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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Shannon seems to think winter is doomed. And she got daffodils/other bloomies to prove it. 
 

 

I can advocate for her as our flowers are in late March mode.  You have to have some keen sense of plants to understand but city folks like most on here won't sadly. 

Planters are either enthusiastic for the early spring or very scared 'as they should be' since generally early warmth greatly increases the odds of a severe cold wave in April. This could easily wipe it all out in just a few hours then.

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Shannon seems to think winter is doomed. And she got daffodils/other bloomies to prove it. 
 

 

It's been a very warm Winter so makes sense they'd be blooming ahead of schedule. No predictive value there though.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Very blustery, gusts up to 35mph. Not too shabby. 41F with light rain.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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45 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Woke up to big wet flakes here this morning about 30 minutes ago in the West Hills of Portland, nothing sticking though, 34.7 degrees.

It was nearly all snow around up by Sylvan on 26 on my way to work this morning.

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1 minute ago, umadbro said:

It was nearly all snow around up by Sylvan on 26 on my way to work this morning.

Yep same here, another degree or two colder and it could have been an interesting morning. I am just slightly up the hill above Sylvan.

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Woke up around 2am with about 1" on the ground and heavy snow falling. Had 3" by 4a, ended up with 3.5". 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like 36F and cloudy this morning.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Memories...Nothing more than Memories...

Day 1 of like 44 straight FB memories of snow that will be popping up. Got way more than a foot! 

21851DA4-405D-4070-B817-3BD295131DAA.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS looks to be making a move towards the Euro through D3. Block is slightly more west allowing the downstream trough to follow suit. 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2645200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2645200-1.png

12Z GFS is vastly different than its 00Z run by next Monday.    Looks ripe for potential on this run.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2807200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2807200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just checked the 00Z EPS... it actually shows a progression like the 12Z GFS is showing.    But it was an ugly run overall.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1612310400-1612310400-1613606400-20.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked the 00Z EPS... it actually shows a progression like the 12Z GFS is showing.    But it was an ugly run overall.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1612310400-1612310400-1613606400-20.gif

Phew that's a relief. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the 12Z GFS delivers some chilly air early next week and maybe a little snow in places as it comes around to the ECMWF and EPS solution... but that also means it won't be nearly as good as previous runs later on.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 12Z GFS delivers some chilly air early next week and maybe a little snow in places as it comes around to the ECMWF and EPS solution... but that also means it won't be nearly as good as previous runs later on.  

So our choice is immediate returns or false hope of a good future. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This run is so different later next week.   Looks much more like what the ECMWF was showing last night.

Compare the 12Z GFS on top to the 00Z GFS on the bottom... complete flip. 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So our choice is immediate returns or false hope of a good future. 

Yeah... this is true.   Always better to have improvements in the shorter term.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is true.   Always better to have improvements in the shorter term.

EURO will probably flip now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Probably should shut the place down.

Until December 2021...It’s going to Rock our worlds! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

You might get snow on Monday!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO will probably flip now. 

Yeah... would not surprise me.   

But the GFS did completely cave to the ECMWF this morning.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For a split second I thought there might have been some positive vibes with the posts...Luckily Tim is here to make sure I keep with my NOT ONBOARD and this winter is over mindset. 
Can’t wait to go Jetsking! 

I was actually pretty hopeful about where the 12Z GFS was going when it was out to about 96 hours... but then it turned into this by day 10.     

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3217600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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