CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 12z Canadian. Only dropped potential amounts by 24” from the 0z run so there’s that. Who knows what’s going to happen? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 By the next run nothing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Models are all over the place with this one. Except for the GFS which has consistently shown nothing major. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Models are all over the place with this one. Except for the GFS which has consistently shown nothing major. Euro and Canadian crap out the week with basically nothing after showing a big storm on the 0z run. Very confusing pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 12z euro took the major storm last night and shifted it to the east coast. Has a minor snow event for some a few days prior. This is the same energy that was originally progged to be a major storm. There has been a trend over the past 2 or 3 model cycles to become slightly more defined with this energy and perhaps spin up something modest before the cold presses in. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 12z Euro. I’ll post even though there may be multiple changes in the week ahead, or I guess this could be spot on. Who knows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Jim Flowers just posted that the pattern is progressive so the trough will not set up for a storm here. Maybe on the east coast. I’ll give it a few more days before throwing in the towel. He has now missed on his prediction for this storm twice. Just saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 12z Euro for the 4th/5th system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Regarding the 7th/8th storm potential, it's still showing up on the EPS but shifted the snow mean a bit more S/SE and now appears to suggest the S MW/Lower Lakes/OHV from MO/IL/IN/OH/MI into the EC. There is a lot more spread than earlier runs now. 12z Euro Control... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 Per NOAA: Progressive Pacific energy is expected to push rapidly across the continuous U.S. late this week. Models indicate a high likelihood for northern/southern stream phasing which brings plenty of timing concerns. Current forecast calls for precipitation to begin as snow and change over to a mix Thursday night. The other item that will probably garner attention will be strong west winds that develop Friday in cold advection. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2021 Report Share Posted January 31, 2021 That looks very promising!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 hours ago, hlcater said: The 12z euro took the major storm last night and shifted it to the east coast. Has a minor snow event for some a few days prior. This is the same energy that was originally progged to be a major storm. There has been a trend over the past 2 or 3 model cycles to become slightly more defined with this energy and perhaps spin up something modest before the cold presses in. But hey, it'd be a March 1993 redux for Tennessee and points Northeastward! Harrisburg, PA has 44" at the end of the run. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Will be interesting to see how tonights 0z runs go. The ICON has a biggy on Sunday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 hours ago, Tom said: 12z Euro for the 4th/5th system... Come on....throw this dog a bone! In purple 4 days out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Madtown said: Come on....throw this dog a bone! In purple 4 days out All the models seem to be trending that way for you up north...good luck! 00z Canadian... 00z UKIE... 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 00z EPS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 I'm seeing more ensemble members blowing up this storm as it tracks up towards the GL's. Are the models digesting the stout -NAO allowing for the SLP to dig and Go Big??? The pattern is ripe for this to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 For the first time, I'm getting excited for West Michigan. If the cold pans out, and we have a strong system in the area, the WSW or even WNW winds arctic air intrusion should provide plenty of snow to blanket our area. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 The GFS has come south a bit more. I'd be happy with a couple-inch refresher. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 GFS from Saturday at noon until Sunday at noon has max temps below zero for a large area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Wind Chills Sun AM--- OUCH!!! 2 1 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Score! GFSv16 with the exact bullseye directly over my county. No way that this doesn't pan out... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z GEFS are showing some interesting members that have a tightly wound up SLP rolling through the GL's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 ^^^ (to bud's posts) the GFS elect had 10" for Ames about 36 hours out with previous storm. I think they got 1.5". Personally- I think it's worse so far than the reg olde GFS. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z GGEM... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 This storm is trending to be quite the strong storm...there are a number of 12z GEFS members showing 980's and even a couple 970's... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 I agree with Tom. I'll go a notch a further in that areas that don't get rain or long lasting temps above 0C - expect Blizzard conditions behind this. Ditches are full and it does not take much..... 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: I agree with Tom. I'll go a notch a further in that areas that don't get rain or long lasting temps above 0C - expect Blizzard conditions behind this. Ditches are full and it does not take much..... This pattern is reminding me of a flavor of '13-'14 when we had many cold systems/arctic fronts with strong winds and ground blizzards. Loving the looks for this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z UK 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 The South trends in the snow are legit so far...very curious to see what the Euro shows later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z Euro 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Well love the Euro...not liking the south trend on the some others but I think the GFS has been out to lunch for a few months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Your golden Mainiwaters / Rhinelander area... biggest snows this year for sure.. