Jump to content

2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low


hlcater

Recommended Posts

Current thinking for my area from GRR NWS.Β  2-5 with the surface low.Β  4-7 inches with the LES Friday with 40mph winds gusts.Β Β Β Let's hope this pans out!Β  I could see a couple feet drifts with this.Β  Snowpack here is at 3" and looks to hold throughout thursday.Β Β 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WOW...DMX talking nearly impossible travel and life threatening conditionsΒ 

The upper short wave will deepen and close off as it passes over far
eastern Iowa and towards Lake Michigan. The surface low will quickly
deepen as this occurs with a tightening pressure gradient developing
on the backside, which will include much of Iowa. These facts
combined with strong cold advection wrapping in on the backside of
the surface low suggest this system may very well outperform and
numerical guidance may play catchup right up until Thursday. Some of
this can be seen today with the increased QPF and mixed layers
winds. The other concern regarding the increased precipitation
amounts is the strong low level moisture advection from the Gulf
concurrent with a strong Pacific mid-level moisture feed. The low
pressure trajectory moving NNE may lead to more residence time of
precipitation across Iowa.

Mixed layer winds wind at or above mid 40 kts with strong cold
advection and steep low level lapse rates will lead to near max
momentum transport of these peak winds to the surface in addition to
the isallobaric component. The wind is a given with this event.
There is a deep snow pack in place but may be crusted over in places
due to last weekend icing and upcoming warmth and rain ahead of the
cold air. Crusted snow will produce a near frictionless surface for
blowing of new snow and the crust will likely erode with the strong
winds. At this time, biggest concerns will be blizzard conditions
with near impossible travel Thursday and Thursday night and falling
temperatures with wind chills in the -10 to -20 range.  Therefore,
any stranded persons could end up in a life threatening situation.
Expect headlines to begin tonight and will have further discussions
tomorrow.
  • Like 1
  • scream 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

WOW...DMX talking nearly impossible travel and life threatening conditionsΒ 


The upper short wave will deepen and close off as it passes over far
eastern Iowa and towards Lake Michigan. The surface low will quickly
deepen as this occurs with a tightening pressure gradient developing
on the backside, which will include much of Iowa. These facts
combined with strong cold advection wrapping in on the backside of
the surface low suggest this system may very well outperform and
numerical guidance may play catchup right up until Thursday. Some of
this can be seen today with the increased QPF and mixed layers
winds. The other concern regarding the increased precipitation
amounts is the strong low level moisture advection from the Gulf
concurrent with a strong Pacific mid-level moisture feed. The low
pressure trajectory moving NNE may lead to more residence time of
precipitation across Iowa.

Mixed layer winds wind at or above mid 40 kts with strong cold
advection and steep low level lapse rates will lead to near max
momentum transport of these peak winds to the surface in addition to
the isallobaric component. The wind is a given with this event.
There is a deep snow pack in place but may be crusted over in places
due to last weekend icing and upcoming warmth and rain ahead of the
cold air. Crusted snow will produce a near frictionless surface for
blowing of new snow and the crust will likely erode with the strong
winds. At this time, biggest concerns will be blizzard conditions
with near impossible travel Thursday and Thursday night and falling
temperatures with wind chills in the -10 to -20 range.  Therefore,
any stranded persons could end up in a life threatening situation.
Expect headlines to begin tonight and will have further discussions
tomorrow.

