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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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Kristin Clark form KOMO thinks February might still be fun!

"A glance at the long-range GFS model reveals a blast of cold air arriving by mid-February. I have a hunch our chance of seeing more lowland snow isn’t over yet for the season."  Just a hunch though...

Meteorologist Kristin Clark
KOMO 4cast Team

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Quite the rain maker we have going on up here.  1,82" yesterday, and .51" so far today, with kinda rain I should be able to do a swan dive off my back porch into my yard without any risk of injury.

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50 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Kristin Clark form KOMO thinks February might still be fun!

"A glance at the long-range GFS model reveals a blast of cold air arriving by mid-February. I have a hunch our chance of seeing more lowland snow isn’t over yet for the season."  Just a hunch though...

Meteorologist Kristin Clark
KOMO 4cast Team

ok NOW we can bust out our forks!  TV weather person + hunch = fail.

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Alright I am in the correct thread now...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SEA ended January at +1.8 on temp and +3.18 inches for rainfall.

OLM was also +1.8 and +4.38 on precip.

Bellingham was +3.8 and only +0.39 as that area was shadowed during the big rain events in the first half of the month.

Shadowing was not a problem at HQM which finished almost 7 inches above normal for rainfall with 17.27 inches on the month! 

January was warm and wet.   Surprise... surprise.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended January at +1.8 on temps and +3.18 inches for rainfall.

OLM was also +1.8 and +4.38 on precip.

Bellingham was +3.8 and only +0.39 as that area was shadowed during the big rain events in the first half of the month.

Shadowing was not a problem at HQM which finished almost 7 inches above normal for rainfall with 17.27 inches on the month! 

January was wet and warm.   Surprise... surprise.  

Kind of interesting BLI was so much warmer (compared to normal) than areas to the south. I guess that's what happens when you have no arctic events even in the northern areas.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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12z has some incredibly cold air in W. Canada in the mid/long range. Looks like the GOA ridging is not quite amplified enough and a bit to close to the coast. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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After a brief lull where we turned to light rain and it actually got a little breezy...We are now getting dark again with l rain picking up and wind calming. Yay. 

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January ended with a mean temp of 41.7 consisting of a high of 57 degrees on the 14th and a low of 21.7 on the 23rd with 7.65 inches of rain.

Pretty lame month overall outside of the windstorm on 1/13. Hopefully February will deliver more excitement, but not really expecting much.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z has some incredibly cold air in W. Canada in the mid/long range. Looks like the GOA ridging is not quite amplified enough and a bit to close to the coast. 

The pattern shown on the 12Z GFS for late next week is about the same as what the EPS has been showing... and it really does not deliver anything good to WA and OR.  

12Z GFS on top and 00Z EPS on the bottom... same general theme.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3131200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

My sis in NYC says it’s a full on blizzard there with multifoot snowdrifts and everything.

 

Wouldn’t be surprised at this point if central and south Florida get snow before we do, a la Jan 1977.

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A major arctic front SLAMS Western Washington in the long range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z GFS is going to deliver again right at the end of the run... keeps the hope alive with over-aggressive cold in the long range.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_56.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It looks like some people are completely ignoring that this run is somewhat chilly in the mid-range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks like some people are completely ignoring that this run is somewhat chilly in the mid-range. 

They are just being realists

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Outstanding trends today! Stay tuned!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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gfs_T850a_nwus_59.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks like some people are completely ignoring that this run is somewhat chilly in the mid-range. 

Just for the record... it keeps temps in the mid 40s until like day 13.    What are we ignoring in the mid range?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for the record... it keeps temps in the mid 40s until like day 13.    What are we ignoring in the mid range?

You are totally ignoring solidly below normal temps. It’s February, not late December. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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What you are doing Tim, is taking a positive, and turning it into a negative. No reason to do this. This winter has already been bad enough. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are totally ignoring solidly below normal temps. It’s February, not late December. 

Most people are not that concerned about temp stats unless its cold and snowy.    You are and that is great... but it should not be a surprise that people are not too excited about 45 and rain even if its below normal.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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January 2021 Wx in my backyard

AVG: 43.1, Hi: 48.8, Low: 37.6, Max: 58.1, Min: 22.9, Freezes: 4

The stats don't look too great from this past January, and then I look at the previous 3 Januaries with average temperatures of 43.6 (2020), 43.0 (2019), and 44.5 (2018) and this year doesn't look too bad! This was about the fewest freezes I've ever recorded in January so that's something...

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Most people are not that concerned about temp stats unless its cold and snowy.    You are and that is great... but it should not be a surprise that people are excited about 45 and rain even if its below normal.  

I think most people here understand climate. Why sell them short? Reading your posts one would think a Pineapple Express was on the way. Very good chance February starts rather dry, though I am sure the Cedar Lake station will be on its usual record pace. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looking forward to the evening runs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What you are doing Tim, is taking a positive, and turning it into a negative. No reason to do this. This winter has already been bad enough. 

world of warcraft legion GIF

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think most people here understand climate. Why sell them short? Reading your posts one would think a Pineapple Express was on the way. Very good chance February starts rather dry, though I am sure the Cedar Lake station will be on its usual record pace. 

Its been quite dry here for the last 2 weeks.   And the upcoming pattern does not look real wet.

If you expecting tons of excitement over mid 40s and rain then you are going to be disappointed.    The long range of the GFS would generate tons of excitement but we have a long way to go before that becomes reality.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, MossMan said:

Positive Andrew...I’m not sure how to feel about this...

Wait 5 minutes.  😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil, you’ve been rather distant since every one of your forecasts fell into the outhouse.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Andrew... I love your excitement over below normal temps!   But when question other people's excitement then you sort of sound like Jim.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, you’ve been rather distant since every one of your forecasts fell into the outhouse.

Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full.

Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability.

Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew... I love your excitement over below normal temps!   But when question other people's excitement then you sort of sound like Jim.  ;)

No I am questioning people who pretend they don’t understand our climate. Mid 40s is a huge win this time of year in our warming climate. 
 

Fact of the matter is our window of opportunity is now open. We know that with rare exception, we cannot score in January. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full.

Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability.

Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation.

Seems as if Ninas favor the east, as do Ninos, and Neutral ENSO regimes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No I am questioning people who pretend they don’t understand our climate. Mid 40s is a huge win this time of year in our warming climate. 
 

Fact of the matter is our window of opportunity is now open. We know that with rare exception, we cannot score in January. 

People understand our climate very well.   Most people are here in the winter to talk about the chances of cold and snow and that should not be surprising.   That is why there are only 4 of us posting here in the summer.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Times Square web cam...

 

tsquare.png

Looks like we should all move to NYC! Though the rent for a 25sqft studio apartment is probably way more than our mortgage on a 3,000sqft house on 5 acres. Got to make sacrifices for having snow fall on our heads though...

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

People understand our climate very well.   Most people are here in the winter to talk about the chances of cold and snow and that should not be surprising.   That is why there are only 4 of us posting here in the summer.  😀

They should realize our climate will ALWAYS let us down. Once we lower the expectations, then we can achieve true climate nirvana. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Looks like we should all move to NYC! Though the rent for a 25sqft studio apartment is probably way more than our mortgage on a 3,000sqft house on 5 acres. Got to make sacrifices for having snow fall on our heads though...

My buddy pays $2800 for a studio/1bd

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They should realize our climate will ALWAYS let us down. Once we lower the expectations, then we can achieve true climate nirvana. 

Great!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some outstanding trends in the mid-range on the GFSv16. Long range, not so much. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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