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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Just flipping channels and came across Autopsy on REELZ...Luther Vandross had a cerebral hemorrhage...BUT that didn’t kill him! Still have about 15mins before I will know what actually did. 

I can save you that 15 minutes so you can focus on model riding.  Last, I think, you were not onboard.

He died of a heart attack.

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

This run was quite close to getting modified arctic air into Eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. Minor adjustments and things change quickly.

The 500mb pattern late next week does not look like it be that cold... something tells me this is the GFS being Goofus.

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well not a good trend, but great to have the ICON on board. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Early spring for the east coast.

Verbatim that’s a cold pattern here, but I’m sure the flip to spring will be fast and hard, as it is almost every year.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 500mb pattern late next week does not look like it be that cold... something tells me this is the GFS being Goofus.

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

Considering our luck lately it’s likely the warmest most dull solution will verify.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I know some of you will roll your eyes, but I really think this run is an outlier. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know some of you will roll your eyes, but I really think this run is an outlier. 

Ensembles will be interesting. Seems like Matt’s favorite word of 2021 is in play here...VOLATILITY! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Gem is heading in a tolerable direction. 

 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z run on top... 00Z run on the bottom.  

gfs_z500a_us_56.png

gfs_z500a_us_55.png

The situation is in flux right now. A lot of genius level thinking going on at GFS headquarters on Space Mountain. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We should be at peace with the situation. It is out of our hands, but I still have faith, we will see better days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Pick out whatever frames of the model you want to troll with 🙄

Yeah... and I might just be doing the opposite on the 12Z run.    Some serious volatility in the models right now which was the point.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Once late march April is here some nice spring weather is ok as long as it not blow torching summer temps bad enough we get that in the summer.

If I had my choice it would be snowing through May and cold/rainy all summer long. Any rational person would agree with me. 😉

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We should be at peace with the situation. It is out of our hands, but I still have faith, we will see better days. 

I like this Andrew better.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... and I might just be doing the opposite on the 12Z run.    Some serious volatility in the models right now which was the point.

Nobody here is going to believe that. The point was for you to attempt to diminish any optimism that came out of the 00z run.

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OT for thread but this is now one of the longest duration events in memory for me. Winter precip has been going nonstop for almost 48hrs. 

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12 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Nobody here is going to believe that. The point was for you to attempt to diminish any optimism that came out of the 00z run.

OK.  😀

I also made some "good" posts today that were well received... even about the 18Z run.      Take the good and the bad... that's life! 

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like the 18Z run did the same thing yesterday... maybe its on to something?  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Nobody here is going to believe that. The point was for you to attempt to diminish any optimism that came out of the 00z run.

Believe it or not, Tim still hasn't quite managed to create a machine controlling whether the model run is good or not, let alone the actual weather.

In this case the run wasn't very good.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

OT for thread but this is now one of the longest duration events in memory for me. Winter precip has been going nonstop for almost 48hrs. 

Yeah... everything seems to be stuck right now.   I am trying to remember a stationary band of rain like the one that has been over western WA and OR since about last Thursday.     That trough offshore has barely moved in 5 days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Believe it or not, Tim still hasn't quite managed to create a machine controlling whether the model run is good or not, let alone the actual weather.

In this case the run wasn't very good.

 

Whether or not this run was good or not depends on what you're looking at. Possibility for a gradual vs abrupt change in the models regarding what will happen in the first few weeks of February.

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49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 500mb pattern late next week does not look like it be that cold... something tells me this is the GFS being Goofus.

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

Surprisingly... the 00Z GEFS looks very similar to the GFS at the same time.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3001600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So much for the rain being done  up here, just hit 1", 2.82" for the system, 7.89" for the year.

I was just thinking about that when I checked the radar... the band moved east for a little while and then comes right back again.

Only .18 here today and its not even raining now.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

 

Whether or not this run was good or not depends on what you're looking at. Possibility for a gradual vs abrupt change in the models regarding what will happen in the first few weeks of February.

There's always the possibility for a change in the models. Analyzing that run in a straightforward or objective context would reveal that it was largely mild and poor for snow chances in the region. A "dud run". It need not be controversial to point that out.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEFS at 240 hours...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3088000 (1).png

That purple monster up in Alaska will be right over Wa state on the next run! 

 

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Randy come up to twisp...I’ve got a 3 mile driveway that needs plowing every week with a JD6410

On my way! Might take me a week to get there however. 

6209DFE7-8344-4075-8253-2CA2E7391F5B.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There's always the possibility for a change in the models. Analyzing that run in a straightforward or objective context would reveal that it was largely mild and poor for snow chances in the region. A "dud run". It need not be controversial to point that out.

I suppose if it doesn't show a stalled out snow storm over the PNW with crashing 500mb heights then it's a dud run.

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