I'm liking this! Never want anyone hurt, but this sounds like it could be really interesting!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bud2380 said:

DVN pretty low key about Thursday.Β  1-2" for much of the area, up to 3" along Hwy 20.Β  Winds increasing.Β  They don't seem too concerned.Β  Looks like a WWA event.Β  Stark contrast from DMX.Β Β 

This morning Ervin was all in. Must depend on forecaster on desk. Getting conflicting signals each package.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Β 

(1/1: 6.4")

Β 

Β 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS continues to like the south-and-strong scenario.Β  Hopefully, it'll still be showing this in 24 hours.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Β  Β  Β  '21-22: 27.1"Β  Β  Β  '20-21: 52.5"Β  Β  Β  '19-20: 36.2"Β  Β  Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β  Β  Β Β '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA:

Latest model consensus supports event precipitation totals on the
order of .25 to .30 inch Thursday night. Tempered QPF a touch for
the Thursday afternoon period as blended dataset seems a little
early especially for central to eastern portions of the cwa. Really
tricky figuring out precipitation type because of the very strong
low level jet exceeding 45 knots that will be directed right at the
cwa. This in another one of those moving parts. High wet bulb
cooling potential and late day timing is expected to result in
precipitation beginning in the form of snow before transitioning to a
mix. The likelihood to changing over will be dependent on the warm
air advection at the surface, or in the lowest 2000 ft. Cannot rule
out a rain snow mix, but if had to pick right now, suspect that much
of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow (higher
precipitation rates combined with wet bulb cooling potential).
  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit AreaΒ 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"Β  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Quite the wound up low.Β  It could be low 30's in NMI while near 10Β degrees in Chicago Friday.Β Β 

Β 

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Current thinking for my area from GRR NWS.Β  2-5 with the surface low.Β  4-7 inches with the LES Friday with 40mph winds gusts.Β Β Β Let's hope this pans out!Β  I could see a couple feet drifts with this.Β  Snowpack here is at 3" and looks to hold throughout thursday.Β Β 

Can't really remember the last time we had this kind of bombing SLP taking this (or any) track during the winter months. Trying to draw a picture of this in my mind's eye is proving a bit challenging tbh. Which is a good thing. I'd say that the Hybrid storm during late January of 2019 was probably a good comparison for areas NW of here. We got the initial system snow but the following PV-driven lake effect bliz screwed us when the winds never got fully west but remained WSW. Have fears with a repeat of that for here this time as well. Nonetheless, this has an actual deepening SLP and the low baro should really provide for some great lift and dynamics. Friday will rock for those fortunate enough to get a favorable fetch off the lake. I expect to ride my familiar fringe yet again.

Quote

--Significant impacts from wind and snow Friday--

One of the recent model trends is for a deeper and slightly
farther east sfc low track late Thursday night and Friday. Most
guidance suggests a 980 mb or slightly lower sfc low centered
over nrn Lwr MI on Friday morning. Cold air will rush in quickly
early Friday morning with the sfc cold frontal passage and winds
will increase dramatically out of the west. EC ensemble wind gust
average is about 50 mph at MKG Friday, and near 40 mph inland.

The arrival of H8 air -15C or colder on Friday will crank up the
lake effect and additional, possibly significant, accumulations
are expected. Current thinking is for another 4-7" near and west
of Hwy 131 and 1-3" to the east. The strong winds will lead to
considerable blowing and drifting with whiteout conditions and
wind chills falling to near zero. Needless to say, travel
conditions on Friday will become hazardous to even dangerous.

Β 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β  Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.1Β Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"Β  (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = xx.x"Β 

Avg = 45.0"Β  (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β  Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β 

Avg = 49.7"Β  (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β  Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β  Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β  Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β  Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β  Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β  Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β  Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β  Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Β 

Can't really remember the last time we had this kind of bombing SLP taking this (or any) track during the winter months. Trying to draw a picture of this in my mind's eye is proving a bit challenging tbh. Which is a good thing. I'd say that the Hybrid storm during late January of 2019 was probably a good comparison for areas NW of here. We got the initial system snow but the following PV-driven lake effect bliz screwed us when the winds never got fully west but remained WSW. Have fears with a repeat of that for here this time as well. Nonetheless, this has an actual deepening SLP and the low baro should really provide for some great lift and dynamics. Friday will rock for those fortunate enough to get a favorable fetch off the lake. I expect to ride my familiar fringe yet again.

