snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: That was a weird one. Seems the excessively strong multiyear niñas like 1974-76 and 1998-2001 tend to be less impressive in the cold department out there. I suppose 1949/50 was a strong niña but it didn’t span multiple years at that amplitude. The one multi year Nina that really panned out for us 1954 - 1956. The 1950s were ridiculous for us. Cold, cold, and more cold. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: ECMWF looks great at day 8. Big GOA block and a Kona low. FWIW 12z is much warmer here vs 00z thanks to the nor’easter (latent heat + advection off Atlantic). Haven’t experienced an “all snow” event in two years..really hoping for a powder bomb before swamp season rears it’s ugly head. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12Z ECMWF has a decent 500mb pattern... but the 850mb temps are pretty bland. We have seen this many times recently. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 ECMWF is really nice at day 10. Now we just need to keep the positive trend going. We're fortunate to have another realistic stab at this. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 In fact... the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 (above) looks very similar to day 2 on Wednesday. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The one multi year Nina that really panned out for us 1954 - 1956. The 1950s were ridiculous for us. Cold, cold, and more cold. That wasn’t a multiyear strong niña, right? IIRC only 1955/56 was strong. The 1974-76 and 1998-2001 cycles had multiple strong niña episodes. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF has a decent 500mb pattern... but the 850mb temps are pretty bland. We have seen this many times recently. As I say getting another stab at the GOA block is a big deal. Without that we have nothing. The details will sort themselves out. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: In fact... the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 (above) looks very similar to day 2 on Wednesday. Well it might snow here tomorrow night. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: As I say getting another stab at the GOA block is a big deal. Without that we have nothing. The details will sort themselves out. Yes... the pattern remains favorable for a chances. We just have a long history of fumbling the ball on the 5-yard line. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Yes... the pattern remains favorable for a chances. We just have a long history of fumbling the ball on the 5-yard line. More like throwing picks on the one yard line 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one. I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that. Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower. That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes. You are probably correct. I'll have to go check on the January freezes but I know it's gotta be in the bottom 2 or 3 over that span anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Phil said: I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. Seems almost inevitable. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY. Could end up being quite a string if we get through today. Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 In other news... the Nina is looking a weaker right now. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY. Could end up being quite a string if we get through today. Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards. North Bend broke their streak on Saturday with 51 and then it was 55 yesterday. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yes... the pattern remains favorable for a chances. We just have a long history of fumbling the ball on the 5-yard line. No doubt about that. The one thing that argues for some legit cold if the GOA block happens is the fact all of the other indices will be tanked as well. Hard to not score some continental cold with that combo. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: North Bend broke their streak on Saturday with 51 and then it was 55 yesterday. The winds stayed really light here and I think we had more wet bulb effect cooling yesterday. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: I'd be surprised if there wasn't a worse one. I think I remember a Jan with only 2 or something like that. Amazingly there was a year in the 1930s where the city of Seattle only had one low of 32 or lower. That was one messed up decade, with absolutely crazy extremes. I just checked and 2006 had only one freeze here. So 2021 is a pretty close 2nd for freezing futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12Z EPS at day 10... 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Acer said: Your comments sound so western Washington that I have to keep reminding myself that you are talking from the Spokane area. I remember February 1989. We had a high of -4f with winds gusting to 40 mph. I remember dropping to -24f in 1996. Coincidentally, both of those years were la niña years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khoine Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Notches hunches tacos warm only two lows below freezing no SE ridge never less than 300 hours out for front door back door Arctic air kind of winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 RIP Dustin Diamond. 4 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at day 10... The 500mb pattern looks a bit better than what temps show. It also continues to improve through day 13.5 (where it's currently at). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 It's 50f currently. This reminds me so much of 1999-2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: If it doesn't hit 50 today that will make 17 days in a row without a high above 48 IMBY. Could end up being quite a string if we get through today. Small victory I know, but it's actually somewhat impressive by recent standards. Just so bummed about this dud of a winter thus far. For me, this actually summarizes how awful (not impressive) it's been. Persistent cold rain is the absolute worst case scenario in my opinion...though I suppose skiers may disagree. If we can't get cold/snow, please bring on the warmth and boating season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: RIP Dustin Diamond. Just saw that! So sad....wasn’t feeling well in January so went to doctor only to find out he had cancer. Happened so quick...scary 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 RIP Screech!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: Bro I’ve been tracking a nor’easter and spring semester started last week. My hands = full. Certainly not my best performance this winter, but not the worst either. NH progression evolved similar enough to what I expected post-SSW but details were off. Probably thanks to the stubborn low pass IO component in January relative to MJO/sub seasonal variability. Can’t deny I thought the early February arctic blast would occur in the West, not the Midwest/East. But that’s always a higher risk forecast because it doesn’t take much to change that equation. Do you think the PNW has another chance at an arctic blast this month or have we run out of time in your mind? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 43 minutes ago, Phil said: I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 It is 59 degrees and breezy. It should start raining soon too. NWS says rain/snow on Wednesday let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: We are going to need another Miracle March to save us like in 2018, 2020. Seems like the Pacific HP ridge doesn't want to budge until March now days. We haven't had a big Nov/Dec storm cycle since 2012. Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow last week? 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 59 minutes ago, Phil said: I have a feeling spring might be very chilly out there. Haven’t really dug into things yet, it’s more of a hunch. Probably because it's a Nina. Then again, it really hasn't behaved like a typical one, so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Didn't you get like 4 feet of snow last week? That was our only "Storm" of the winter to come off of the Pacific so far. Put us at 50% of average for the date 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 January finished as 10th least snowfall going back to 18xx. A letdown for La Niña. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Spring of 17 and 18’ were both fairly mild after March, so not a slam dunk we see a cool spring. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 32 years ago this morning we all almost DIED at the bus stop. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet. 1 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 What is the latest discussion on the Polar Vortex split? I am sure I am late to the party, just curious if this still look viable? My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2021 Report Share Posted February 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said: Talking to the local here this has been one of the warmest winters in many years here. Our snowfall for January was minor overall and melted quickly (in a day in most cases) here in the Valley. I really enjoyed it, but afternoon temps have been pretty warm. My good buddy who has lived here for 15 years says this is not normal to have zero snow on the ground this time of year and temps consistently in the upper 40's... I am honestly okay with it, love the snow we have gotten, and winter is not over, yet. The crappy western Wa weather followed you. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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