Madtown Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 wow....just read all the pinpoint forecasts around me...4-6" maybe 5-7". Downplaying because of past events this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFSv16.... lol... I'll take the under. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Also as a side note, the birds and deer the last 3 days have been going nuts feeding around the clock not just at peak times. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: GFSv16.... lol... I'll take the under. Sweet. Lock it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 The monday wave is going nuts... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: The monday wave is going nuts... wrong thread, but the GFS has heavy snow in Iowa with NEGATIVE 2M surfaces temperatures. That would be epic. Will not verify, but epic run so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 my bad... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 too many waves--- if you miss out on this winter pulse, you've had it before- or don't remember. This is borderline epic in progs. Still needs to happen, but my goodness- the potential is unreal and its multiple runs of many models. SIT BACK and ENJOY-- That's all I got. Midnight tonight I will be all over this. CRash.... 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 DVN going against virtually all model guidance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Really good AFD by LOT and also mentioning possibility of thundersnow. Full technical discussion... Our powerhouse cold front is finally making an appearance in the surface observations, with 35 to 45 mph northwest wind gusts noted pushing across the Dakotas and into northwest Nebraska. This front will surge into the region through Thursday afternoon and evening, delivering sharply falling temperatures and a likely period of fairly strong wind gusts. The main focus here remains on the relatively brief window for precipitation, developing across our I-39 corridor locales towards mid-morning tomorrow, and spreading east by late-morning and early-afternoon. The parent shortwave trough axis will be gradually acquiring a neutral tilt as it approaches our longitude. Quite the shift in the thermal profiles (towards a colder note) over the last few days with an overall somewhat deeper system with a developing 990s mb surface low through the day. From a dynamics/kinematics perspective, this incoming system is definitely checking quite a few boxes. With strong system- preceding DCVA, plus robust upper divergence in the left exit region of a cyclonically-arcing 130+ kt jet streak, it`s no surprise to see layer Q-vector convergence maximized over our region in the roughly noon-7 pm timeframe. This forcing will arrive with the addition of another anomalously moist airmass, characterized by PWATs pushing 0.6 to 0.7". One of the somewhat concerning aspects (outside of the wind potential) is the presence of impressively steep lapse rates. Cross sections through the incoming baroclinic zone show a deeper-than-typical layer where theta-e lapse rates trend towards 0 or even locally negative for a time tomorrow afternoon. The NAM/NAMNEST which, admittedly have their issues with what look like some contamination in regional soundings, actually carve out pockets of MUCAPE in excess of 50 J/kg, and this is seen across the suite of afternoon guidance. Given the brief overlap of strongest ascent during this period, don`t think it`s overly outlandish to expect a brief window where thundersnow is a possibility. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Surprised they’re just not going with a blizzard warning over here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, East Dubzz said: Surprised they’re just not going with a blizzard warning over here. Prolly got a call from GRR 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: too many waves--- if you miss out on this winter pulse, you've had it before- or don't remember. This is borderline epic in progs. Still needs to happen, but my goodness- the potential is unreal and its multiple runs of many models. SIT BACK and ENJOY-- That's all I got. Midnight tonight I will be all over this. CRash.... For sure.. Ive had 6 snow events here since Dec 28.. Now the rapid fire begins. Very reminiscent of 2014! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z HRRR.... once again backed off the larger area of 4" in favor of a couple bands with a gap in between. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Rain/snow mix has started here. Temp 32F 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Holy cow, NAM! This just seems like a major outlier that's unlikely to pan out. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Lol NAM is a roller coaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z 3k NAM is doing something simliar. The NAMs are almost an inverse (over Iowa) of the HRRR. Where the HRRR has a dry band (Waterloo), the NAMs are very wet. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z GFS/EURO 0Z NAM AND 3KNAM showing 8-12" here. Only weather outlet forecasting 8-12" accuweather...that makes me a little nervous. But seriously wondering what the thought is on holding g amounts so low. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Latest RAP 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 All the other 00z HiRes models show widespread 2-4" in Iowa and CR getting 4-8". One looks very similar to the NAM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The freezing drizzle is pretty intense right now. Just got off work and the van I drove for work was caked in ice. Roads were also sketchy. Only good thing about this is that it'll put a crust on the snow that we have right now, which will limit blowing impacts. 6 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Kinda liking the latest RAP and HRRR runs. Going to be a quick hitter up this way, but it might pound for a bit. Models showing a nice band over/near the metro. Just give me 1-2" of fresh powder. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z RDPS - holding steady, no jackpot bands, just a general 3-4". 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: Kinda liking the latest RAP and HRRR runs. Going to be a quick hitter up this way, but it might pound for a bit. Models showing a nice band over/near the metro. Just give me 1-2" of fresh powder. Same, I'd like some fresh stuff to cover the exposed grass before I'm stuck below zero for 5-7 days. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 00z RDPS - holding steady, no jackpot bands, just a general 3-4". The rdps doesn’t really have any rain to start either. Shows snow the entire time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 There is convective potential here with steep mid level lapse rates leading to some conditional instability, so a weenie band, or general high variance in snow amounts over short distances might be more prone to happen. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z GFS no deviation from its bullishness. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS still shows 6-7” for Iowa city and CR. Makes the NWS 1-2” forecast seem suspect. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z GFSv16 even more bullish than the op. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Still looks solid....GRB dropped my accumulation 6" max...scratching my head 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Liking our chances at 4” here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Some great runs the night before the event. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 All I can say is if we get that much fresh snow on top of the current snowpack with the incoming winds..........Definitely blizzard. Could really get wild if all pans out. Really hope people take the headlines seriously. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Canadian coming in wetter for Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BMT said: Canadian coming in wetter for Iowa Yes, the GDPS has added more of a jackpot zone in the same area as the NAMs/GFSs. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Anyone have the wind gust maps from the latest runs? I don’t have access. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z UK... this model is clearly not organizing the snow quite as early as the more bullish models. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 DMX had a heck of an afternoon AFD. This quote pertains to Thursday: The blowing snow will make some roadways impassable. Motorist could become stranded on rural roadways and with wind chills falling below zero, this could become a dangerous situation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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