Jump to content

February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

Recommended Posts

Kristin Clark form KOMO thinks February might still be fun!

"A glance at the long-range GFS model reveals a blast of cold air arriving by mid-February. I have a hunch our chance of seeing more lowland snow isn’t over yet for the season."  Just a hunch though...

Meteorologist Kristin Clark
KOMO 4cast Team

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quite the rain maker we have going on up here.  1,82" yesterday, and .51" so far today, with kinda rain I should be able to do a swan dive off my back porch into my yard without any risk of injury.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Kristin Clark form KOMO thinks February might still be fun!

"A glance at the long-range GFS model reveals a blast of cold air arriving by mid-February. I have a hunch our chance of seeing more lowland snow isn’t over yet for the season."  Just a hunch though...

Meteorologist Kristin Clark
KOMO 4cast Team

ok NOW we can bust out our forks!  TV weather person + hunch = fail.

  • lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Guest pinned this topic

Alright I am in the correct thread now...

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA ended January at +1.8 on temp and +3.18 inches for rainfall.

OLM was also +1.8 and +4.38 on precip.

Bellingham was +3.8 and only +0.39 as that area was shadowed during the big rain events in the first half of the month.

Shadowing was not a problem at HQM which finished almost 7 inches above normal for rainfall with 17.27 inches on the month! 

January was warm and wet.   Surprise... surprise.  

  • Rain 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended January at +1.8 on temps and +3.18 inches for rainfall.

OLM was also +1.8 and +4.38 on precip.

Bellingham was +3.8 and only +0.39 as that area was shadowed during the big rain events in the first half of the month.

Shadowing was not a problem at HQM which finished almost 7 inches above normal for rainfall with 17.27 inches on the month! 

January was wet and warm.   Surprise... surprise.  

Kind of interesting BLI was so much warmer (compared to normal) than areas to the south. I guess that's what happens when you have no arctic events even in the northern areas.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z has some incredibly cold air in W. Canada in the mid/long range. Looks like the GOA ridging is not quite amplified enough and a bit to close to the coast. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After a brief lull where we turned to light rain and it actually got a little breezy...We are now getting dark again with l rain picking up and wind calming. Yay. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z has some incredibly cold air in W. Canada in the mid/long range. Looks like the GOA ridging is not quite amplified enough and a bit to close to the coast. 

The pattern shown on the 12Z GFS for late next week is about the same as what the EPS has been showing... and it really does not deliver anything good to WA and OR.  

12Z GFS on top and 00Z EPS on the bottom... same general theme.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3131200.png

  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A major arctic front SLAMS Western Washington in the long range. 

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS is going to deliver again right at the end of the run... keeps the hope alive with over-aggressive cold in the long range.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_56.png

  • Like 3
  • lol 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like some people are completely ignoring that this run is somewhat chilly in the mid-range. 

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Outstanding trends today! Stay tuned!

  • Rain 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

gfs_T850a_nwus_59.png

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks like some people are completely ignoring that this run is somewhat chilly in the mid-range. 

Just for the record... it keeps temps in the mid 40s until like day 13.    What are we ignoring in the mid range?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just for the record... it keeps temps in the mid 40s until like day 13.    What are we ignoring in the mid range?

You are totally ignoring solidly below normal temps. It’s February, not late December. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What you are doing Tim, is taking a positive, and turning it into a negative. No reason to do this. This winter has already been bad enough. 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are totally ignoring solidly below normal temps. It’s February, not late December. 

Most people are not that concerned about temp stats unless its cold and snowy.    You are and that is great... but it should not be a surprise that people are not too excited about 45 and rain even if its below normal.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

January 2021 Wx in my backyard

AVG: 43.1, Hi: 48.8, Low: 37.6, Max: 58.1, Min: 22.9, Freezes: 4

The stats don't look too great from this past January, and then I look at the previous 3 Januaries with average temperatures of 43.6 (2020), 43.0 (2019), and 44.5 (2018) and this year doesn't look too bad! This was about the fewest freezes I've ever recorded in January so that's something...

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Most people are not that concerned about temp stats unless its cold and snowy.    You are and that is great... but it should not be a surprise that people are excited about 45 and rain even if its below normal.  

I think most people here understand climate. Why sell them short? Reading your posts one would think a Pineapple Express was on the way. Very good chance February starts rather dry, though I am sure the Cedar Lake station will be on its usual record pace. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking forward to the evening runs. 

  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What you are doing Tim, is taking a positive, and turning it into a negative. No reason to do this. This winter has already been bad enough. 

world of warcraft legion GIF

  • Like 5
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think most people here understand climate. Why sell them short? Reading your posts one would think a Pineapple Express was on the way. Very good chance February starts rather dry, though I am sure the Cedar Lake station will be on its usual record pace. 

Its been quite dry here for the last 2 weeks.   And the upcoming pattern does not look real wet.

If you expecting tons of excitement over mid 40s and rain then you are going to be disappointed.    The long range of the GFS would generate tons of excitement but we have a long way to go before that becomes reality.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sis sent me this video. Hard to see but you can make out the sheets of blowing snow and hear the wind.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phil, you’ve been rather distant since every one of your forecasts fell into the outhouse.

  • Excited 1
  • Confused 1
  • Popcorn 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Andrew... I love your excitement over below normal temps!   But when question other people's excitement then you sort of sound like Jim.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, you’ve been rather distant since every one of your forecasts fell into the outhouse.

Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full.

Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability.

Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 372

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

    5. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

×
×
  • Create New...