February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

HEAVY RAIN!

[RentonHill]

Just now, Deweydog said:

HEAVY RAIN!

CONFLICTING REPORTS

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

First ever 39 degree blizzard for me!! 

Too bad it's all we really have to look forward to the next 7 days or more.......I am still holding out for a snowy box of chocolates.

[Deweydog]

I THINK WE SHOULD GO TO ALL CAPS FOR THE REST OF THE WINTER.

[MossMan]

YES I AGREE!! 

[RentonHill]

Parker wants to know how long until summer. I told him the sun angles are almost there brother

[TheNewCulverJosh]

VALENTINE'S DAY SNOWSTORM IS HAPPENING!!!!!!!

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Too bad it's all we really have to look forward to the next 7 days or more.......I am still holding out for a snowy box of chocolates.

I’m only quoting this post so Dolt can see it! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Was all snow here for about 15 minutes. Temp is 34 degrees.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Pretty vigorous little trough moving in.  Central Oregon Daily News is calling for 3-4 inches in Bend, 0-1 for Redmond up through Culver....Santiam Pass is forecast to get over 12".  

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.42” on the day. Quite a few bands of heavy rain moving through today. Didn’t see any snowflakes today but wouldn’t be surprised if we did later on under any heavy showers. 

[High Desert Mat?]

3 hours ago, Jesse said:

It can be frustrating. There was a point where I was pretty “onboard” with something at least fairly interesting for the last half of January.

Was nice to see some lowland spots get snow on the 26th but overall the most the big pattern change did was keep us from scoring another top tier warm month. Which was great and all but it would have been fun to get a little more out of a -PNA period directly following some major warm first half of the winter karma. 

Plus a La Niña with a -QBO. All the while the teleconnections were mostly negative as well. I hardly believe in all of that stuff considering some of our greatest winters have come from the not so great indicators. Is what it is, but I firmly believe that, “ those winters can’t happen anymore” is pure bull$hit. Some of our recent winters have proved that. 
 

Expectations are too high around here sometimes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Pretty vigorous little trough moving in.  Central Oregon Daily News is calling for 3-4 inches in Bend, 0-1 for Redmond up through Culver....Santiam Pass is forecast to get over 12".  

 

Central Oregon Daily News?

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Central Oregon Daily News?

Just one of the news stations here.  

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Plus a La Niña with a -QBO. All the while the teleconnections were mostly negative as well. I hardly believe in all of that stuff considering some of our greatest winters have come from the not so great indicators. Is what it is, but I firmly believe that, “ those winters can’t happen anymore” is pure bull$hit. Some of our recent winters have proved that. 
 

Expectations are too high around here sometimes. 

The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year.    Does not seem to mean much though.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year.    Does not seem to mean much though.

I'm really hoping for a neutral winter next year.  

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year.    Does not seem to mean much though.

And everyone will get super excited when we get a -PNA big cold snap in October just to have go and remain + for the majority of the rest of the winter! 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And everyone will get super excited when we get a -PNA big cold snap in October just to have go and remain + for the majority of the rest of the winter! 

At least most members are 0 or negative for the next 7-10 days.  And only a couple members are out to lunch both directions.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And everyone will get super excited when we get a -PNA big cold snap in October just to have go and remain + for the majority of the rest of the winter! 

Or b*tch and moan when we get one because they will remember this year and assume it means our winter is now doomed. Of course both takes would be wrong.

[Dave]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The only guarantee on here is that next October everything will be lined up perfectly again... like it is literally every year.    Does not seem to mean much though.

After the last few years of reading most of the posts in this forum and the analysis that has gone on, I've reached the conclusion that long range forecasts are a myth. They just don't work, period. No one can tell you with any degree of accuracy other than predicting climo what might happen to finish off this "winter", spring, next winter, etc. It is pretty much pointless and is just a guess. Sometimes these guesses work out, just like the Farmer's Almanac. Perhaps that will change someday with improved monitoring, models, and computing, but we are nowhere near that point at the moment. I suppose it is still something we will guess at and talk about and I will be here for that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Or b*tch and moan when we get one because they will remember this year and assume it means our winter is now doomed. Of course both takes would be wrong.

