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Today's Euro is doing what last night's UK did.  The sw energy gets dragged and sheared by the first northern wave.  It'll probably show something different tomorrow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Snow mounds are growing!!!

I finished with 5.8".  I really wanted to be able to mark down another 6-incher. There was a lot of drifting toward the end and all the blowing snow collected on the driveways and sidewalks.  My

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Just now, Hawkeye said:

Today's Euro is doing what last night's UK did.  The sw energy gets dragged and sheared by the first northern wave.  It'll probably show something different tomorrow.

Even further south. Have to hope for changes back north in the coming days. 

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2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

It's a week out and the GFS is trash past 3 days this year.  I don't buy any of these models yet.  The only thing they agree on is a cold front.   I swear who built and runs these models are juicing up the long range for eye candy.     

I won’t even waste much time looking at models with so much disagreement and fluctuations this far out. The main thing is we know there probably will be a big system somewhere in the Midwest.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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The UK continues to not even move the sw energy into California.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro very similar to CMC through HR 168 other than intensity. Scary similar.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Regardless- the Euro is also back to a Storm for C and S PLains. A good sign.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z Canadian for next weekend. It had nothing on the 12z run so expect more changes. Shown for entertainment purposes only. 😂 image.thumb.png.e1ce153156a68a9bde45de8ad2f647d0.png

Euro's Kuchera is quite similar to CMC for this range.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro has a highly-amplified pattern with a biggie for the central plains to the western lakes next weekend.  The only negative is the initial southwestern energy just shears out along the gulf coast and sweeps the deep moisture away.  The biggie then is moisture-limited, although it's still powerful.

500hv.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The thing with the euro is that system is COLD. Would be very high ratio verbatim. That would be quite something...

sfct.conus.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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This storm has everything going for it to become a monster cutter....whether its a western or lower lakes cutter is TBD.  There are some significant trends in the -NAO that will impact this storms track.  The NAO is forecast to tank right before the storms target period.  This will allow it to slow, dig and potentially become a monster storm across the central U.S.

1.png

 

The 1st lead wave (Thu/Fri) is showing signs of tracking farther south and trending colder with some snow into parts of the Upper MW/GL's on both the Euro/UKIE dropping  several inches.  This will pave the way for the secondary stronger piece to eject out into the Plains/MW and phase with the driving northern stream (PV) out of Canada and potentially become the seasons strongest storm of the year.  Boy, with all the blocking in place and Arctic Air to tap, this has HUGE potential to become a major Blizzard....I usually don't say this quite often, but my gut is telling me that this one is going to have some of the same characteristics the Super Bowl Blitz in 2015 ended up having.

 

I did a quick search and found this link from LOT...https://www.weather.gov/lot/2015_Feb01_Snow

Check out the water vapory animation and you can see the Northern stream driving south out of Canada while the SW energy ejects out of the SW.  Dejavu???  Could this happen again?  I got this feeling something may be cooking.

 

 

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00z EPS trending towards a storm forming near the LRC's hot spot across the TX Panhandle region and cutting up towards the lower lakes/OHV...

1.png

2.png

 

00z Euro Control...

3.png

 

There has been a significant trend towards a cutter per the 00z EPS members.  Good signs going forward.

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LOT's first thoughts for the Super Bowl weekend system...

Quote

If Friday-Friday
night does quiet down under high pressure, there`s a signal for a
possible southern stream system that could affect somewhere in the
Midwest and Great Lakes later Saturday through Sunday, with a
pretty good signal for day 7-8 on the 00z ECMWF ensemble. Lots of
time to monitor that period. Either way, a generally colder than
normal and active pattern should continue into mid February, with
possibility of a sharp cold shot after whatever happens next
weekend.

 

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We may have to split up this storm thread and create another one for the Super Bowl weekend which looks to be the primary threat.  The lead wave fits the dates on this thread for Thu/Fri.  Let's see what the models show today and then make a decision to create another separate thread for next weekend.

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Regardless of what this system does or even if it falls totally apart - the GREAT ones almost always come out in two waves. (Dec 09 etc) and have origins in the Bering Sea. At least mid-winter.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

We may have to split up this storm thread and create another one for the Super Bowl weekend which looks to be the primary threat.  The lead wave fits the dates on this thread for Thu/Fri.  Let's see what the models show today and then make a decision to create another separate thread for next weekend.

