2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low

[james1976]

Local met Schnack said wind would be after the snowfall. I thought it was gonna happen same time. Still should be pretty epic. 

[james1976]

42 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

2-4” still seems like a good bet here. Though wouldn’t be surprised with isolated 5-6” reports.

Good luck measuring lol

[East Dubzz]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Good luck measuring lol

Yeah that’s why I’m not all too concerned about the exact amount at this point. Not going to be able to accurately measure it anyway.

[hlcater]

nice run from the Euro here. With the solid 00z consensus, almost certain we see headlines for snow and blowing snow in a few hours.

[Grizzcoat]

another view-

[Hawkeye]

The east-central Iowa hot spot is showing up on multiple models.  Can it hold for another day+?

[Grizzcoat]

Long range RAP-

[Grizzcoat]

Somewhat old from yday afternoon but is does show progress S compared to previous forecasts-

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Looks good up here...just need it on the ground not in the models. Snowmobile clubs and news started talking about it today...the whole northwoods is giddy...finally!

They will be popping bottles of champaign in the snow once it starts falling!  I'm happy to hear the enthusiasm is heating up.  You guys up north have had it rough this year and the local businesses need the snow more than ever.  Hopefully this system is a harbinger of things to come up there and extends the winter sports this season to recoup what has been lost.  Good luck!

 

00z Euro has eyes for the Northwoods of Wisco...farther south, it has trended colder/snowier and lines up towards the RPM/GGEM/GFS for N IL/S MI/N IN....3-5" refresher is welcomed...I'd take a few inches on top of the deep snow pack any day of the week before the PV visits.

[Grizzcoat]

Long range HRRR-

[East Dubzz]

I would have to think we’re going to be getting some kind of weather headline with the morning shift here.

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Quad Cites issuing watches along and N of I-80. Advisories S. OMA advisories. MPX watches S.  DMX pending....... as usual.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX with new graphics--

[Tom]

00z EPS...

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX blizzard warnings N and NE.Bring it!!!

[Tom]

@james1976is going to love seeing this when he wakes up!

[East Dubzz]

I would definitely take 3-5”

[Grizzcoat]

rap-

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Euro Kuchera-

[james1976]

Yup! Blizzard Warning already issued. DMX said its moving in a bit faster. Front might already be here by sunrise tomorrow. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Tomorrow morning may be another day of late starts or no school in the area.  Fast moving system that could produce up to 2" of snow, but preceded by potential ice and sleet.  Seems like as soon as it gets here, it's gone.  Will be interesting to see where a potential heavier band and wind set up.  With the snow on the ground it may be hazardous tomorrow morning.   

[Madtown]

This thing gonna move more east up this way...starting be on the western edge of the heavier stuff?

[East Dubzz]

Looks like a shift East on the NAM? And also quite a bit weaker than the 06z run?

[bud2380]

HRRR is very progressive.  The precip moves in and out of Iowa in roughly 6 hours at any given location. 

 

[bud2380]

LOL, wow massive changes on the NAM.  QPF dropped by half in many areas.  

[Hawkeye]

The morning models so far are going weaker and more progressive, kinda pulling the rug out from under Iowa.

[Stacsh]

I'm in a good spot, but disappointing this is weakening as the event nears.  Really wished it would have deepened more as it moved into Michigan.  Oh well.  Probably cut my totals in half to about 4-5".  

[East Dubzz]

Certainly not the best trend with the morning models, but the totals are more in line with my expectations at least.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

They will be popping bottles of champaign in the snow once it starts falling!  I'm happy to hear the enthusiasm is heating up.  You guys up north have had it rough this year and the local businesses need the snow more than ever.  Hopefully this system is a harbinger of things to come up there and extends the winter sports this season to recoup what has been lost.  Good luck!

 

00z Euro has eyes for the Northwoods of Wisco...farther south, it has trended colder/snowier and lines up towards the RPM/GGEM/GFS for N IL/S MI/N IN....3-5" refresher is welcomed...I'd take a few inches on top of the deep snow pack any day of the week before the PV visits.

Nice little 6" lollie over me. Thx Euro Op. EPS and most others showing a solid 3-4". Would be gr8 if this comes thru.

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice little 6" lollie over me. Thx Euro Op. EPS and most others showing a solid 3-4". Would be gr8 if this comes thru.

It's trending better so far this morning for MI...below is the 06z Euro 10:1

[Hawkeye]

The 12z RDPS is still solid for many, actually a bit better over here compared to the last couple runs.

[BMT]

GFS:

[Hawkeye]

Another storm where models are going in opposite directions as we approach the start.

[bud2380]

GFS might be wrong, but it's been pretty dang consistent. 

[Hawkeye]

12z GDPS is still solid

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

I'm in a good spot, but disappointing this is weakening as the event nears.  Really wished it would have deepened more as it moved into Michigan.  Oh well.  Probably cut my totals in half to about 4-5".  

This may not hit with such a smack-down as it was looking yesterday, but you will no doubt do better than that over a 48 hr period late Thurs to late Saturday. GFS painting 10-11" totals in Ottawa and Allegan Cnty's. Even has GR near 9" and it's a global not known for picking up on LE very well.

 

 

[bud2380]

UK pretty weak

 

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UK pretty weak

That's not what I want to see.  It's pretty similar to the NAM.