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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew... I love your excitement over below normal temps!   But when question other people's excitement then you sort of sound like Jim.  ;)

No I am questioning people who pretend they don’t understand our climate. Mid 40s is a huge win this time of year in our warming climate. 
 

Fact of the matter is our window of opportunity is now open. We know that with rare exception, we cannot score in January. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full.

Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability.

Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation.

Seems as if Ninas favor the east, as do Ninos, and Neutral ENSO regimes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No I am questioning people who pretend they don’t understand our climate. Mid 40s is a huge win this time of year in our warming climate. 
 

Fact of the matter is our window of opportunity is now open. We know that with rare exception, we cannot score in January. 

People understand our climate very well.   Most people are here in the winter to talk about the chances of cold and snow and that should not be surprising.   That is why there are only 4 of us posting here in the summer.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Times Square web cam...

 

tsquare.png

Looks like we should all move to NYC! Though the rent for a 25sqft studio apartment is probably way more than our mortgage on a 3,000sqft house on 5 acres. Got to make sacrifices for having snow fall on our heads though...

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

People understand our climate very well.   Most people are here in the winter to talk about the chances of cold and snow and that should not be surprising.   That is why there are only 4 of us posting here in the summer.  😀

They should realize our climate will ALWAYS let us down. Once we lower the expectations, then we can achieve true climate nirvana. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Looks like we should all move to NYC! Though the rent for a 25sqft studio apartment is probably way more than our mortgage on a 3,000sqft house on 5 acres. Got to make sacrifices for having snow fall on our heads though...

My buddy pays $2800 for a studio/1bd

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They should realize our climate will ALWAYS let us down. Once we lower the expectations, then we can achieve true climate nirvana. 

Great!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some outstanding trends in the mid-range on the GFSv16. Long range, not so much. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe Brady and Mahomes will provide the magic.

So proud of what Tom has been able to accomplish this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Let's keep the momentum going with the EURO! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some outstanding trends in the mid-range on the GFSv16. Long range, not so much. 

Mixed emotions. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So proud of what Tom has been able to accomplish this year. 

I have come around on him... he won me over. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems as if Ninas favor the east, as do Ninos, and Neutral ENSO regimes. 

It’s been a warmer than average winter here with below average snowfall so I don’t know what ur talking about.

FWIW there’s not a substantial correlation between ENSO & DJF temps here. It’s mostly for snowfall/storm track.

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Perhaps we can still have a late February miracle like 2011 or 2018. Both were absolutely lovely with cold/snow/duration. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No Super Bowl magic this year. 😞

I'm sure there will be for Lord Brady.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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28 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

It looks like we start February with a 50 degree day. We had a 50 degree day in both January and December. It's been such a harsh winter.

Your comments sound so western Washington that I have to keep reminding myself that you are talking from the Spokane area. 🙄

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

Finished January with 7.47", only 8 freezes which is probably a record low number for the 30 years I've been tracking.  Lowest temp was only 23, highest was 53 with two days being above 50.  Looking forward to a cold February.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one.  I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that.  Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower.  That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s been a warmer than average winter here with below average snowfall so I don’t know what ur talking about.

FWIW there’s not a substantial correlation between ENSO & DJF temps here. It’s mostly for snowfall/storm track.

One thing I've noticed is that Nina winters where the East gets hit hard (whether it's just a few short lived big events or an actual cold winter) usually deliver the goods here also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS ensemble has one period where  a third of the members are -9 or lower on the 850s.  Pretty good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing I've noticed is that Nina winters where the East gets hit hard (whether it's just a few short lived big events or an actual cold winter) usually deliver the goods here also.

Could be. Though there is 1999/00, which was a warm winter here (like this one) but had 2 weeks of craziness in the middle.

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The 12Z ECMWF shows its basically dry on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.     Maybe a nice weekend as a reward for those who had rain all of this past weekend.     I am talking to you Randy!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The PV that's progged to drop into the upper Midwest and the NE looks really cold.  I hope our turn is next.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ECMWF sure has changed over the last couple days.

Top image is from the 12Z run on Saturday morning... and the bottom image is the new 12Z run today for the same time. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (4).png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be. Though there is 1999/00, which was a warm winter here (like this one) but had 2 weeks of craziness in the middle.

Yeah...that was a horrible flop here but there was a close call in January.  All in all the 1998 - 2001 La Nina was horrific for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF shows its basically dry on Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.     Maybe a nice weekend as a reward for those who had rain all of this past weekend.     I am talking to you Randy!  

Add in next Monday as well.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF looks great at day 8.  Big GOA block and a Kona low.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This whole thing may go down as a fumble on the 5 yard line followed by miraculous interception and touch down on the next play.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...that was a horrible flop here but there was a close call in January.  All in all the 1998 - 2001 La Nina was horrific for us.

That was a weird one. Seems the excessively strong multiyear niñas like 1974-76 and 1998-2001 tend to be less impressive in the cold department out there.

I suppose 1949/50 was a strong niña but it didn’t span multiple years at that amplitude.

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High amp block in the sweet spot at day 9.  It's going to be interesting to see how the NAO block and PNA block end up interacting during week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This whole thing may go down as a fumble on the 5 yard line followed by miraculous interception and touch down on the next play.

I like that analogy. I would like that result. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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