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2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low


hlcater

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The 12z euro took the major storm last night and shifted it to the east coast. Has a minor snow event for some a few days prior. This is the same energy that was originally progged to be a major storm. There has been a trend over the past 2 or 3 model cycles to become slightly more defined with this energy and perhaps spin up something modest before the cold presses in.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Regarding the 7th/8th storm potential, it's still showing up on the EPS but shifted the snow mean a bit more S/SE and now appears to suggest the S MW/Lower Lakes/OHV from MO/IL/IN/OH/MI into the EC.  There is a lot more spread than earlier runs now.

 

12z Euro Control...

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Per NOAA:

Progressive Pacific energy is expected to push rapidly across the
continuous U.S. late this week. Models indicate a high likelihood
for northern/southern stream phasing which brings plenty of timing
concerns. Current forecast calls for precipitation to begin as snow
and change over to a mix Thursday night. The other item that will
probably garner attention will be strong west winds that develop
Friday in cold advection.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 hours ago, hlcater said:

The 12z euro took the major storm last night and shifted it to the east coast. Has a minor snow event for some a few days prior. This is the same energy that was originally progged to be a major storm. There has been a trend over the past 2 or 3 model cycles to become slightly more defined with this energy and perhaps spin up something modest before the cold presses in.

But hey, it'd be a March 1993 redux for Tennessee and points Northeastward!

Harrisburg, PA has 44" at the end of the run.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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^^^  (to bud's posts) the GFS elect had 10" for Ames about 36 hours out with previous storm. I think they got 1.5". Personally- I think it's worse so far than the reg olde GFS.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I agree with Tom. I'll go a notch a further in that areas that don't get rain or long lasting temps above 0C - expect Blizzard conditions behind this. Ditches are full and it does not take much.....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I agree with Tom. I'll go a notch a further in that areas that don't get rain or long lasting temps above 0C - expect Blizzard conditions behind this. Ditches are full and it does not take much.....

This pattern is reminding me of a flavor of '13-'14 when we had many cold systems/arctic fronts with strong winds and ground blizzards.  Loving the looks for this one.

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From GRR:  getting excited  2-5 with surface low and then BOOM LES city.  Let's hope this trend continues!

Strong warm advection pattern ahead of approaching sfc low/cold
front leads to precipitation breaking out quickly Thursday
afternoon, and sfc temps rising into the mid to upper 30s raises
p-type questions. While those temps do support a rain/snow mix,
especially near and south of I-96, evaporative cooling/wet
bulbing may lead to that mix changing back over to all snow pretty
quickly or even staying all snow for the whole event. This would
be most possible across the higher terrain/typically colder area
north of GRR.

Model QPFs have been trending up with this event, especially over
wrn and nrn sections of the area, with QPF now around a half
inch. Early indications are that we could see a 2-5" snowfall out
of the warm advection component of this system leading to travel
impacts for the Thursday evening commute.

The other aspect of this system will be the winds on Friday
behind the cold front which could gust over 40 mph at the
lakeshore and 30-35 inland. Much colder air will be rushing in as
well with temperatures dropping into the lower 20s and additional
lake effect snow. The strength of the winds should send the snow
showers well inland with some blowing and drifting also possible.

--Arctic blast arrives over the weekend--

The daily specifics for next weekend are a bit unclear but most
guidance converges on the coldest air of the season arriving over
the weekend into early next week. What`s not clear is whether or
not we`ll have another synoptic system preceding the cold blast
and what the prevailing wind direction will be in the cold air.

With H8 air of around -25C arriving, potential exists for some
significant lake effect snow Sunday-Monday as well as sub zero
wind chills for an extended period of time. Highs only in the
teens will make road treatments less effective so icy roads may be
a big travel impact concern early next week. Winter has been
pretty tranquil up to now so this will be quite a shocker for
many.
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 NOAA:

Quote: A deepening northern stream trough is forecast to advance into the
Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Thursday. Decent mid level
moist isentropic ascent within the warm air advection regime is
forecast to overspread Se Mi Thurs afternoon/evening. A southern
stream upper jet max within the base of the trough is likely to
provide decent upper level divergent/difluent flow. The result will
be widespread precipitation. Model soundings suggest wet bulb
cooling will lead to an all snow. Mixing follows Thursday night. 
Stay Tuned for the latest.

