Jump to content

February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That was a weird one. Seems the excessively strong multiyear niñas like 1974-76 and 1998-2001 tend to be less impressive in the cold department out there.

I suppose 1949/50 was a strong niña but it didn’t span multiple years at that amplitude.

The one multi year Nina that really panned out for us 1954 - 1956.  The 1950s were ridiculous for us.  Cold, cold, and more cold.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF looks great at day 8.  Big GOA block and a Kona low.

FWIW 12z is much warmer here vs 00z thanks to the nor’easter (latent heat + advection off Atlantic).

Haven’t experienced an “all snow” event in two years..really hoping for a powder bomb before swamp season rears it’s ugly head.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF has a decent 500mb pattern... but the 850mb temps are pretty bland.    We have seen this many times recently.  

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF is really nice at day 10.  Now we just need to keep the positive trend going.  We're fortunate to have another realistic stab at this.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The one multi year Nina that really panned out for us 1954 - 1956.  The 1950s were ridiculous for us.  Cold, cold, and more cold.

That wasn’t a multiyear strong niña, right? IIRC only 1955/56 was strong.

The 1974-76 and 1998-2001 cycles had multiple strong niña episodes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF has a decent 500mb pattern... but the 850mb temps are pretty bland.    We have seen this many times recently.  

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11 (1).png

As I say getting another stab at the GOA block is a big deal.  Without that we have nothing. The details will sort themselves out.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

In fact... the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 (above) looks very similar to day 2 on Wednesday.

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_3.png

Well it might snow here tomorrow night. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say getting another stab at the GOA block is a big deal.  Without that we have nothing. The details will sort themselves out.

Yes... the pattern remains favorable for a chances.   We just have a long history of fumbling the ball on the 5-yard line.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one.  I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that.  Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower.  That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes.

You are probably correct.  I'll have to go check on the January freezes but I know it's gotta be in the bottom 2 or 3 over that span anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Phil said:

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

Seems almost inevitable.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY.  Could end up being quite a string if we get through today.  Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY.  Could end up being quite a string if we get through today.  Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards.

North Bend broke their streak on Saturday with 51 and then it was 55 yesterday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... the pattern remains favorable for a chances.   We just have a long history of fumbling the ball on the 5-yard line.  

No doubt about that.  The one thing that argues for some legit cold if the GOA block happens is the fact all of the other indices will be tanked as well.  Hard to not score some continental cold with that combo.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

North Bend broke their streak on Saturday with 51 and then it was 55 yesterday.

The winds stayed really light here and I think we had more wet bulb effect cooling yesterday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one.  I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that.  Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower.  That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes.

I just checked and 2006 had only one freeze here.  So 2021 is a pretty close 2nd for freezing futility.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Acer said:

Your comments sound so western Washington that I have to keep reminding myself that you are talking from the Spokane area. 🙄

I remember February 1989. We had a high of -4f with winds gusting to 40 mph. I remember dropping to -24f in 1996. Coincidentally, both of those years were la niña years.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY.  Could end up being quite a string if we get through today.  Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards.

:( Just so bummed about this dud of a winter thus far. For me, this actually summarizes how awful (not impressive) it's been. Persistent cold rain is the absolute worst case scenario in my opinion...though I suppose skiers may disagree. If we can't get cold/snow, please bring on the warmth and boating season!

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full.

Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability.

Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation.

Do you think the PNW has another chance at an arctic blast this month or have we run out of time in your mind?

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. 

We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. 

Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow last week?

  • Like 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Spring of 17 and 18’ were both fairly mild after March, so not a slam dunk we see a cool spring. 

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet. :)

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet. :)

The crappy western Wa weather followed you. 😞

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...