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2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low


hlcater

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54 minutes ago, kush61 said:

Happy Groundhog Day everyone.

Well... I hate to burst this Winters bubble but I heard a Robin chirping away at 7:15am this morning whilst walking the dogster !!!

What do they know about the upcoming weather patterns ?

 

He's going to be freezing his little pecker off this weekend....

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

 

@Madtown, it's interesting that you say this bc it lines up to a "T" with the LRC's cycle length which is +/- 1 or days centered on 44 days.  Just another example of how the LRC manifests itself in the AFD...I'm curious to know how your seeing this as an example of how that storm system was written in the AFD back in late Dec.  What similarities?

Started out rain to a mixed bag and then 3" of snow. The artic front that came through was crazy the water from the rain froze with ripples from the wind.  Froze garage doors shut and car doors. The ice from that is what the snowmobile trail base is still made up of . The temp  was around 10 on Christmas eve morning and just dropped through the day. Windy as all get out with a few snow showers.

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12z UK is a bit closer to the GFS/GDPS.  The 12k NAM appears to be on its own with the nw snow band.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Meanwhile, the NAM is going back the other way.  The 12z is stronger, but way nw.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Throw it out. Doesn’t even agree with the 12z 3km. 

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I expect Blizzard Warnings for some areas of IA at sometime -- minimal I know is 3 hrs-- but with ditches full , this baby in rural IA is going to rock n roll. Throw in 2-4" of powder and its going to be a snow globe with 40+ mph winds in the country.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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20 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I expect Blizzard Warnings for some areas of IA at sometime -- minimal I know is 3 hrs-- but with ditches full , this baby in rural IA is going to rock n roll. Throw in 2-4" of powder and its going to be a snow globe with 40+ mph winds in the country.

Especially on top of an ice sheet. This is going to really maximize the blowing we get from ~40mph wind gusts

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm curious what the NWS will do with these.  Certainly headlines will be in order for portions of the area.  As Grizz mentioned, blizzard conditions are looking quite possible.  I can't remember the last time my county was under a blizzard warning.  

Yeah tough call for them on snow right now, but definitely helps the office’s messaging that conditions are going to be pretty bad whether it’s 2 or 6”.

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Travel will be difficult Friday morning per my office. Noice!!

-- Significant impacts with wind and snow Friday --

The system on Thursday may will require headlines. This will be a
mixed precipitation event at the start on Thursday. Once the cold
air wraps in behind the departing storm we will have about 12
hours of snow with west winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to near
50 mph by the lake shore (ECMWF ensemble mean wind gust at MKG is
50 mph around noon on Friday). Inland winds will gust to near 40
mph into the late afternoon on Friday.

This is one of those negative tilt troughs that causes a surface
to track near GRR around sunrise Friday and deepen rapidly. The
GFS and ECMWF ensembles all agree on the deepening and the track
of the low being near GRR Friday morning. The NAM is to far north
with the surface low, so it does not show the intensity that the
other two models do. Since the NAM is an outlier, I am thinking
that is not the models of choice for this system.

As the system wraps up, Thursday night into Friday, the 850
temperature falls from around 1c at midnight to -12c by sunrise!
That is a rather impressive temperature change in such a short
time, which is why the winds will be so strong. This track keeps
the deep moisture over Southwest Michigan into midday Friday on
both their ECMWF and GFS. The NAM has the deep moisture gone by
sunrise. The result of that will be significantly more snow if the
GFS and ECMWF turn out to be correct, which I think they will. As
temperatures fall from the mid 30s around midnight into the teens
during the day on Friday. Friday mid morning into early afternoon
this would mean snow, blowing and drifting snow with wind chills
falling to near zero. This would not be a good day to be outside.

We expect to get around a half inch of precipitation as rain or
mixed rain and snow before the cold air gets here so some
accumulations are possible over our northern CWA Thursday
afternoon into the evening before the air gets to warm for snow
for about 6 hours.

Both the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles agree that 3 to 6
inches of snow over most of our CWA. This also agrees with WPC and
their snowfall forecast. The ECMWF ensemble mean snowfall in MKG
is 5 inches by noon on Friday. Curiously the GFS ensemble mean is
nearly identical with the snowfall. None of the 50 members of the
ECMWF 00z ensemble have less than 2 inches at MKG, the mean is
around 5 inches. If I had a choice would chose not to travel in
Southwest Michigan during the daytime on Friday.
  • Snow 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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