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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

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One interesting thing on the 12z EPS is a fair number of members showed a long cold wave.  that just might be possible now.  February is the bomb lately.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yes

Well to answer your original question, I'm all aboard!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Pretty much Just a little inside joke

 

31cef989d108933c16aa2fefaa49ea25.png

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z looks like it spits out a high of 31 for Seattle both Monday and Tuesday.

This could actually end up colder than 2019 in some ways.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Days and days of cold strong offshore flow... I love it!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Won’t be long until we are in NAM territory!! More models to ride!!! 

Has the NAM been good?

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

Right now this winter is a D-. A Polar Vortex into the NW is like getting an A on your final when you have D average. A Polar Vortex would lift this winter to a solid B average.

Story of my academic career lol 😝 

  • Like 3
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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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10 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Was it feb 2014 that suddenly did this too?

Not really. The models showed arctic air making it here fairly consistently during that lead up.  The cold ended up being less extreme as the big shift was 2-3 days out to give us lows and snow (in the Portland area) instead of a dry arctic blast. 

 

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dont-give-me-hope-meme-3.jpg.0c5f5913ced3d6ce050d1a19a2161f81.jpg

All of us right now...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Going to need the models to find more snow before the block goes away.   Even the stellar 18Z run is sparse on snow which is bad for a model that ALWAYS over-estimates snow.

snodpc_acc.us_nw (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Talk about a holy f*cking sh*t change on the models. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such drastic changes especially within a few days. Looked like a major Arctic outbreak for the east coast now looks like we could get it instead. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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On 2/1/2021 at 12:21 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, you’ve been rather distant since every one of your forecasts fell into the outhouse.

Lol Andrew

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Snow through Thursday AM is not that impressive but given how much of a westward trend we have seen on the models up to this point, it wouldn't surprise me to see a bit more of a westward push and get some of that cold air over the ocean to spin up a low.

Not worried about it at this point.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3066400.png

Exactly. IF models continue to edge the arctic air further west we could establish short-over-water trajectory, oh and it would be brutally cold too!

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going to need the models to find more snow before the block goes away.   Even the stellar 18Z run is sparse on snow which is bad for a model that ALWAYS over-estimates snow.

snodpc_acc.us_nw (1).png

Leave it to Tim to dampen the mood....

sike!

You're totally right too, it would be a bummer to end up getting real cold and have nothing to show for it besides...well, the cold. 

 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Snow through Thursday AM is not that impressive but given how much of a westward trend we have seen on the models up to this point, it wouldn't surprise me to see a bit more of a westward push and get some of that cold air over the ocean to spin up a low.

Not worried about it at this point.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-3066400.png

In the dark blue, let’s spread it out!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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24 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Crazy shift for 5 days out. Cold shifts a good 1,500 miles further West the last two runs.

 

trend-gfs-2021020318-f120.500h_anom.na (1).gif

That’s pretty incredible stuff right here. Wonder if it’ll shift even further west. Snow maps don’t look impressive at the moment but they’re not really believable at this range anyways. Could end up with some snow possibly. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Talk about a holy f*cking sh*t change on the models. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such drastic changes especially within a few days. Looked like a major Arctic outbreak for the east coast now looks like we could get it instead. 

Yeah...the thing shifted over half a continent.  Talk about terrible model performance.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Leave it to Tim to dampen the mood....

sike!

You're totally right too, it would be a bummer to end up getting real cold and have nothing to show for it besides...well, the cold. 

 

Still too far out for snow maps to even be reliable at this point. Could very well end up getting snow still. I’d be happy just getting the cold though. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Again at the same time I still remember January 2020– so to say I’m cautiously optimistic would be overstating it a bit.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...the thing shifted over half a continent.  Talk about terrible model performance.

The ECMWF had it right initially. For some reason it lost the solution for 2 days.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s pretty incredible stuff right here. Wonder if it’ll shift even further west. Snow maps don’t look impressive at the moment but they’re not really believable at this range anyways. Could end up with some snow possibly. 

At least the 18z started to show some snow.  One more step west and we could get nailed BIG.  We just need the next couple of runs to trend a tad more favorably now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Still too far out for snow maps to even be reliable at this point. Could very well end up getting snow still. I’d be happy just getting the cold though. 

True! I'd much rather have it show us cold 5 days out than to see Pepto for 11 days out. 

  • Like 1

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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