TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Entire 12Z EPS run... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 The models all bring seriously cold air really close early next week. How sweet would it be if the improving trend were to continue? 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Entire 12Z EPS run... Really amazing how that cold air surges west early on. Me bets the moderation afterward will keep getting delayed. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Latest trends don't bold well for east coast winter fans. That said, they did just get massive snowstorm so its our turn now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Now the question is, how far west can it get? Troughing has moved west for several runs now, will it continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 I’ve never seen models completely abandon a solution then slowly move back towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2021 is a different year than 2020. This year will be a good year!! #thinkcoldandsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperbolic Trendz Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Buyer beware!!! True. But pretty obvious to 99% of the people here, I’m guessing, despite some moments of indulgent optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 For SEA surface obs the 12z EPS shaves about 4 degrees F of the temps during the cold snap vs the 0z. Nice move. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Runtmc said: True. But pretty obvious to 99% of the people here, I’m guessing, despite some moments of indulgent optimism. It's pretty obvious the short term will get reasonably cold though. He might have been referring to the Korean model. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Runtmc said: True. But pretty obvious to 99% of the people here, I’m guessing, despite some moments of indulgent optimism. Sometimes a little reminder isn’t a godawful idea or a bald face indication of weather enthusiast moral depravity. The upstream pattern remains very suspect on every model at this point. 3 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: 2021 is a different year than 2020. This year will be a good year!! #thinkcoldandsnow In the end this probably will be a chilly year. La Nina always increases the chances of that. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Wait what’s happening suddenly i see snow on my mobile app. Models yo yoing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Sometimes a little reminder isn’t a godawful idea or a bald face indication of weather enthusiast moral depravity. The upstream pattern remains very suspect on every model at this point. It's pretty obvious that the block becoming more top heavy is why the cold digs back toward us more. Pretty hard to imagine the models going too far in a warmer direction on this short of notice. I always thought it looked suspicious the models were taking nearly all of the cold well east of here given the offshore block. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, weather_fan said: Wait what’s happening suddenly i see snow on my mobile app. Models yo yoing ? You could say that. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 The EPS is a lot more hopeful snow on this run too. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Matthew is not onboard, which means I cannot be either. This is not going to happen. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's pretty obvious that the block becoming more top heavy is why the cold digs back toward us more. Pretty hard to imagine the models going too far in a warmer direction on this short of notice. I always thought it looked suspicious the models were taking nearly all of the cold well east of here given the offshore block. Looks like it’ll be a closer call than it looked like a couple days ago but the anomaly placement is pretty awful at the moment if your looking for any kind of deep advection. Way too much energy over the Yukon leading to a weak block with a large amount of negative tilt. While the anomaly placement is a bit different, it’s somewhat similar to last January, only the models don’t seem to be completely out of their minds cold at this point. Things could change... 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyperbolic Trendz Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Sometimes a little reminder isn’t a godawful idea or a bald face indication of weather enthusiast moral depravity. The upstream pattern remains very suspect on every model at this point. You’re probably right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Matt needs to get a puppy. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Looks like it’ll be a closer call than it looked like a couple days ago but the anomaly placement is pretty awful at the moment if your looking for any kind of deep advection. Way too much energy over the Yukon leading to a weak block with a large amount of negative tilt. While the anomaly placement is a bit different, it’s somewhat similar to last January, only the models don’t seem to be completely out of their minds cold at this point. Things could change... Interestingly last January was very snowy here. This setup looks very dry for some reaso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt needs to get a puppy. I’ll name it TPVMJOSSW. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Interestingly last January was very snowy here. This setup looks very dry for some reaso Yeah I had a foot of snow (if we are talking Jan 2020) 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Some of the Euro members are even better, considering the trends this is possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Here's a look at another crazy output from a Euro member. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: I’d be fine with the really cold stuff staying in the West/Midwest. Those nasty airmasses usually suppress waves and leave us with a howling downslope wind + chapped lips. Our strong cold wind is from the NNE. It's a downsloping wind. In this area, you can never get heavy snow and strong NNE winds. Flurries or light snow are the best you can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’ll name it TPVMJOSSW. Hey, that's a good all-American name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: The NE still gets really cold on this run... Most the country gets pretty cold at some point. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Here's a look at another crazy output from a Euro member. That looks like The Western Weather Weenies centerfold from the latest issue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 Now watch the 18z go full torch! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 46 and partly sunny here. Would be nice to know what the weathers going to do next week. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 32 years ago right now it was straight up chilly out. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 One year ago today it was chilly too... 5 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 32 years ago right now it was straight up chilly out. It was a wee bit nippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: One year ago today it was chilly too... 4 out of 10 years I have had snow on this date. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Now watch the 18z go full torch! Yeah, watch out. We may end up with the pineapple express.🏝 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 32 years ago right now it was straight up chilly out. And the last two Feb. 3rds as well! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 One year ago today Seattle had these "snow shafts" that were only a few blocks across. I remember the radar that day was really interesting with the tiniest heavy showers I've ever seen quickly dropping temps from the low 40's to near freezing. 8 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said: Yeah, watch out. We may end up with the pineapple express.🏝 And it will be all Matt’s fault because of all of his negative Jujubees... Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted February 3, 2021 Report Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: One year ago today Seattle had these "snow shafts" that were only a few blocks across. I remember the radar that day was really interesting with the tiniest heavy showers I've ever seen quickly dropping temps from the low 40's to near freezing. Convective snow showers, they can be intense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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