Hope it stays all snow. Have to wait and see on that.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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DMX nws wrote a novel about this event for their afternoon discussion.

Thursday and Friday:

CVA begins to increase late Wednesday into Thursday morning and
marks the start to H5 height falls across the upper Midwest. There
are still two distinct jet streaks and vorticity maxes with one to
the north and one to the south. Both kick off surface cyclogenesis
and phase well with the upper-level wave to allow deepening of both
surface cyclones. With today`s 12z model cycles, a northward trend
of the southern cyclone continues, with its center tracking through
Missouri. This will place more favorable forcing across the forecast
area on Thursday. Yesterday, it appeared that the northern and
southern features were a tad out of sync with each other. Over the
past 24 hours though, both the H5 vort maxes and surface cyclones
are now aligned in a way where there does not appear to be competing
periods of WAA vs. CAA. Throughout the day Thursday, convergence
will begin to increase as the trough axis propagates eastward across
the central Plains. WAA will be quite strong Thursday morning and
into the afternoon ahead of the trough axis. Expect rain showers to
become widespread during Thursday morning into afternoon ahead of
enhanced isentropic ascent. Later into the afternoon on Thursday as
the trough axis moves through, the centers of both cyclones pass to
the east, rapid CAA will begin with gusty winds. The deformation
zone associated with the southern cyclone will ramp up forcing, with
a strong ribbon of frontogenesis across the bulk of the forecast
area. Ice introduction arrives quickly with the onset of the cold
air, and model soundings are favoring strong lift within the DGZ
during this time. Thus, expecting a sudden transition to all snow.
During this time, with strong lift in the DGZ and overall strong
forcing moving through, snowfall rates could become intense. As the
cold air continues to push through, the DGZ will eventually be at
the surface up through about 1.5 km. Shortly after, decent lapse
rates develop within the boundary layer while there is still
saturation through the DGZ. Although omega values do not indicate
the most favorable lift, the strong winds will enhance turbulence
and with lower static stability, could certainly see more convective
snow showers with burst-like potential. At this time, cannot
definitively call for a snow-squall forecast, but the environment
certainly could be there. With respect to snowfall amounts, this is
difficult to pinpoint. The challenge with snowfall amounts right now
is how much of the QPF gets used up as rain during the earlier WAA
regime, and exactly when the transition to all snow occurs.
Accumulating snow is very likely though on Thursday. However,
snowfall accumulations are not going to be greatest concern
associated with this winter weather event. Wet surfaces from the
preceding rain in the morning followed by a rapid drop off in
temperatures as strong CAA sets in, may make for a messy situation.
There is good potential for the strong push of CAA to generate a
Flash Freeze event. Over the span of a couple hours, temperatures
could drop as much as 15 to 20 degrees. In this scenario, having wet
roads, with some snow then accumulated on top of it, would freeze
rapidly, making for very hazardous driving conditions. All-wheel
drive, four-wheel drive, and anti-lock breaks do not mean much if
this happens. There is still some uncertainty with the timing of
when this rapid drop off in temperatures will occur. A few ensembles
members favor this happening in the late morning to early afternoon,
while others would favor it closer to sunset during the evening rush
hour. Either way, paying attention to road conditions Thursday will
be necessary. Wind gusts of 25-30 MPH in a environment with a
healthy DGZ and low static stability will make for low visibilities
with blowing snow, especially if they are more convective in nature.
Couple that with rapidly freezing surfaces with strong CAA, makes
for a hazardous situation even if the snowfall totals are not overly
high. Again, snowfall totals will not be the main impact with this
event, the rapid drop off in temperatures and burst-like nature of
snow showers will be the issue to monitor. The one scenario where
all this could be mitigated is if the strong CAA happens early in
morning on Thursday, and thus not much rain happens before the
transition to snow. But, given the strength of the WAA ahead of this
trough and associated surface cyclones, this mitigating scenario is
not the most probable at this time.
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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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