February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TT-SEA]

Entire 12Z EPS run...

[snow_wizard]

The models all bring seriously cold air really close early next week.  How sweet would it be if the improving trend were to continue?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Entire 12Z EPS run...

Really amazing how that cold air surges west early on.  Me bets the moderation afterward will keep getting delayed.

[AbbyJr]

Latest trends don't bold well for east coast winter fans.

That said, they did just get massive snowstorm so its our turn now. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Now the question is, how far west can it get? Troughing has moved west for several runs now, will it continue? 

[Slushy Inch]

I’ve never seen models completely abandon a solution then slowly move back towards it.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2021 is a different year than 2020. This year will be a good year!! #thinkcoldandsnow

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Buyer beware!!!

True.  But pretty obvious to 99% of the people here, I’m guessing, despite some moments of indulgent optimism. 

[snow_wizard]

For SEA surface obs the 12z EPS shaves about 4 degrees F of the temps during the cold snap vs the 0z.  Nice move.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Runtmc said:

True.  But pretty obvious to 99% of the people here, I’m guessing, despite some moments of indulgent optimism. 

It's pretty obvious the short term will get reasonably cold though.  He might have been referring to the Korean model.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Runtmc said:

True.  But pretty obvious to 99% of the people here, I’m guessing, despite some moments of indulgent optimism. 

Sometimes a little reminder isn’t a godawful idea or a bald face indication of weather enthusiast moral depravity.

The upstream pattern remains very suspect on every model at this point.  

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

2021 is a different year than 2020. This year will be a good year!! #thinkcoldandsnow

In the end this probably will be a chilly year.  La Nina always increases the chances of that.

[weather_fan]

Wait what’s happening suddenly i see snow on my mobile app. Models yo yoing ?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Sometimes a little reminder isn’t a godawful idea or a bald face indication of weather enthusiast moral depravity.

The upstream pattern remains very suspect on every model at this point.  

It's pretty obvious that the block becoming more top heavy is why the cold digs back toward us more.  Pretty hard to imagine the models going too far in a warmer direction on this short of notice.  I always thought it looked suspicious the models were taking nearly all of the cold well east of here given the offshore block.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, weather_fan said:

Wait what’s happening suddenly i see snow on my mobile app. Models yo yoing ?

You could say that.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is a lot more hopeful snow on this run too.

[MossMan]

Matthew is not onboard, which means I cannot be either. This is not going to happen.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's pretty obvious that the block becoming more top heavy is why the cold digs back toward us more.  Pretty hard to imagine the models going too far in a warmer direction on this short of notice.  I always thought it looked suspicious the models were taking nearly all of the cold well east of here given the offshore block.

Looks like it’ll be a closer call than it looked like a couple days ago but the anomaly placement is pretty awful at the moment if your looking for any kind of deep advection. Way too much energy over the Yukon leading to a weak block with a large amount of negative tilt. While the anomaly placement is a bit different, it’s somewhat similar to last January, only the models don’t seem to be completely out of their minds cold at this point.

Things could change...

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sometimes a little reminder isn’t a godawful idea or a bald face indication of weather enthusiast moral depravity.

The upstream pattern remains very suspect on every model at this point.  

You’re probably right.  

[MossMan]

Matt needs to get a puppy. 

[Esquimalt]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like it’ll be a closer call than it looked like a couple days ago but the anomaly placement is pretty awful at the moment if your looking for any kind of deep advection. Way too much energy over the Yukon leading to a weak block with a large amount of negative tilt. While the anomaly placement is a bit different, it’s somewhat similar to last January, only the models don’t seem to be completely out of their minds cold at this point.

Things could change...

Interestingly last January was very snowy here. This setup looks very dry for some reaso 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Matt needs to get a puppy. 

I’ll name it TPVMJOSSW.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Esquimalt said:

Interestingly last January was very snowy here. This setup looks very dry for some reaso 

Yeah I had a foot of snow (if we are talking Jan 2020) 

[Slushy Inch]

Some of the Euro members are even better, considering the trends this is possible.

[Slushy Inch]

Here's a look at another crazy output from a Euro member.

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’d be fine with the really cold stuff staying in the West/Midwest. Those nasty airmasses usually suppress waves and leave us with a howling downslope wind + chapped lips.

Our strong cold wind is from the NNE. It's a downsloping wind. In this area, you can never get heavy snow and strong NNE winds. Flurries or light snow are the best you can hope for.

[snow drift]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ll name it TPVMJOSSW.

Hey, that's a good all-American name. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The NE still gets really cold on this run...

 

Most the country gets pretty cold at some point. 

[snow drift]

10 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Here's a look at another crazy output from a Euro member.

That looks like The Western Weather Weenies centerfold from the latest issue.

[MossMan]

Now watch the 18z go full torch! 

[TacomaWaWx]

46 and partly sunny here. Would be nice to know what the weathers going to do next week. 

[Deweydog]

32 years ago right now it was straight up chilly out.

[TT-SEA]

One year ago today it was chilly too...

 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

32 years ago right now it was straight up chilly out.

It was a wee bit nippy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One year ago today it was chilly too...

 

4 out of 10 years I have had snow on this date. 

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Now watch the 18z go full torch! 

Yeah, watch out. We may end up with the pineapple express.🏝

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

32 years ago right now it was straight up chilly out.

And the last two Feb. 3rds as well! 

[bainbridgekid]

One year ago today Seattle had these "snow shafts" that were only a few blocks across. I remember the radar that day was really interesting with the tiniest heavy showers I've ever seen quickly dropping temps from the low 40's to near freezing.

 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Yeah, watch out. We may end up with the pineapple express.🏝

And it will be all Matt’s fault because of all of his negative Jujubees...

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

One year ago today Seattle had these "snow shafts" that were only a few blocks across. I remember the radar that day was really interesting with the tiniest heavy showers I've ever seen quickly dropping temps from the low 40's to near freezing.

 

Convective snow showers, they can be intense.