2/4-5 Potential Wound-up Low

[Madtown]

Ukie in at 6-7" at 10:1. Need me the Euro and then flakes to measure

[OmahaSnowFan]

[gabel23]

22 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I seen it on radar scope!! Man hopefully signs of this thing dropping more surprises!!

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro does not have any jackpot or dry bands, just a general snow that increases as you head north and east.

[Madtown]

well first few flakes flying....see ya all in the am. Hoping for 8" +

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Stacsh said:

This is just with a WWA, I'm assuming if things play out we will go to WSW, but man GR is soooo conservative.  I thought it would change, but nope.  5-10" of snow in 24 hours with 20-40 mph winds won't give us a watch or a warning?  Especially with virtually no snowstorms this year yet?  I bet Jaster has some words for this lol

Here's a word "Jokers"

I mean seriously, even if they're playing the "duration" card, any county with 8+ call should be automatic Warning. Period.

Never mind their own wording of whiteouts, visibility and windchill both at ZERO by Friday mid-day.

Oh, add drifting on rural road. And don't forget to toss in a Flash Freeze even on treated roads as temps plummet.

Yeah, WWA material right there buddy!

So much for "impact based headlines"

Odd that their own Update uses the WSW acronym twice?? Huh wut??

Maybe they are planning an upgrade based on how things look overnight, at least in favored LES counties.

If these kinds of pile-ups and deaths couldn't awaken them to the dangers of these conditions, I don't know what can?

 

 

[jaster220]

Logical minds are superior at KLOT

Quote

The Winter Storm Watch has been converted to a Winter Storm
Warning for Lee, Ogle, Winnebago, and Boone Counties, with a start
time that`s been moved up slightly to 10 AM Thursday. While
snowfall amounts have not materially increased in the warning
(3-5" with isolated amounts to 6" possible), the combination of a
period of rather heavy, convectively-driven rates coinciding with
the afternoon/evening commute, rapidly increasing snow:liquid
ratios and a likely period of fairly strong westerly winds gusting
to 40 if not 45 mph by later Thursday afternoon and evening were
concerning enough to warrant an impacts-based warning there.

Should be the same in much of WMI (first 2 counties along the lakeshore at least).

 

[hlcater]

HRRR generally underdid the extent of surface WAA. CR/IC up to 34 while south central Iowa is approaching 40. Realistically, this probably doesnt matter a whole lot, but may push back the changeover to snow by an hour.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, St Paul Storm said:

Kinda liking the latest RAP and HRRR runs. Going to be a quick hitter up this way, but it might pound for a bit. Models showing a nice band over/near the metro. Just give me 1-2" of fresh powder. 

What is your snow depth???

 

[Tom]

00z Euro...well, it's about showtime and it seems reasonable that ORD could pick up 3" out of this system which is a perfect scenario to freshen up the snow pack after taking a bit of a hit yesterday.  I'll go out and measure my snow depth later this morning to see what it is prior to this system.  As far as the modeling goes, I think the Canadian handled this one the best showing the colder solution across IL/IN/S MI compared to the other models 3+ days out.  The Euro was back and forth but has since caught up to the idea that the SN/RN line looks to end up a lot farther south than previously forecast.

 

Here is the NWS NDFD...

[hlcater]

Some of these models really hammering home the existence of a weenie band somewhere in eastern Iowa tomorrow. Enough of them doing it (with some CAM and HREF support) that it will absolutely be something to look for. The 06z NAMs have it.

[Grizzcoat]

total precip of 07Z RAP- up to you figure out whats rain or not, most is snow. RAP is much wetter than HRRR.

[Tom]

00z GEFS...dang, 6-8" mean in E IA/NW IL up through Wisco...

[Grizzcoat]

Here are some airports around IA with 7Z RAP hour by hour- a nice feature I just found.

Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: DSM    LAT=  41.53 LON=  -93.65 ELE=   965

                                            07Z FEB04
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    1 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
THU 07Z 04-FEB   2.4     5.2    1003      74      37             552     549    
THU 08Z 04-FEB   1.8     5.0    1002      79      39    0.00     550     549    
THU 09Z 04-FEB   1.5     5.0    1001      81      46    0.00     549     549    
THU 10Z 04-FEB   1.1     4.5    1000      84      53    0.00     548     548    
THU 11Z 04-FEB   1.3     2.8              88      68    0.00     547     547    
THU 12Z 04-FEB   1.4     0.8    1001      89      92    0.00     546     545    
THU 13Z 04-FEB   0.5    -0.8    1001      96      99    0.04     544     543    
THU 14Z 04-FEB  -0.6    -2.3    1002      95      97    0.11     543     541    
THU 15Z 04-FEB  -2.6    -3.8    1004      89      99    0.08     543     539    
THU 16Z 04-FEB  -4.1    -4.0    1004      88      95    0.02     540     537    
THU 17Z 04-FEB  -4.1    -5.8    1004      87      93    0.02     538     534    
THU 18Z 04-FEB  -4.3    -5.7    1005      84      92    0.01     535     531 

Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: CID    LAT=  41.88 LON=  -91.70 ELE=   869

                                            07Z FEB04
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    1 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
THU 07Z 04-FEB   1.2     6.1    1006      82      48             553     548    
THU 08Z 04-FEB   0.7     5.7    1005      81      74    0.00     552     547    
THU 09Z 04-FEB   0.0     5.3    1004      80      59    0.00     551     547    
THU 10Z 04-FEB  -0.6     5.0    1003      79      60    0.00     550     547    
THU 11Z 04-FEB  -0.5     4.6              81      80    0.00     549     547    
THU 12Z 04-FEB  -0.3     3.5    1002      83      87    0.00     548     547    
THU 13Z 04-FEB   0.5     2.3    1001      86     100    0.00     546     546    
THU 14Z 04-FEB   0.5     0.2    1001      88     100    0.07     546     545    
THU 15Z 04-FEB   0.3    -1.2    1001      96     100    0.05     545     544    
THU 16Z 04-FEB   0.2    -2.0     999      97      98    0.06     542     542    
THU 17Z 04-FEB   0.3    -3.8     998      97      97    0.11     540     541    
THU 18Z 04-FEB  -1.0    -5.0     999      94      96    0.10     537     538    
THU 19Z 04-FEB  -2.8    -6.2    1001      86      99    0.07     536     535    
THU 20Z 04-FEB  -4.0    -6.0    1002      84      95    0.01     534     532    
THU 21Z 04-FEB  -5.0    -6.0    1001      83      85    0.01     530     529 

[Grizzcoat]

Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: IOW    LAT=  41.63 LON=  -91.55 ELE=   669

                                            07Z FEB04
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    1 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
THU 07Z 04-FEB   0.9     6.4    1006      81      51             554     548    
THU 08Z 04-FEB   0.5     6.0    1005      81      71    0.00     552     548    
THU 09Z 04-FEB  -0.2     5.4    1005      79      59    0.00     551     547    
THU 10Z 04-FEB  -0.7     5.1    1004      79      65    0.00     551     547    
THU 11Z 04-FEB  -0.4     4.9              81      85    0.00     550     548    
THU 12Z 04-FEB   0.3     4.0    1003      83      81    0.00     549     547    
THU 13Z 04-FEB   0.6     3.1    1001      85     100    0.00     547     546    
THU 14Z 04-FEB   0.7     1.4    1001      87     100    0.09     547     546    
THU 15Z 04-FEB   0.4    -0.6    1001      93     100    0.08     546     544    
THU 16Z 04-FEB   0.3    -1.4     999      96     100    0.04     543     543    
THU 17Z 04-FEB   0.5    -3.1     998      98      99    0.05     541     542    
THU 18Z 04-FEB   0.1    -3.8     998      97      95    0.09     538     540    
THU 19Z 04-FEB  -1.9    -5.7    1000      87      99    0.11     537     536    
THU 20Z 04-FEB  -3.3    -5.8    1002      84      94    0.01     535     533    
THU 21Z 04-FEB  -4.3    -5.5    1001      84      88    0.01     531     530

Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: AMW    LAT=  42.00 LON=  -93.62 ELE=   955

                                            07Z FEB04
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    1 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
THU 07Z 04-FEB   1.2     5.1    1003      74      40             551     549    
THU 08Z 04-FEB   0.4     4.9    1002      75      42    0.00     550     548    
THU 09Z 04-FEB   0.8     4.7    1001      76      44    0.00     548     548    
THU 10Z 04-FEB   0.0     3.5    1000      79      54    0.00     547     547    
THU 11Z 04-FEB   0.5     1.8              84      75    0.00     546     546    
THU 12Z 04-FEB   0.6     0.4    1002      87      97    0.00     545     544    
THU 13Z 04-FEB  -0.1    -0.8    1001      93      98    0.02     543     542    
THU 14Z 04-FEB  -2.1    -2.9    1003      93      99    0.12     542     540    
THU 15Z 04-FEB  -4.3    -4.4    1004      89      98    0.08     541     537    
THU 16Z 04-FEB  -5.2    -4.5    1004      88      93    0.05     538     535    
THU 17Z 04-FEB  -5.5    -5.9    1004      85      91    0.02     536     533    
THU 18Z 04-FEB  -5.6    -6.0    1005      84      87    0.01     534     530

[Grizzcoat]

dang- OMA radar is impressive for being precip mode!! 

[Grizzcoat]

08Z RAP- total precip 18hr- pretty rock steady

[Tom]

Reading through LOT's update, this met is fired up and is gun-ho on the heavy snowfall rates later today.