Someday you will recognize the prophecy in TWL's words. 

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someday you will recognize the prophecy in TWL's words. 

Enjoy the prophet while we still have him. He's been threatening to take his wisdom, talents, and incredible prophecies to the heavens of Indiana sometime soon. You never know what you have until it is gone.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

THE RAIN HAS STOPPED AFTER 4 or so straight days! 
Currently 38 degrees.

.53” on the day, 1.29” for the month, 9.01” for the year. 

Same up here, it's pretty crazy, I saw some strange blue colored clouds off to the west about an hour before sunset.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

The hype generated between El Nino and La Nina is just plain ridiculous if you look at the statistics.  

Like Mat said.  Look at all of the "prime" conditions this winter has had since October.  And it's a dud..........so far.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

The hype generated between El Nino and La Nina is just plain ridiculous if you look at the statistics.  

Like Mat said.  Look at all of the "prime" conditions this winter has had since October.  And it's a dud..........so far.

Seems like weak El Niño’s...neutral or weak La Niñas have been pretty good. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Seems like weak El Niño’s...neutral or weak La Niñas have been pretty good. 

I believe even strong El Ninos have more potential than strong La Ninas.  Without that Pacific shut off, it is a lot of cold rain and milder 850 temps.  At least with a strong El Nino we know that Northern Jet will at some point be pumped up to the Yukon.

[bainbridgekid]

4 hours ago, dolt said:

After the last few years of reading most of the posts in this forum and the analysis that has gone on, I've reached the conclusion that long range forecasts are a myth. They just don't work, period. No one can tell you with any degree of accuracy other than predicting climo what might happen to finish off this "winter", spring, next winter, etc. It is pretty much pointless and is just a guess. Sometimes these guesses work out, just like the Farmer's Almanac. Perhaps that will change someday with improved monitoring, models, and computing, but we are nowhere near that point at the moment. I suppose it is still something we will guess at and talk about and I will be here for that.

I agree. I have never seen evidence of any degree of concistent accuracy or skill in seasonal forecasts. I just don't think it's possible to be more than ~55% confident in anything at that range.

I think there are just too many factors and unknowns which only exponentially grow the further out a forecast is. Even if you nail down 3 or 4 aspects of a prediction, there will always be others which can throw the entire forecast off.

This is even more true with Winter forecasts around here because a 1-week anomalous arctic event can make or break our Winter regardless of what happens the rest of the time. 

 

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I believe even strong El Ninos have more potential than strong La Ninas.  Without that Pacific shut off, it is a lot of cold rain and mild temps.  At least with a strong El Nino we know that Northern Jet will at some point be pumped up to the Yukon.

Strong niño Decembers are pretty good. 2015 was a Norman Rockwell Christmas around here. 

[OysterPrintout]

5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I believe even strong El Ninos have more potential than strong La Ninas.  Without that Pacific shut off, it is a lot of cold rain and milder 850 temps.  At least with a strong El Nino we know that Northern Jet will at some point be pumped up to the Yukon.

Have you checked the math on this?

[TheNewCulverJosh]

3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Strong niño Decembers are pretty good. 2015 was a Norman Rockwell Christmas around here. 

I remember that one, even though I was in the banana belt of Gladstone at the time.  Was very wet, with snow mixed quite often.  Surely you scored big over there.

[Jesse]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someday you will recognize the prophecy in TWL's words. 

Facts are such meanies.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Have you checked the math on this?

Nope, haven't checked any of it, just pure speculation.  Just seems like every year we get all hyped up for a moderate or strong La Nina that doesn't deliver.  Or if it does it still isn't good enough.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Pivotal - (02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Pivotal - (02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP.

 

Big runs incoming

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Big runs incoming

I look forward to it.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, rising heights further west of the main ridge

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm, rising heights further west of the main ridge

Cutoff low backing off as well???

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 That cut-off west of the base of the ridge is not helping anything.

(Past 4 runs)