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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

That would be seasonably cool for sure!

It's definitely a helluva lot better than this!

ens_image.php?geoid=135643&var=201&run=6

  • Like 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 year ago today we had 1/2” of snow. 2 years ago today we had 1” of snow and that was the start of the great run of February 2019. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Big time EUROPPEEEN run coming up soon! 

This improvement could still easily go further.  Hopefully it will improve to the point where the longer range will change again.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It's definitely a helluva lot better than this!

ens_image.php?geoid=135643&var=201&run=6

Wow, massive improvement. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

She loves the snow. I heard her going in and out all night once it started. Just like me. 

We're definitely gonna need more pictures as she grows pup. 

  • Like 3

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is a great point with the current model instability.  I expect the idea for week two will completely change over the next few runs.

Keep in mind this could continue to trend further west and get much better. This is the same time period that looked really good about a week ago.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Keep in mind this could continue to trend further west and get much better. This is the same time period that looked really good about a week ago.

What a wacky, winding road this has been.

 

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Euro looks good at day 3.  The block is a slightly more top heavy and the Hawaiian low is better positioned and stronger.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No doubt the Euro is going to be cold.  Day 4 is nicely poised.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Euro looks good at day 3.  The block is a slightly more top heavy and the Hawaiian low is better positioned and stronger.

 

Actually warmer on Saturday than the 00Z run though...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-2656000 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... would not surprise me.   

But the GFS did completely cave to the ECMWF this morning.

That original goofus vs Euro battle..turns out Euro was closer after all. Shocker. 😱

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Shift the convergence snow north by 1 county!! Boom! 

I would sure like to see my area be included in future runs.  Details are still shaky at best.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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BC has a boat of cold air on the day 4 Euro.  Certainly way colder than earlier runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I think the ECMWF might be heading towards something good... the battle between the block and that low up north looks more favorable Sunday than the 00Z run.  

  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Day 5 has bitter cold air almost to the border.  It's not even close to a biff on this run.  The block is way better positioned.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely a bit better from a 500mb perspective. 

2021-02-03 10_22_21-Window.png

A BIG bit!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

850s also a fair amount better, especially with the cold air supply in BC.

But don't worry, Tim will be following up with a surface temp map showing highs in the mid 40s shortly!

2021-02-03 10_23_25-Window.png

Surface temps are pretty important.    Have not seen Monday yet but its likely to be colder.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

850s also quite a bit better, especially with the cold air supply in BC.

But don't worry, Tim will be following up with a surface temp map showing highs in the mid 40s shortly!

2021-02-03 10_23_25-Window.png

To be fair he just did post this might be going somewhere good.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The weenies in the NE have to be really pissed at this run.  The cold is way further west.

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  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The weenies in the NE have to be really pissed at this run.  The cold is way further west.

Good, they have enough!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

A little lowland snow in spots next Sunday night/Monday morning...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-2807200.png

Little snow here. I like.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just slightly more dig back at day 6 and we get some serious cold in here.  As it is 850s drop to -10 over SEA on this run.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

-10 850mb temps to Seattle and -9 to PDX at hour 144 on the Euro.

Just minor tweaks away from real Arctic air dropping in.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

I won’t get above 32. 

It also shows it being sunny that day... it might be tough to stay below 32 with sunshine in February. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Tuesday...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-2915200 (1).png

Even if we had super cold 850s above us, it would take a miracle for a sunny day to have high temps not be well above frreezing, no? So we shouldnt necessarily be discouraged by these max temps since if there were to be a storm coming in, or even cloud cover, we could expect the majority of the day to be closer to freezing? What is the usual gap between 850 and surface temps? 

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Big improvement on day 7 vs yesterday's day 8.  We're going the right way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It also shows it being sunny that day... it might be tough to stay below 32 with sunshine in February. 

Models will trend colder...And my place stays cool especially with snowcover. 
Im going for the gusto here!!! Do or die (or go jetsking, I’m living to 125yrs old) Let’s do this!! 

  • Like 4

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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