Please do that. Local weather offices now are saying not a lot from Thursday in this area but potential for a storm Saturday/Sunday. Thanks for your work @Tom

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Jim Flowers on F-Book post says this is a totally different system and energy than the one just a few days ago , that was lost, and now found by Cmc and Euro. It's interesting that some on his feed disagree, he's doing a video shortly, I believe.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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KC office take on storm next weekend.

Model discrepancies in the extended lead to a low confidence forecast
at this time. Models in fairly good agreement that a fast moving
shortwave trough moving through the northern and central Plains into
the Upper Midwest forcing a cold front through the area. Moisture
with this system will be meager however, forcing will be strong
enough to produce light rain. High Thursday will be in the 40s.
Beyond Thursday, model solutions diverge drastically. The GFS depict
deep, broad upper level troughing across much of the central CONUS
and is very cold with only a passing shot of snow on Saturday.
Conversely, the EC and Canadian models depict more zonal flow on
Friday behind Thursday`s system. However, it develops a trough
digging through the east Rockies on Friday and developing a 700mb
low over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles by Saturday morning. this low
then ejects out across southern Kansas into during the day Saturday
and then along the I-44 corridor Saturday night. This would be a
favorable track for heavy snow across the forecast area.
Consequently, this system will need to be monitored closely as we
move into the work week.

 

 

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22 hours ago, Stacsh said:

That was the best tracking storm ever.  We closed work 2 days in advance because it was almost a certainty of blizzard conditions.  

99 Bliz better than 2011 for most not in Chicago to GR

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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16 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Dud.  Jinx thread 

Storm shown targeting us? 7 days out? Kiss of death this season.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Models are all over the place with this one. Except for the GFS which has consistently shown nothing major. 

Euro and Canadian crap out the week with basically nothing after showing a big storm on the 0z run. Very confusing pattern. 

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The 12z euro took the major storm last night and shifted it to the east coast. Has a minor snow event for some a few days prior. This is the same energy that was originally progged to be a major storm. There has been a trend over the past 2 or 3 model cycles to become slightly more defined with this energy and perhaps spin up something modest before the cold presses in.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Jim Flowers just posted that the pattern is progressive so the trough will not set up for a storm here. Maybe on the east coast. I’ll give it a few more days before throwing in the towel. He has now missed on his prediction for this storm twice. Just saying. 

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Regarding the 7th/8th storm potential, it's still showing up on the EPS but shifted the snow mean a bit more S/SE and now appears to suggest the S MW/Lower Lakes/OHV from MO/IL/IN/OH/MI into the EC.  There is a lot more spread than earlier runs now.

 

12z Euro Control...

1.png

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Per NOAA:

Progressive Pacific energy is expected to push rapidly across the
continuous U.S. late this week. Models indicate a high likelihood
for northern/southern stream phasing which brings plenty of timing
concerns. Current forecast calls for precipitation to begin as snow
and change over to a mix Thursday night. The other item that will
probably garner attention will be strong west winds that develop
Friday in cold advection.
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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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8 hours ago, hlcater said:

The 12z euro took the major storm last night and shifted it to the east coast. Has a minor snow event for some a few days prior. This is the same energy that was originally progged to be a major storm. There has been a trend over the past 2 or 3 model cycles to become slightly more defined with this energy and perhaps spin up something modest before the cold presses in.

But hey, it'd be a March 1993 redux for Tennessee and points Northeastward!

Harrisburg, PA has 44" at the end of the run.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Come on....throw this dog a bone! In purple 4 days out😁

All the models seem to be trending that way for you up north...good luck!

00z Canadian... 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z UKIE...

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

00z Euro...

1.png

 

 

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I'm seeing more ensemble members blowing up this storm as it tracks up towards the GL's.  Are the models digesting the stout -NAO allowing for the SLP to dig and Go Big???  The pattern is ripe for this to happen.

 

 

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For the first time, I'm getting excited for West Michigan.  If the cold pans out, and we have a strong system in the area, the WSW or even WNW winds arctic air intrusion should provide plenty of snow to blanket our area.  

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The GFS has come south a bit more. I'd be happy with a couple-inch refresher.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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