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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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And two years ago today, Snowmegadon was just getting started here. Ended up getting 25 inches of snow here and will remember February 2019 for the rest of my life. Facebook will be reminding me for the next two weeks just how deep the snow got here.

 

FB_IMG_1612387988198.jpg

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  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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We didn’t really start getting much snow here until after dark on February 3rd. Wound up with 2” by mid day February 4th. Our biggest snows were a few days later. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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trend-gfs-2021020318-f030.500h_anom_npac.gif.d92583844f9ce870de788078b8cd2ea6.gif

Cutoff low trending south and reinforcing block energy to the west trending stronger.... Both lead to a more stable block and a better southward surge in cold air. This run could be yet another improvement.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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There are some seriously cold ensemble members on the EPS.  One shows SEA dropping to 5 on the 13th with a number dropping into the teens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

trend-gfs-2021020318-f030.500h_anom_npac.gif.d92583844f9ce870de788078b8cd2ea6.gif

Cutoff low trending south and reinforcing block energy to the west trending stronger.... Both lead to a more stable block and a better southward surge in cold air. This run could be yet another improvement.

The top of the ridge(south of Alaska) is weaker, which could let energy ride over the top better.

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trend-gfs-2021020318-f066.500h_anom_npac.gif.15f2ed4a782095d10f1733104a67df75.gif

Every mile is made of steps...

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  • Excited 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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trend-gfs-2021020318-f072.500h_anom_npac.gif.61b705e209a8f797b0638a69267f3dac.gif

This marks 48 straight hours of improvements on the GFS...

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The 18z GFS is digging even better than the 12z, and by a fair margin.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty impressive positive trends the last 24 hours on the GFS. Ridge building better into Alaska, cold digging further SW into Washington.

 

f2a4fe23-5f5c-444e-acf8-7b01322d07bf.gif

  • Like 5

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Wow! I just saw the 12z GFS, GEM, ECMWF.... Talk about a drastic change and before Day 5 even. This is down the 'home stretch' so to speak. This could be what I mentioned last night that IF models were to swing in our favor it would happen quickly. Do I for the first time this Winter bring out the infamous "Colder Runs Ahead!" (c)2017?
 
Yakima ensembles shows a real nice signal for backdoor arctic air.
gfs-yakima-us-465n-1205w(2).png
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Geeze.  Could the Korean end up being right?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

What do you think AcreJake...Should we be on board yet or hold off?? 

I can't remember if there is another Jake in the north-ish Sound area...are you talkin to me?

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Holy sheit!  This run is faster and has a nice secondary shot a bit after the initial cold shot.  What an epic model change.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I can't remember if there is another Jake in the north-ish Sound area...are you talkin to me?

No but you count as well! Acre is in Arlington. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Snow for all of Puget Sound on this run.  Yes!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

No but you count as well! Acre is in Arlington. 

Oh is Acer also named Jake then? I didn't know that!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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This run brings bitterly cold air east of the Cascades. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'll bet the guys at the NWS have their jaws on the ground right now.  I know I do!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) We now have big improvements and a solid trend!

trend-gfs-2021020318-f120.500h_anom.na.gif

Unlike anything I can remember.  Just speechless right now.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

-14 850mb temps to Seattle at hour 138 . . .

Can you imagine if this gets even better?  This is fine if the improvement stops right here though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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