Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 35 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Should we do separate threads? One for the surface low and one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it? I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here. No need, we can use this thread since it’ll be caused from the same storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 I find DMX often either writes a version of the Iliad and the Odyssey, or three words. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 36 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Should we do separate threads? One for the surface low and one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it? I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here. Yes please fire up a LES thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, whatitdo said: Yes please fire up a LES thread If you wish... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 GFSv16 has become much snowier. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 GFS is the closest thing to a decent snowfall here...probably not a good sign lol 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 The DMX PM AFD is sick with potential for snow squalls. Up to you to read it, but it's solid winter. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 18z GEFS...keep trending snowier for WI/IA/N IL... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 34 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: The DMX PM AFD is sick with potential for snow squalls. Up to you to read it, but it's solid winter. Yea, there's a plume of steep mid level lapse rates and some conditional instability with this upcoming system/arctic front that would lead to convective snow potential, especially if the system trends colder. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z NAM Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z RDPS 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Does this storm match up with the Dec 23rd storm? Reading DMX disco reminded of Green Bays disco before Christmas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS going big? 979 in Mi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z GFS 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Wow. GFS seems to be getting stronger each run. Definitely keeps extending snow further south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 I'd LOVE a good 4-5" snow before an episode of arctic cold. One thing to really keep in mind here is the possibility for ground blizzard conditions behind the arctic front as the GFSs are projecting 45-50mph wind gusts with and behind the passage. Combine that with freshly fallen snow and there could be issues. Not only that, freshly fallen snow on top of existing snow that will have a glaze of ice on it. Excellent blowing conditions. 1 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFSv16 is just as south as the op GFS. Keep in mind this model had no real snow anywhere in the region last evening. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The move southeast is real, hope its stops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z GDPS 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GEFS much better for Nebraska. Not believing it unless Euro caves as well. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z UK actually pulled back the southern edge of the snow. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Kind of funny that this looked like a massive cutter a couple days ago. NW trend has always been the gospel but south trend has been happening a lot lately. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Bodes well that these maps are <100 hrs out. Classic WMI 1-2 punch knockout gaining momentum.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 The Euro is south, but it's also a bit late getting the southern energy revved up. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 hours ago, Madtown said: Does this storm match up with the Dec 23rd storm? Reading DMX disco reminded of Green Bays disco before Christmas. @Madtown, it's interesting that you say this bc it lines up to a "T" with the LRC's cycle length which is +/- 1 or days centered on 44 days. Just another example of how the LRC manifests itself in the AFD...I'm curious to know how your seeing this as an example of how that storm system was written in the AFD back in late Dec. What similarities? 3 hours ago, hlcater said: I'd LOVE a good 4-5" snow before an episode of arctic cold. One thing to really keep in mind here is the possibility for ground blizzard conditions behind the arctic front as the GFSs are projecting 45-50mph wind gusts with and behind the passage. Combine that with freshly fallen snow and there could be issues. Not only that, freshly fallen snow on top of existing snow that will have a glaze of ice on it. Excellent blowing conditions. This storm has been trending towards a storm I remember vividly back in the epic '13-'14 season that produced a similar outcome. Whoever is lucky to get underneath that backside defo band is in for a treat. 3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: Kind of funny that this looked like a massive cutter a couple days ago. NW trend has always been the gospel but south trend has been happening a lot lately. IMHO, it is the result of the west-based -NAO that is tanking during this period. Isn't it amazing how much influence the -NAO block has for our Sub??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 While N IL is riding the southern edge, I like our chances down here...as well as those in S MI/N IN...the snow shield is actually filling out farther W across E NE and into IA. 00z Euro Control...that snow in MO is part of the weekend system but the ribbon of 6" in N IL/S WI covers this systems snow and the overall them here is the S/SE trend. The models are converging on the S wave tracking farther S/SE and blowing up as it tracks into the GL's. This storm will be compact and have a fierce CF/Flash Freeze scenario for those who encounter any mix/RN on the front end. The winds are going to be wicked! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Valentine in NWS point and click is 61F for tomorrow-- so this may not be off by much. In case your wondering the record for Feb 3rd at VNT is 73F in 1962-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 06Z GFS way amped in IA compared to previous runs. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 06z GFS...S trend in snow shield looking better and quite the anafront set up...the model gets the SLP down into the mid 970's in W MI! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 DMX talking 1"+ hourly rates and blizzard to near blizzard conditions. Attention overall is on later this week into this weekend as a period of high impact and weather headline worthy events unfold. On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and quickly make its way into the Rockies by Thursday morning and to Iowa by Thursday night. Surface low pressure will develop over the central Plains on Thursday and pass near or over southeast Iowa late in the day with an attendant strong cold front passing through the state on Thursday as well. Ahead of this front, there will be a surge of low level thermal lift from Missouri into Illinois clipping eastern Iowa with QG convergence along this front. Temperatures will be warm enough ahead of the front for much of the precipitation to initially be rain. However, as the cold front plows through the state, the temperature profile will turn colder in the low levels with rain changing to snow. Regarding the flash freeze potential, it will come down to when does the drop occur and how much of a drop. During the heart of the day with a slower drop will be less of a concern than a quick and sharp drop around sunrise and rush hour. As the rain turns to snow, the ice introduction layer and dendritic growth zone with be saturated and there will be moderate lift in this zone to promote a short period of high snow rates. This evening`s 3z SREF run is already showing some low probabilities of 1"/hr rates. The lift wanes through the afternoon as strong subsidence moves across the state. However, forecast soundings show low level instability, which could promote snow showery bursts into the early evening hours. While snow amounts will not be profound given recent winter storms, the impacts will be greatly enhanced by the developing strong winds gusting over 40 mph with the potential for near blizzard conditions. The winds would also seemingly tap into the existent snow on the ground with Iowa cooperative observers reporting snow depths of at least 3 inches as of 12z Monday morning. While much of this has a crust from the recent freezing drizzle and rain, winds of this magnitude would be able to erode the crust layer and get down to the powdery, blowable snow further aiding in very poor visibility and travel conditions. The winds will remain blustery overnight into Friday morning with both NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show the boundary layer remaining mixed. This would keep at a minimum blowing snow going over northern Iowa. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 06Z GDPS is S and juiced (at least for this system)... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Jim Flowers. Eat your heart out. 3 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 06Z Euro (NW from 00Z) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Here you go Madtown-- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Happy Groundhog Day everyone. Well... I hate to burst this Winters bubble but I heard a Robin chirping away at 7:15am this morning whilst walking the dogster !!! What do they know about the upcoming weather patterns ? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks pretty good, trying not.to get my hopes up till tomorrow afternoon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 NWS GRR: Both the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles agree that 3 to 6 inches of snow over most of our CWA. This also agrees with WPC and their snowfall forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean snowfall in MKG is 5 inches by noon on Friday. Curiously the GFS ensemble mean is nearly identical with the snowfall. None of the 50 members of the ECMWF 00z ensemble have less than 2 inches at MKG, the mean is around 5 inches. If I had a choice would chose not to travel in Southwest Michigan during the daytime on Friday. I'm glad i'll have the day off on Friday for my twins 2nd birthday! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 As Stacsn stated GRR seems to think that Friday might be a kind of wild day here in west Michigan. We shall see. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.