Quote

What this afternoon snow area has going for it to be heavy is
copious moisture, instability, and a deep convergent focus. The
RAP, NAM, and GFS all indicate precipitable waters of around 0.7
of an inch, in the top 5th percentile for this time of year, as
well as 700-850 mb mixing ratios of 4 g/kg. In a warm
advection/isentropic ascent setup, those values for about 4 hours
should yield 3 inches of snow where it is all snow (that doesn`t
account for other forcing adding to that). Instability-wise, there
is a large area above 600 mb of negative theta-e lapse rates, and
even a wee bit of positive CAPE indicated in the RAP and HRRR
soundings. Finally, the deep layer confluent flow into the
strengthening low, as well as frontogenesis in the lower levels
implied by the strengthening Arctic front, yield a good zone of
focus for the heavier rates wide enough that they should last 2-4
hours. Also worth noting, the thermal profiles especially
along/north of I-80 are forecast by the RAP to become deeply
isothermal around -4C after they dynamically cool, and this can
often be a good setup for riming and larger snowflakes too. All
this has us feeling modestly confident in some 1 inch per hour
rates in that heavy snow window this afternoon, and visibility
of 1/4SM to 1/2SM. This will happen prior to and into the
beginning of the evening commute, hence large impacts likely.

 

[Tom]

The convective nature is showing up everywhere on the CONUS radar, esp in NE and near MSP...

 

Tracking the pressure falls will be interesting today...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl

[CentralNebWeather]

Many late school starts this morning, not us, we’re on time. We had a conservative estimate of 2” as I scooped a path to the garage. Blowing snow has led to some drifting. It has now covered the few open patches that showed up yesterday as we reached a high of 44. Still a lot of snow here and hope to add more in the coming week. 

[St Paul Storm]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

What is your snow depth???

 

We had a bit of melting yesterday. I think I’m around 7-8” in mby. But we’ve had snow otg since Dec 23. Pretty impressive considering how warm it’s been so far this winter. 

[St Paul Storm]

Ripping pretty good out there. Radar has filled in nicely. I woke up around 3am and looked at the radar and wasn’t impressed. The point is now up to 2-4” this morning. 

[St Paul Storm]

Just went outside to take the trash out. Already 1.5" down. There must have been some serious rates for a bit between 3-6am. I haven't gone back and looked at the radar history, but Tom mentioned the convective look up this way. Thinking we hit at least 3". Good luck to everyone downstream later today. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Seeing reports online, unofficial, that many places in Central Nebraska received between 1.5-2.5" this morning.  My estimate of at least 2" at my house is probably pretty close.

[shakjen]

Freezing rain just started here

[Grizzcoat]

Morning AFD from DMX suggested winds wouldn't be as strong as thought earlier in the week likely not see G over 50mph.

Boone,IA

Check that= KBNW 041315Z AUTO 33028G50KT 1/2SM +UP OVC003 M01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2

that's 58mph.

And one thing that I never understand with automation-- if the precip is "Unknown"- how is it "heavy"--- ???

[Stormy]

A few lightning strikes on this map.

[CentralNebWeather]

Sitting in my classroom this morning on the 2nd floor of our high school, the wind is howling from the north.  I have 3 large windows that face north and the snow is blowing off of other buildings.  Our school parking lot had small drifts on it again, and the custodian told me they are having a hard time finding new places to put the snow.  I mentioned multiple chances of snow in the next week, and she wasn't smiling.  They have had a rough job in the last week and half moving snow.  

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

[BMT]

Precip has started here and it was snow right away.  lets hope it stays that way!

[bud2380]

It was a rain snow mix on the very south side of CR, it is now all snow and is already sticking.  Coming down at a solid clip.  

[james1976]

Snowing hard here already and starting to get windy already as well. I stayed home from work. Let the games begin!

[Hawkeye]

I was expecting rain at first, but it started as some graupel and is quickly changing to snow.

[East Dubzz]

Good to see the reports of a quick changeover to snow.

[james1976]

Perfect timing. This whole thing started right after sunrise. So this will be an awesome daytime event. Looks like an inch down already. 

[Niko]

I would not be surprised , if my area experiences thundersnow w this system. If there is, than, most likely accumulations would lean higher than what is predicted, which is a 3-5inch snowfall for a good portion of SEMI. Winds will also be a factor as well. Snow arrives in the late PM hr and continues through after midnight b4 tapering off shortly thereaafter. This will be an all snowevent btw!

NOAA:

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow moderate to heavy band of snow
  will lift from southwest to northeast across the area this
  evening. Snow will begin between 4pm and 7pm with locations
  around the Thumb having the later start time. Heaviest snow will
  fall between 7pm and midnight where snowfall rates may briefly
  reach a half to one inch per hour. Snow rates will decrease
  after midnight.

 

[Hawkeye]

Hmm... my snow has changed back to graupel.  I'm also not real impressed with the precip shield to the southwest.  In addition, it appears much of the snow may fall while the temp is still mild, which would limit the blowing.  We'll see.

[Madtown]

1.5' down this am goregeous....hope to end in double digits now. The shoreline in the left side of the pic is .3mi away.

[james1976]

Pounding here. Too band this stuff is only gonna last a couple hours.