Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Pushing 80F in SW KS-- wow! 3 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 54 minutes ago, kush61 said: Happy Groundhog Day everyone. Well... I hate to burst this Winters bubble but I heard a Robin chirping away at 7:15am this morning whilst walking the dogster !!! What do they know about the upcoming weather patterns ? He's going to be freezing his little pecker off this weekend.... 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Its been an amazing 35 days here. Seems no matter where the low goes I catch some snow off of them all! By far our best month ever with business! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 06z GEFS keep trending better... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Meanwhile, the NAM is going back the other way. The 12z is stronger, but way nw. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Not sure what the local is thinking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Quite the wound up low. It could be low 30's in NMI while near 10 degrees in Chicago Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 hours ago, Tom said: @Madtown, it's interesting that you say this bc it lines up to a "T" with the LRC's cycle length which is +/- 1 or days centered on 44 days. Just another example of how the LRC manifests itself in the AFD...I'm curious to know how your seeing this as an example of how that storm system was written in the AFD back in late Dec. What similarities? Started out rain to a mixed bag and then 3" of snow. The artic front that came through was crazy the water from the rain froze with ripples from the wind. Froze garage doors shut and car doors. The ice from that is what the snowmobile trail base is still made up of . The temp was around 10 on Christmas eve morning and just dropped through the day. Windy as all get out with a few snow showers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z 3k NAM is quite different than the 12k. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Liking the trends of wetter and south with the 0z runs. 12z runs should be interesting and keeping our hopes alive for several inches of refresher snow. Maybe some sampling will be ingested into the 12z runs but that's only a guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 RDPS- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 My best guess for here is 2-4” right now, which I would gladly take. Didn’t even realize until yesterday that there was a chance of snow in the first place! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12Z GFS through 69-- 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Another very solid run there. This storm could end up being a lot of fun with that wind behind it! Probably won’t even be able to tell the difference between 3 or 5” with that wind, so I suppose I shouldn’t get too caught up in it lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS and NAM 3KM trying to give KC some love on Thursday. Temps crashing into the upper 20's and 3 hours of snowfall.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS up to 6" IMBY. I had this pegged as an inch or less event here, starting to look more possible that we actually get a solid storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: GFS up to 6" IMBY. I had this pegged as an inch or less event here, starting to look more possible that we actually get a solid storm. And it won’t take much snow for this system to be pretty entertaining given the winds with it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Close up in Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Wow, the literal calm before the storm in Eastern Iowa Thursday. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z GDPS is pretty bullish from Iowa to Lake Michigan. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 That Gdps looks a little silly with the snow layout just along the lake, but who knows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z UK is a bit closer to the GFS/GDPS. The 12k NAM appears to be on its own with the nw snow band. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, Madtown said: That Gdps looks a little silly with the snow layout just along the lake, but who knows With the low wrapping up around Lake Michigan and deepening cold, it seems reasonable it will have an effect on accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Meanwhile, the NAM is going back the other way. The 12z is stronger, but way nw. Throw it out. Doesn’t even agree with the 12z 3km. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stacsh said: With the low wrapping up around Lake Michigan and deepening cold, it seems reasonable it will have an effect on accumulations. I'd be shocked if all the lake counties in WI walked away with 7-8"+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 I expect Blizzard Warnings for some areas of IA at sometime -- minimal I know is 3 hrs-- but with ditches full , this baby in rural IA is going to rock n roll. Throw in 2-4" of powder and its going to be a snow globe with 40+ mph winds in the country. 4 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 20 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: I expect Blizzard Warnings for some areas of IA at sometime -- minimal I know is 3 hrs-- but with ditches full , this baby in rural IA is going to rock n roll. Throw in 2-4" of powder and its going to be a snow globe with 40+ mph winds in the country. Especially on top of an ice sheet. This is going to really maximize the blowing we get from ~40mph wind gusts 2 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 CMC -- 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Oops just realized I missed that hawkeye already posted ukie Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Even though my snow amount is only 0.5” on that run of the Ukie, the southern cut off isn’t nearly as sharp or close to me this time, so I like it much better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12Z Euro through 66 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro much better for IA that run. This thing is gonna be fun to watch with it being a daytime event in IA. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Riding a razor edge here. Nasty cutoff on the NW side. When in doubt, cold dry air will win out. I’m going with 1” here. When the NAM is your only real friend, that’s bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 I'm curious what the NWS will do with these. Certainly headlines will be in order for portions of the area. As Grizz mentioned, blizzard conditions are looking quite possible. I can't remember the last time my county was under a blizzard warning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Euro shows a couple high ratio snow events across many locations this weekend, the 2 events total about 5" in Iowa City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: I'm curious what the NWS will do with these. Certainly headlines will be in order for portions of the area. As Grizz mentioned, blizzard conditions are looking quite possible. I can't remember the last time my county was under a blizzard warning. Yeah tough call for them on snow right now, but definitely helps the office’s messaging that conditions are going to be pretty bad whether it’s 2 or 6”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 Travel will be difficult Friday morning per my office. Noice!! -- Significant impacts with wind and snow Friday -- The system on Thursday may will require headlines. This will be a mixed precipitation event at the start on Thursday. Once the cold air wraps in behind the departing storm we will have about 12 hours of snow with west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to near 50 mph by the lake shore (ECMWF ensemble mean wind gust at MKG is 50 mph around noon on Friday). Inland winds will gust to near 40 mph into the late afternoon on Friday. This is one of those negative tilt troughs that causes a surface to track near GRR around sunrise Friday and deepen rapidly. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles all agree on the deepening and the track of the low being near GRR Friday morning. The NAM is to far north with the surface low, so it does not show the intensity that the other two models do. Since the NAM is an outlier, I am thinking that is not the models of choice for this system. As the system wraps up, Thursday night into Friday, the 850 temperature falls from around 1c at midnight to -12c by sunrise! That is a rather impressive temperature change in such a short time, which is why the winds will be so strong. This track keeps the deep moisture over Southwest Michigan into midday Friday on both their ECMWF and GFS. The NAM has the deep moisture gone by sunrise. The result of that will be significantly more snow if the GFS and ECMWF turn out to be correct, which I think they will. As temperatures fall from the mid 30s around midnight into the teens during the day on Friday. Friday mid morning into early afternoon this would mean snow, blowing and drifting snow with wind chills falling to near zero. This would not be a good day to be outside. We expect to get around a half inch of precipitation as rain or mixed rain and snow before the cold air gets here so some accumulations are possible over our northern CWA Thursday afternoon into the evening before the air gets to warm for snow for about 6 hours. Both the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles agree that 3 to 6 inches of snow over most of our CWA. This also agrees with WPC and their snowfall forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean snowfall in MKG is 5 inches by noon on Friday. Curiously the GFS ensemble mean is nearly identical with the snowfall. None of the 50 members of the ECMWF 00z ensemble have less than 2 inches at MKG, the mean is around 5 inches. If I had a choice would chose not to travel in Southwest Michigan during the daytime on Friday. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2021 Report Share Posted February 2, 2021 12Z Euro -- 43 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 37 minutes ago, East Dubzz said: 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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