Β 

My sweet spot is due west or WSW wind. I should do well with how strong it may beΒ 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

My sweet spot is due west or WSW wind. I should do well with how strong it may beΒ 

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Β 

Can't really remember the last time we had this kind of bombing SLP taking this (or any) track during the winter months. Trying to draw a picture of this in my mind's eye is proving a bit challenging tbh. Which is a good thing. I'd say that the Hybrid storm during late January of 2019 was probably a good comparison for areas NW of here. We got the initial system snow but the following PV-driven lake effect bliz screwed us when the winds never got fully west but remained WSW. Have fears with a repeat of that for here this time as well. Nonetheless, this has an actual deepening SLP and the low baro should really provide for some great lift and dynamics. Friday will rock for those fortunate enough to get a favorable fetch off the lake. I expect to ride my familiar fringe yet again.

Β 

Kzoo does well with NW and WNW I believe. How do yall think the lake effect for Sunday-Monday looks? Better than Friday? Man I may have to call in sick and weenie it up on friday lol

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Money said:

NAM back SE from 12/18z runsΒ 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Β  Β  Β  '21-22: 27.1"Β  Β  Β  '20-21: 52.5"Β  Β  Β  '19-20: 36.2"Β  Β  Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β  Β  Β Β '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z 3k NAM similar to the 12k.Β  I expect it to continue to flop around for another 24 hours.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

  • Thanks 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Β  Β  Β  '21-22: 27.1"Β  Β  Β  '20-21: 52.5"Β  Β  Β  '19-20: 36.2"Β  Β  Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β  Β  Β Β '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the 12k NAM and RGEM both have a stout WAA "thump" snow swinging thru the Mitt from SW to NE, there are significant difference for my county.

The RGEM does not really have a strong southern SLP and focuses on the northern SLP. It's temp profile keeps snow the primary p-type way south. half-way thru Indiana actually, giving all the winners with the weekend storm a nice refresher. Treats mby very nicely as well; I need cold here to do well.

267333222_2021020218zRGEM-h53Surf.thumb.png.7403c5cf79ad400bb83d006fda7d68cf.png

Β 

Meanwhile the NAM wraps up the southern SLP and does so quite far west of the more eastward globals. Between that and it's warmer thermals I get a nasty round of ZR instead of thump snow. It does however, keep the LES going and going and going once the SLP bombs into the 970's up across the Straights area and on into western Ontario.

Icy! Hope it's just a warm bias:

2012392433_202102030zNAMh48Surf.thumb.png.6f0ec91c6f8881cb72f805b2f1fa71a5.png

695081436_202102030zNAMh60Surf.thumb.png.2050dd28c9621a217cf27db0dec69539.png

Β 

  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β  Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.1Β Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"Β  (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = xx.x"Β 

Avg = 45.0"Β  (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β  Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β 

Avg = 49.7"Β  (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β  Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β  Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β  Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β  Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β  Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β  Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β  Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β  Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Solid consensus on the 00z runs for at least a 2-4" event for CR/IC followed by a period of blowing. I do wonder if we see headlines posted later tonight. DMX said they planned on it, but DVN cant seem to decide if they like the storm or not.

  • Confused 1

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Β 

(1/1: 6.4")

Β 

Β 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Solid consensus on the 00z runs for at least a 2-4" event for CR/IC followed by a period of blowing. I do wonder if we see headlines posted later tonight. DMX said they planned on it, but DVN cant seem to decide if they like the storm or not.

DmxΒ  gonna be late to the table again?Β  Β Looks not another plowable event here.Β 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Madtown said:

First WSW!

I haven't had one since 2018. What's yer beef?

  • scream 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β  Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.1Β Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"Β  (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = xx.x"Β 

Avg = 45.0"Β  (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β  Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β 

Avg = 49.7"Β  (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β  Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β  Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β  Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β  Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β  Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β  Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β  Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β  Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...