Madtown Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Ukie in at 6-7" at 10:1. Need me the Euro and then flakes to measure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I seen it on radar scope!! Man hopefully signs of this thing dropping more surprises!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z Euro does not have any jackpot or dry bands, just a general snow that increases as you head north and east. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 well first few flakes flying....see ya all in the am. Hoping for 8" + 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 hours ago, Stacsh said: This is just with a WWA, I'm assuming if things play out we will go to WSW, but man GR is soooo conservative. I thought it would change, but nope. 5-10" of snow in 24 hours with 20-40 mph winds won't give us a watch or a warning? Especially with virtually no snowstorms this year yet? I bet Jaster has some words for this lol Here's a word "Jokers" I mean seriously, even if they're playing the "duration" card, any county with 8+ call should be automatic Warning. Period. Never mind their own wording of whiteouts, visibility and windchill both at ZERO by Friday mid-day. Oh, add drifting on rural road. And don't forget to toss in a Flash Freeze even on treated roads as temps plummet. Yeah, WWA material right there buddy! So much for "impact based headlines" Odd that their own Update uses the WSW acronym twice?? Huh wut?? Maybe they are planning an upgrade based on how things look overnight, at least in favored LES counties. If these kinds of pile-ups and deaths couldn't awaken them to the dangers of these conditions, I don't know what can? 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Logical minds are superior at KLOT Quote The Winter Storm Watch has been converted to a Winter Storm Warning for Lee, Ogle, Winnebago, and Boone Counties, with a start time that`s been moved up slightly to 10 AM Thursday. While snowfall amounts have not materially increased in the warning (3-5" with isolated amounts to 6" possible), the combination of a period of rather heavy, convectively-driven rates coinciding with the afternoon/evening commute, rapidly increasing snow:liquid ratios and a likely period of fairly strong westerly winds gusting to 40 if not 45 mph by later Thursday afternoon and evening were concerning enough to warrant an impacts-based warning there. Should be the same in much of WMI (first 2 counties along the lakeshore at least). Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 HRRR generally underdid the extent of surface WAA. CR/IC up to 34 while south central Iowa is approaching 40. Realistically, this probably doesnt matter a whole lot, but may push back the changeover to snow by an hour. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 hours ago, St Paul Storm said: Kinda liking the latest RAP and HRRR runs. Going to be a quick hitter up this way, but it might pound for a bit. Models showing a nice band over/near the metro. Just give me 1-2" of fresh powder. What is your snow depth??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z Euro...well, it's about showtime and it seems reasonable that ORD could pick up 3" out of this system which is a perfect scenario to freshen up the snow pack after taking a bit of a hit yesterday. I'll go out and measure my snow depth later this morning to see what it is prior to this system. As far as the modeling goes, I think the Canadian handled this one the best showing the colder solution across IL/IN/S MI compared to the other models 3+ days out. The Euro was back and forth but has since caught up to the idea that the SN/RN line looks to end up a lot farther south than previously forecast. Here is the NWS NDFD... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Some of these models really hammering home the existence of a weenie band somewhere in eastern Iowa tomorrow. Enough of them doing it (with some CAM and HREF support) that it will absolutely be something to look for. The 06z NAMs have it. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 total precip of 07Z RAP- up to you figure out whats rain or not, most is snow. RAP is much wetter than HRRR. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z GEFS...dang, 6-8" mean in E IA/NW IL up through Wisco... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Here are some airports around IA with 7Z RAP hour by hour- a nice feature I just found. Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: DSM LAT= 41.53 LON= -93.65 ELE= 965 07Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 1 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 07Z 04-FEB 2.4 5.2 1003 74 37 552 549 THU 08Z 04-FEB 1.8 5.0 1002 79 39 0.00 550 549 THU 09Z 04-FEB 1.5 5.0 1001 81 46 0.00 549 549 THU 10Z 04-FEB 1.1 4.5 1000 84 53 0.00 548 548 THU 11Z 04-FEB 1.3 2.8 88 68 0.00 547 547 THU 12Z 04-FEB 1.4 0.8 1001 89 92 0.00 546 545 THU 13Z 04-FEB 0.5 -0.8 1001 96 99 0.04 544 543 THU 14Z 04-FEB -0.6 -2.3 1002 95 97 0.11 543 541 THU 15Z 04-FEB -2.6 -3.8 1004 89 99 0.08 543 539 THU 16Z 04-FEB -4.1 -4.0 1004 88 95 0.02 540 537 THU 17Z 04-FEB -4.1 -5.8 1004 87 93 0.02 538 534 THU 18Z 04-FEB -4.3 -5.7 1005 84 92 0.01 535 531 Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: CID LAT= 41.88 LON= -91.70 ELE= 869 07Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 1 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 07Z 04-FEB 1.2 6.1 1006 82 48 553 548 THU 08Z 04-FEB 0.7 5.7 1005 81 74 0.00 552 547 THU 09Z 04-FEB 0.0 5.3 1004 80 59 0.00 551 547 THU 10Z 04-FEB -0.6 5.0 1003 79 60 0.00 550 547 THU 11Z 04-FEB -0.5 4.6 81 80 0.00 549 547 THU 12Z 04-FEB -0.3 3.5 1002 83 87 0.00 548 547 THU 13Z 04-FEB 0.5 2.3 1001 86 100 0.00 546 546 THU 14Z 04-FEB 0.5 0.2 1001 88 100 0.07 546 545 THU 15Z 04-FEB 0.3 -1.2 1001 96 100 0.05 545 544 THU 16Z 04-FEB 0.2 -2.0 999 97 98 0.06 542 542 THU 17Z 04-FEB 0.3 -3.8 998 97 97 0.11 540 541 THU 18Z 04-FEB -1.0 -5.0 999 94 96 0.10 537 538 THU 19Z 04-FEB -2.8 -6.2 1001 86 99 0.07 536 535 THU 20Z 04-FEB -4.0 -6.0 1002 84 95 0.01 534 532 THU 21Z 04-FEB -5.0 -6.0 1001 83 85 0.01 530 529 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: IOW LAT= 41.63 LON= -91.55 ELE= 669 07Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 1 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 07Z 04-FEB 0.9 6.4 1006 81 51 554 548 THU 08Z 04-FEB 0.5 6.0 1005 81 71 0.00 552 548 THU 09Z 04-FEB -0.2 5.4 1005 79 59 0.00 551 547 THU 10Z 04-FEB -0.7 5.1 1004 79 65 0.00 551 547 THU 11Z 04-FEB -0.4 4.9 81 85 0.00 550 548 THU 12Z 04-FEB 0.3 4.0 1003 83 81 0.00 549 547 THU 13Z 04-FEB 0.6 3.1 1001 85 100 0.00 547 546 THU 14Z 04-FEB 0.7 1.4 1001 87 100 0.09 547 546 THU 15Z 04-FEB 0.4 -0.6 1001 93 100 0.08 546 544 THU 16Z 04-FEB 0.3 -1.4 999 96 100 0.04 543 543 THU 17Z 04-FEB 0.5 -3.1 998 98 99 0.05 541 542 THU 18Z 04-FEB 0.1 -3.8 998 97 95 0.09 538 540 THU 19Z 04-FEB -1.9 -5.7 1000 87 99 0.11 537 536 THU 20Z 04-FEB -3.3 -5.8 1002 84 94 0.01 535 533 THU 21Z 04-FEB -4.3 -5.5 1001 84 88 0.01 531 530 Rapid Refresh FORECAST FOR: AMW LAT= 42.00 LON= -93.62 ELE= 955 07Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 1 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 07Z 04-FEB 1.2 5.1 1003 74 40 551 549 THU 08Z 04-FEB 0.4 4.9 1002 75 42 0.00 550 548 THU 09Z 04-FEB 0.8 4.7 1001 76 44 0.00 548 548 THU 10Z 04-FEB 0.0 3.5 1000 79 54 0.00 547 547 THU 11Z 04-FEB 0.5 1.8 84 75 0.00 546 546 THU 12Z 04-FEB 0.6 0.4 1002 87 97 0.00 545 544 THU 13Z 04-FEB -0.1 -0.8 1001 93 98 0.02 543 542 THU 14Z 04-FEB -2.1 -2.9 1003 93 99 0.12 542 540 THU 15Z 04-FEB -4.3 -4.4 1004 89 98 0.08 541 537 THU 16Z 04-FEB -5.2 -4.5 1004 88 93 0.05 538 535 THU 17Z 04-FEB -5.5 -5.9 1004 85 91 0.02 536 533 THU 18Z 04-FEB -5.6 -6.0 1005 84 87 0.01 534 530 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 dang- OMA radar is impressive for being precip mode!! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 08Z RAP- total precip 18hr- pretty rock steady Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Reading through LOT's update, this met is fired up and is gun-ho on the heavy snowfall rates later today. Quote What this afternoon snow area has going for it to be heavy is copious moisture, instability, and a deep convergent focus. The RAP, NAM, and GFS all indicate precipitable waters of around 0.7 of an inch, in the top 5th percentile for this time of year, as well as 700-850 mb mixing ratios of 4 g/kg. In a warm advection/isentropic ascent setup, those values for about 4 hours should yield 3 inches of snow where it is all snow (that doesn`t account for other forcing adding to that). Instability-wise, there is a large area above 600 mb of negative theta-e lapse rates, and even a wee bit of positive CAPE indicated in the RAP and HRRR soundings. Finally, the deep layer confluent flow into the strengthening low, as well as frontogenesis in the lower levels implied by the strengthening Arctic front, yield a good zone of focus for the heavier rates wide enough that they should last 2-4 hours. Also worth noting, the thermal profiles especially along/north of I-80 are forecast by the RAP to become deeply isothermal around -4C after they dynamically cool, and this can often be a good setup for riming and larger snowflakes too. All this has us feeling modestly confident in some 1 inch per hour rates in that heavy snow window this afternoon, and visibility of 1/4SM to 1/2SM. This will happen prior to and into the beginning of the evening commute, hence large impacts likely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 The convective nature is showing up everywhere on the CONUS radar, esp in NE and near MSP... Tracking the pressure falls will be interesting today... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Many late school starts this morning, not us, we’re on time. We had a conservative estimate of 2” as I scooped a path to the garage. Blowing snow has led to some drifting. It has now covered the few open patches that showed up yesterday as we reached a high of 44. Still a lot of snow here and hope to add more in the coming week. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: What is your snow depth??? We had a bit of melting yesterday. I think I’m around 7-8” in mby. But we’ve had snow otg since Dec 23. Pretty impressive considering how warm it’s been so far this winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Ripping pretty good out there. Radar has filled in nicely. I woke up around 3am and looked at the radar and wasn’t impressed. The point is now up to 2-4” this morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just went outside to take the trash out. Already 1.5" down. There must have been some serious rates for a bit between 3-6am. I haven't gone back and looked at the radar history, but Tom mentioned the convective look up this way. Thinking we hit at least 3". Good luck to everyone downstream later today. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Seeing reports online, unofficial, that many places in Central Nebraska received between 1.5-2.5" this morning. My estimate of at least 2" at my house is probably pretty close. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Freezing rain just started here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Morning AFD from DMX suggested winds wouldn't be as strong as thought earlier in the week likely not see G over 50mph. Boone,IA Check that= KBNW 041315Z AUTO 33028G50KT 1/2SM +UP OVC003 M01/M01 A2958 RMK AO2 that's 58mph. And one thing that I never understand with automation-- if the precip is "Unknown"- how is it "heavy"--- ??? 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 A few lightning strikes on this map. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sitting in my classroom this morning on the 2nd floor of our high school, the wind is howling from the north. I have 3 large windows that face north and the snow is blowing off of other buildings. Our school parking lot had small drifts on it again, and the custodian told me they are having a hard time finding new places to put the snow. I mentioned multiple chances of snow in the next week, and she wasn't smiling. They have had a rough job in the last week and half moving snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 PXL_20210204_135911006.mp4 3 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Precip has started here and it was snow right away. lets hope it stays that way! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 It was a rain snow mix on the very south side of CR, it is now all snow and is already sticking. Coming down at a solid clip. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Snowing hard here already and starting to get windy already as well. I stayed home from work. Let the games begin! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 I was expecting rain at first, but it started as some graupel and is quickly changing to snow. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Good to see the reports of a quick changeover to snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Perfect timing. This whole thing started right after sunrise. So this will be an awesome daytime event. Looks like an inch down already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 I would not be surprised , if my area experiences thundersnow w this system. If there is, than, most likely accumulations would lean higher than what is predicted, which is a 3-5inch snowfall for a good portion of SEMI. Winds will also be a factor as well. Snow arrives in the late PM hr and continues through after midnight b4 tapering off shortly thereaafter. This will be an all snowevent btw! NOAA: * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A narrow moderate to heavy band of snow will lift from southwest to northeast across the area this evening. Snow will begin between 4pm and 7pm with locations around the Thumb having the later start time. Heaviest snow will fall between 7pm and midnight where snowfall rates may briefly reach a half to one inch per hour. Snow rates will decrease after midnight. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hmm... my snow has changed back to graupel. I'm also not real impressed with the precip shield to the southwest. In addition, it appears much of the snow may fall while the temp is still mild, which would limit the blowing. We'll see. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1.5' down this am goregeous....hope to end in double digits now. The shoreline in the left side of the pic is .3mi away. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Pounding here. Too band this stuff is only gonna last a couple hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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