The Euro jumped on it 7 days out iirc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Seriously..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 This is looking like a monster! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tom said: Yup, I remember that vividly. The Euro jumped on it 7 days out iirc. That was the best tracking storm ever. We closed work 2 days in advance because it was almost a certainty of blizzard conditions. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Stacsh said: That was the best tracking storm ever. We closed work 2 days in advance because it was almost a certainty of blizzard conditions. I got goose bumps thinking about just now. I remember they posted Blizzard Watch's 2 days out! That was THE most memorable storm of my lifetime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 12z GEFS...starting to trend with more members sniffing out the second wave...still a lot of spread... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Gem has no storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The UK now has the southwestern energy getting stuck off the California coast through the entire run. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The UK now has the southwestern energy getting stuck off the California coast through the entire run. What a strange morning of runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Today's Euro is doing what last night's UK did. The sw energy gets dragged and sheared by the first northern wave. It'll probably show something different tomorrow. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Hawkeye said: Today's Euro is doing what last night's UK did. The sw energy gets dragged and sheared by the first northern wave. It'll probably show something different tomorrow. Even further south. Have to hope for changes back north in the coming days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 @Clintonyou won’t like the 12z Euro. It is well south of you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Stacsh said: It's a week out and the GFS is trash past 3 days this year. I don't buy any of these models yet. The only thing they agree on is a cold front. I swear who built and runs these models are juicing up the long range for eye candy. I won’t even waste much time looking at models with so much disagreement and fluctuations this far out. The main thing is we know there probably will be a big system somewhere in the Midwest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Don’t get me wrong. I appreciate all the maps, etc you guys are posting! Keep it up . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: @Clintonyou won’t like the 12z Euro. It is well south of you. Crazy and Jim Flowers was calling for a blizzard in your area just the other day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: @Clintonyou won’t like the 12z Euro. It is well south of you. And that is a real concern, esp with the forecasted dip in the AO to -4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Dud. Jinx thread 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Cmc back to a Plains Crusher. 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Cmc back to a Plains Crusher. Wouldn’t it be something if the models came back to the original storm, though delayed a day. I don’t think we’re done with changes yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 0z Canadian for next weekend. It had nothing on the 12z run so expect more changes. Shown for entertainment purposes only. 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 The UK continues to not even move the sw energy into California. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Euro very similar to CMC through HR 168 other than intensity. Scary similar. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Regardless- the Euro is also back to a Storm for C and S PLains. A good sign. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said: 0z Canadian for next weekend. It had nothing on the 12z run so expect more changes. Shown for entertainment purposes only. Euro's Kuchera is quite similar to CMC for this range. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Euro has a highly-amplified pattern with a biggie for the central plains to the western lakes next weekend. The only negative is the initial southwestern energy just shears out along the gulf coast and sweeps the deep moisture away. The biggie then is moisture-limited, although it's still powerful. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 The thing with the euro is that system is COLD. Would be very high ratio verbatim. That would be quite something... 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gfs says what storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 This storm has everything going for it to become a monster cutter....whether its a western or lower lakes cutter is TBD. There are some significant trends in the -NAO that will impact this storms track. The NAO is forecast to tank right before the storms target period. This will allow it to slow, dig and potentially become a monster storm across the central U.S. The 1st lead wave (Thu/Fri) is showing signs of tracking farther south and trending colder with some snow into parts of the Upper MW/GL's on both the Euro/UKIE dropping several inches. This will pave the way for the secondary stronger piece to eject out into the Plains/MW and phase with the driving northern stream (PV) out of Canada and potentially become the seasons strongest storm of the year. Boy, with all the blocking in place and Arctic Air to tap, this has HUGE potential to become a major Blizzard....I usually don't say this quite often, but my gut is telling me that this one is going to have some of the same characteristics the Super Bowl Blitz in 2015 ended up having. I did a quick search and found this link from LOT...https://www.weather.gov/lot/2015_Feb01_Snow Check out the water vapory animation and you can see the Northern stream driving south out of Canada while the SW energy ejects out of the SW. Dejavu??? Could this happen again? I got this feeling something may be cooking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 00z EPS trending towards a storm forming near the LRC's hot spot across the TX Panhandle region and cutting up towards the lower lakes/OHV... 00z Euro Control... There has been a significant trend towards a cutter per the 00z EPS members. Good signs going forward. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 LOT's first thoughts for the Super Bowl weekend system... Quote If Friday-Friday night does quiet down under high pressure, there`s a signal for a possible southern stream system that could affect somewhere in the Midwest and Great Lakes later Saturday through Sunday, with a pretty good signal for day 7-8 on the 00z ECMWF ensemble. Lots of time to monitor that period. Either way, a generally colder than normal and active pattern should continue into mid February, with possibility of a sharp cold shot after whatever happens next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 We may have to split up this storm thread and create another one for the Super Bowl weekend which looks to be the primary threat. The lead wave fits the dates on this thread for Thu/Fri. Let's see what the models show today and then make a decision to create another separate thread for next weekend. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Regardless of what this system does or even if it falls totally apart - the GREAT ones almost always come out in two waves. (Dec 09 etc) and have origins in the Bering Sea. At least mid-winter. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: We may have to split up this storm thread and create another one for the Super Bowl weekend which looks to be the primary threat. The lead wave fits the dates on this thread for Thu/Fri. Let's see what the models show today and then make a decision to create another separate thread for next weekend. Please do that. Local weather offices now are saying not a lot from Thursday in this area but potential for a storm Saturday/Sunday. Thanks for your work @Tom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Jim Flowers on F-Book post says this is a totally different system and energy than the one just a few days ago , that was lost, and now found by Cmc and Euro. It's interesting that some on his feed disagree, he's doing a video shortly, I believe. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 KC office take on storm next weekend. Model discrepancies in the extended lead to a low confidence forecast at this time. Models in fairly good agreement that a fast moving shortwave trough moving through the northern and central Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing a cold front through the area. Moisture with this system will be meager however, forcing will be strong enough to produce light rain. High Thursday will be in the 40s. Beyond Thursday, model solutions diverge drastically. The GFS depict deep, broad upper level troughing across much of the central CONUS and is very cold with only a passing shot of snow on Saturday. Conversely, the EC and Canadian models depict more zonal flow on Friday behind Thursday`s system. However, it develops a trough digging through the east Rockies on Friday and developing a 700mb low over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles by Saturday morning. this low then ejects out across southern Kansas into during the day Saturday and then along the I-44 corridor Saturday night. This would be a favorable track for heavy snow across the forecast area. Consequently, this system will need to be monitored closely as we move into the work week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 22 hours ago, Stacsh said: That was the best tracking storm ever. We closed work 2 days in advance because it was almost a certainty of blizzard conditions. 99 Bliz better than 2011 for most not in Chicago to GR Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 16 hours ago, tStacsh said: Dud. Jinx thread Storm shown targeting us? 7 days out? Kiss of death this season. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Well in the purple 5-7 days out....what could go wrong 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Jim Flowers latest video and thoughts for the weekend https://fb.watch/3mCn0UuWnR/ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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