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2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low


hlcater

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35 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Should we do separate threads?  One for the surface low and  one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it?  I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here.  

No need, we can use this thread since it’ll be caused from the same storm

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36 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Should we do separate threads?  One for the surface low and  one for the Arctic cold/LES behind it?  I'm all for the WAA part of the event, but I'm more excited for the LES potential and don't want to talk about that only on here.  

Yes please fire up a LES thread

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34 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

The DMX PM AFD is sick with potential for snow squalls. Up to you to read it, but it's solid winter.

Yea, there's a plume of steep mid level lapse rates and some conditional instability with this upcoming system/arctic front that would lead to convective snow potential, especially if the system trends colder. 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I'd LOVE a good 4-5" snow before an episode of arctic cold. One thing to really keep in mind here is the possibility for ground blizzard conditions behind the arctic front as the GFSs are projecting 45-50mph wind gusts with and behind the passage. Combine that with freshly fallen snow and there could be issues.

Not only that, freshly fallen snow on top of existing snow that will have a glaze of ice on it. Excellent blowing conditions.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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GFSv16 is just as south as the op GFS.  Keep in mind this model had no real snow anywhere in the region last evening.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Bodes well that these maps are <100 hrs out. Classic WMI 1-2 punch knockout gaining momentum..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, Madtown said:

Does this storm match up with the Dec 23rd storm? Reading DMX disco reminded of Green Bays disco before Christmas.

@Madtown, it's interesting that you say this bc it lines up to a "T" with the LRC's cycle length which is +/- 1 or days centered on 44 days.  Just another example of how the LRC manifests itself in the AFD...I'm curious to know how your seeing this as an example of how that storm system was written in the AFD back in late Dec.  What similarities?

3 hours ago, hlcater said:

I'd LOVE a good 4-5" snow before an episode of arctic cold. One thing to really keep in mind here is the possibility for ground blizzard conditions behind the arctic front as the GFSs are projecting 45-50mph wind gusts with and behind the passage. Combine that with freshly fallen snow and there could be issues.

Not only that, freshly fallen snow on top of existing snow that will have a glaze of ice on it. Excellent blowing conditions.

This storm has been trending towards a storm I remember vividly back in the epic '13-'14 season that produced a similar outcome.  Whoever is lucky to get underneath that backside defo band is in for a treat.

 

3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Kind of funny that this looked like a massive cutter a couple days ago. NW trend has always been the gospel but south trend has been happening a lot lately.  

IMHO, it is the result of the west-based -NAO that is tanking during this period.  Isn't it amazing how much influence the -NAO block has for our Sub???

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While N IL is riding the southern edge, I like our chances down here...as well as those in S MI/N IN...the snow shield is actually filling out farther W across E NE and into IA.

1.png

2.png

 

 

00z Euro Control...that snow in MO is part of the weekend system but the ribbon of 6" in N IL/S WI covers this systems snow and the overall them here is the S/SE trend.  The models are converging on the S wave tracking farther S/SE and blowing up as it tracks into the GL's.  This storm will be compact and have a fierce CF/Flash Freeze scenario for those who encounter any mix/RN on the front end.  The winds are going to be wicked!

3.png

 

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Valentine in NWS point and click is 61F for tomorrow-- so this may not be off by much. In case your wondering the record for Feb 3rd at VNT is 73F in 1962-- sfct.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX talking 1"+ hourly rates and blizzard to near blizzard conditions.

Attention overall is on later this week into this weekend as a
period of high impact and weather headline worthy events unfold.
On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will be moving into the
Pacific Northwest and quickly make its way into the Rockies by
Thursday morning and to Iowa by Thursday night. Surface low
pressure will develop over the central Plains on Thursday and pass
near or over southeast Iowa late in the day with an attendant
strong cold front passing through the state on Thursday as well.
Ahead of this front, there will be a surge of low level thermal
lift from Missouri into Illinois clipping eastern Iowa with QG
convergence along this front. Temperatures will be warm enough
ahead of the front for much of the precipitation to initially be
rain. However, as the cold front plows through the state, the
temperature profile will turn colder in the low levels with rain
changing to snow. Regarding the flash freeze potential, it will
come down to when does the drop occur and how much of a drop.
During the heart of the day with a slower drop will be less of a
concern than a quick and sharp drop around sunrise and rush hour.

As the rain turns to snow, the ice introduction layer and dendritic
growth zone with be saturated and there will be moderate lift in
this zone to promote a short period of high snow rates. This
evening`s 3z SREF run is already showing some low probabilities of
1"/hr rates. The lift wanes through the afternoon as strong
subsidence moves across the state. However, forecast soundings show
low level instability, which could promote snow showery bursts into
the early evening hours. While snow amounts will not be profound
given recent winter storms, the impacts will be greatly enhanced by
the developing strong winds gusting over 40 mph with the potential
for near blizzard conditions. The winds would also seemingly tap
into the existent snow on the ground with Iowa cooperative
observers reporting snow depths of at least 3 inches as of 12z
Monday morning. While much of this has a crust from the recent
freezing drizzle and rain, winds of this magnitude would be able
to erode the crust layer and get down to the powdery, blowable
snow further aiding in very poor visibility and travel conditions.
The winds will remain blustery overnight into Friday morning with
both NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings show the boundary layer
remaining mixed. This would keep at a minimum blowing snow going
over northern Iowa.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NWS GRR:  

Both the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles agree that 3 to 6
inches of snow over most of our CWA. This also agrees with WPC and
their snowfall forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean snowfall in MKG
is 5 inches by noon on Friday. Curiously the GFS ensemble mean is
nearly identical with the snowfall. None of the 50 members of the
ECMWF 00z ensemble have less than 2 inches at MKG, the mean is
around 5 inches. If I had a choice would chose not to travel in
Southwest Michigan during the daytime on Friday.

 

I'm glad i'll have the day off on Friday for my twins 2nd birthday!

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