February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Models will trend colder...And my place stays cool especially with snowcover. 
Im going for the gusto here!!! Do or die!! Let’s do this!! 

Sounds good!  

[RentonHill]

absolutely gorgeous day in the methow

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Even if we had super cold 850s above us, it would take a miracle for a sunny day to have high temps not be well above frreezing, no? So we shouldnt necessarily be discouraged by these max temps since if there were to be a storm coming in, or even cloud cover, we could expect the majority of the day to be closer to freezing? What is the usual gap between 850 and surface temps? 

That is an impossible question.  Depends on time of year and how mixed the atmosphere is.  The surface gradients are shown to become easterly on Tuesday which would be really cold in this case.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Wednesday...

 

[Perturbed Member]

Had to do a double take when I saw these. Nice to see the models suddenly flip in our favor for once.

00z vs 12z Euro

 

00z vs 12z GFS

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I won’t get above 32. 

I take what the euro shows and take about 5 degrees off with these patterns. For here anyway.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The weenies in the NE have to be really pissed at this run.  The cold is way further west.

Still cold there... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What about lows.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Big improvement on day 7 vs yesterday's day 8.  We're going the right way.

Yeah... that battle between the block and at that cold ULL in western Canada and Alaska is wildly different on every run and determines everything for us.     This is far from settled.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What about lows.

I think Thursday morning is the coldest day...

 

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the 12Z ECMWF gets to the same place as the 00Z run did a couple days later.     But that delay could mean additional big changes are coming.  

 

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The weenies in the NE have to be really pissed at this run.  The cold is way further west.

That’s a better snow pattern for us Mid-Atlantic people, so I’m happy. New England can go f**k itself.

[TT-SEA]

The NE still gets really cold on this run...

 

[Winterdog]

An encouraging sign indeed to have the major models all showing a near term flip to colder temps.  This time of year I'll take anything I can get.  Even if it's just a two day blip it would still be welcomed IMBY.

[Christensen87]

Texas in the freezer. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Acer said:

An encouraging sign indeed to have the major models all showing a near term flip to colder temps.  This time of year I'll take anything I can get.  Even if it's just a two day blip it would still be welcomed IMBY.

Pretty likely that you are in a great spot with the set up on Sunday into Monday... your area should be in the favored c-zone placement.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Texas in the freezer. 

Arctic air well into Mexico and heading into Florida by day 10...

 

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Wednesday...

 

30’s at my house! 

[Perturbed Member]

Nice

[snow drift]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Arctic air well into Mexico and heading into Florida by day 10...

 

Nearly into Central America

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The NE still gets really cold on this run...

 

I’d be fine with the really cold stuff staying in the West/Midwest. Those nasty airmasses usually suppress waves and leave us with a howling downslope wind + chapped lips.

[AbbyJr]

[Slushy Inch]

Now the question is, how far west can it get? Troughing has moved west for several runs now, will it continue? 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS following the 12Z ECMWF... westward shift early next week.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 5...

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS on day 8...

[FroYoBro]

Haven’t followed the models much in the last 5 days. Awesome to read the last 3 pages and see the positive trend for next week. 
 

It looks like we still have a shot at winter even with all of the cancellation posts!

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Check the 2m temps... that air in BC is unbelievably frigid. 

-75F departures. I found a -67F sounding up in far northern BC. Doesn't even look real.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at day 5...

Dang

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 10...  shows cold focused in the NE.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at day 10...  shows cold focused in the NE.

I still don’t hate this. 

[AbbyJr]

This model shift to colder solutions in the short term is unreal. We could be looking at something really legit if this trend keeps up.

Honestly, forget about what the models show in the long range. This winter has zero long range predictability.

At this point, I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that most if not all the models have shifted the cold significantly further west in the short term.

Phil, any insight?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point it would not surprise me if things continued trending colder. 

[Omegaraptor]

Good news. GEFS is on board with Phase 7 MJO now. Finally caved to the Euro

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Deweydog]

Buyer beware!!!

[snow_wizard]

Big improvement on the EPS as well.  The thing I really like is the aspect dealing with the bottom part of the block progressing eastward after the initial cold shot is being delayed more on each run.

[paulb/eugene]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How’s the Korean Ensemble mean looking ?

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the current trends continue that could happen.  Wouldn't that be something?  The funny thing is this is what should happen with MJO 7, although not necessarily that extreme..

[paulb/eugene]

Just now, paulb/eugene said:

How’s the Korean Ensemble mean looking ?