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 From GRR: getting excited 2-5 with surface low and then BOOM LES city. Let's hope this trend continues! Strong warm advection pattern ahead of approaching sfc low/cold front leads to precipitation breaking out quickly Thursday afternoon, and sfc temps rising into the mid to upper 30s raises p-type questions. While those temps do support a rain/snow mix, especially near and south of I-96, evaporative cooling/wet bulbing may lead to that mix changing back over to all snow pretty quickly or even staying all snow for the whole event. This would be most possible across the higher terrain/typically colder area north of GRR. Model QPFs have been trending up with this event, especially over wrn and nrn sections of the area, with QPF now around a half inch. Early indications are that we could see a 2-5" snowfall out of the warm advection component of this system leading to travel impacts for the Thursday evening commute. The other aspect of this system will be the winds on Friday behind the cold front which could gust over 40 mph at the lakeshore and 30-35 inland. Much colder air will be rushing in as well with temperatures dropping into the lower 20s and additional lake effect snow. The strength of the winds should send the snow showers well inland with some blowing and drifting also possible. --Arctic blast arrives over the weekend-- The daily specifics for next weekend are a bit unclear but most guidance converges on the coldest air of the season arriving over the weekend into early next week. What`s not clear is whether or not we`ll have another synoptic system preceding the cold blast and what the prevailing wind direction will be in the cold air. With H8 air of around -25C arriving, potential exists for some significant lake effect snow Sunday-Monday as well as sub zero wind chills for an extended period of time. Highs only in the teens will make road treatments less effective so icy roads may be a big travel impact concern early next week. Winter has been pretty tranquil up to now so this will be quite a shocker for many. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 NOAA: Quote: A deepening northern stream trough is forecast to advance into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Thursday. Decent mid level moist isentropic ascent within the warm air advection regime is forecast to overspread Se Mi Thurs afternoon/evening. A southern stream upper jet max within the base of the trough is likely to provide decent upper level divergent/difluent flow. The result will be widespread precipitation. Model soundings suggest wet bulb cooling will lead to an all snow. Mixing follows Thursday night. Stay Tuned for the latest. Hope it stays all snow. Have to wait and see on that. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Should we do separate threads? One for the surface low and one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it? I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 18z NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 DMX nws wrote a novel about this event for their afternoon discussion. Thursday and Friday: CVA begins to increase late Wednesday into Thursday morning and marks the start to H5 height falls across the upper Midwest. There are still two distinct jet streaks and vorticity maxes with one to the north and one to the south. Both kick off surface cyclogenesis and phase well with the upper-level wave to allow deepening of both surface cyclones. With today`s 12z model cycles, a northward trend of the southern cyclone continues, with its center tracking through Missouri. This will place more favorable forcing across the forecast area on Thursday. Yesterday, it appeared that the northern and southern features were a tad out of sync with each other. Over the past 24 hours though, both the H5 vort maxes and surface cyclones are now aligned in a way where there does not appear to be competing periods of WAA vs. CAA. Throughout the day Thursday, convergence will begin to increase as the trough axis propagates eastward across the central Plains. WAA will be quite strong Thursday morning and into the afternoon ahead of the trough axis. Expect rain showers to become widespread during Thursday morning into afternoon ahead of enhanced isentropic ascent. Later into the afternoon on Thursday as the trough axis moves through, the centers of both cyclones pass to the east, rapid CAA will begin with gusty winds. The deformation zone associated with the southern cyclone will ramp up forcing, with a strong ribbon of frontogenesis across the bulk of the forecast area. Ice introduction arrives quickly with the onset of the cold air, and model soundings are favoring strong lift within the DGZ during this time. Thus, expecting a sudden transition to all snow. During this time, with strong lift in the DGZ and overall strong forcing moving through, snowfall rates could become intense. As the cold air continues to push through, the DGZ will eventually be at the surface up through about 1.5 km. Shortly after, decent lapse rates develop within the boundary layer while there is still saturation through the DGZ. Although omega values do not indicate the most favorable lift, the strong winds will enhance turbulence and with lower static stability, could certainly see more convective snow showers with burst-like potential. At this time, cannot definitively call for a snow-squall forecast, but the environment certainly could be there. With respect to snowfall amounts, this is difficult to pinpoint. The challenge with snowfall amounts right now is how much of the QPF gets used up as rain during the earlier WAA regime, and exactly when the transition to all snow occurs. Accumulating snow is very likely though on Thursday. However, snowfall accumulations are not going to be greatest concern associated with this winter weather event. Wet surfaces from the preceding rain in the morning followed by a rapid drop off in temperatures as strong CAA sets in, may make for a messy situation. There is good potential for the strong push of CAA to generate a Flash Freeze event. Over the span of a couple hours, temperatures could drop as much as 15 to 20 degrees. In this scenario, having wet roads, with some snow then accumulated on top of it, would freeze rapidly, making for very hazardous driving conditions. All-wheel drive, four-wheel drive, and anti-lock breaks do not mean much if this happens. There is still some uncertainty with the timing of when this rapid drop off in temperatures will occur. A few ensembles members favor this happening in the late morning to early afternoon, while others would favor it closer to sunset during the evening rush hour. Either way, paying attention to road conditions Thursday will be necessary. Wind gusts of 25-30 MPH in a environment with a healthy DGZ and low static stability will make for low visibilities with blowing snow, especially if they are more convective in nature. Couple that with rapidly freezing surfaces with strong CAA, makes for a hazardous situation even if the snowfall totals are not overly high. Again, snowfall totals will not be the main impact with this event, the rapid drop off in temperatures and burst-like nature of snow showers will be the issue to monitor. The one scenario where all this could be mitigated is if the strong CAA happens early in morning on Thursday, and thus not much rain happens before the transition to snow. But, given the strength of the WAA ahead of this trough and associated surface cyclones, this mitigating scenario is not the most probable at this time. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Wow. That is a novel. Good stuff tho. Wish offices did that more often. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 The GFS continues to improve. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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