Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details. And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications. This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements. No doubt. But I still don't see evidence of massive improvement. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looking at the 00z GEFS for Yakima 850s shows the OP is a warm outlier through Day 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Looking at the 00z GEFS for Yakima 850s shows the OP is a warm outlier through Day 6 Actually slightly colder than the mean at PDX. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Looking at the 00z GEFS for Yakima 850s shows the OP is a warm outlier through Day 6 Not bad for a supposedly bad run: 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 But Jim said it’s pretty much a lock. Maybe he is the one who’s jinxing it for all of us. What could go wrong really? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Potential for Snow on Sunday and next Thursday on the GFS. Solid run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Three-Six-Zero Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: Not bad for a supposedly bad run: Can't reasonably expect people to be exited about hour 186 at this point... 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Three-Six-Zero said: Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here As normal as the morning mist off of Silver Falls. Welcome to the forum! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said: Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here Yes! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z Ukmet day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said: Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here Devastating trends. In our climate, there is seldom good news. 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Can't reasonably expect people to be exited about hour 186 at this point... We are still a few days out from the colder solution the models where originally trending towards, plenty of time to change back to greatness with a few minor tweaks in the ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said: Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here He oscillates between extreme optimism and total negativity. Just wait 5 minutes. 1 1 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Devastating trends. In our climate, there is seldom good news. Positive Andrew lasted how many hours? About 2 GFS runs? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: Positive Andrew lasted how many hours? About 2 GFS runs? I’m still feeling great. Very positive, having a great day. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Positive Andrew lasted how many hours? About 2 GFS runs? To be fair to Andrew, I think we’re all pretty close to the edge after the last month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Beautiful moment today. 17 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You are a met? This run is a massive step back in every way. The big league cold isn’t even in the vicinity. Bro 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Beautiful moment today. Magical moments! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details. And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications. This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements. This. Really is something. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 the euro will be ok the euro will be ok the euro will be ok 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 CMC has surface temps as low as -79°F in Canada. Brrr. 1 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Well I was definitely hoping models would be a little better than they are. Feels like another collapse, maybe just temporary setbacks. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Beautiful moment today. One of your dogs looks like it asked the other if it wanted to hear the most annoying sound in the world 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Requiem said: Well I was definitely hoping models would be a little better than they are. Feels like another collapse, maybe just temporary setbacks. Matt told us this would happen...We didn’t listen. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hmm, I believe I said earlier that there could be disappointment, that guess sure did not disappoint. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Said it last night, gonna say it again, and others have commented similarly today. "Long range model forecasting has unfortunately gotten worse since 2008, IMO." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Korean Model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Beautiful moment today. Today? In Oregon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Hmm, I believe I said earlier that there could be disappointment, that guess sure did not disappoint. Doesn't mean much when every single one of your posts have been negative 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Phil said: CMC has surface temps as low as -79°F in Canada. Brrr. Bet you that doesn’t verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Korean Model? 4 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bryant said: Doesn't mean much when every single one of your posts have been negative Nothing I have said has been negative at all, sorry not sorry that I won't conform to popular narrative when there really isn't anything promising within reach, that's not negative, it's fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 Definitely a step back, but atleast were in the ballpark still. Considering the massive swings run to run not too surprising we haven’t zeroed in on a solution yet. Hopefully things can trend better. At the very least things are looking much better than they were 36 hours ago. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Nothing I have said has been negative at all. If that's what you think then you need more happiness in your life lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 We’re still dealing with a pretty decent set up for cold. Hopefully the euro is still good tonight. I get the feeling this will end up working out alright. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Fun fact. I have never used tire chains. Fun fact, when I moved out west, our merry little band of 4 redneck college kids had to pay someone to put chains on their RWD cars in Weed, Ca. We left Atlanta New Years Day, so we took the southern route to LA before turning north to avoid the snow as much as possible. We left Sacramento with heavy snow over the pass, and snow sticking to the roads in Weed, where we stopped to buy chains and had them put on. By the time we bought the chains at Walmart, got them installed at a nearby tire shop and had lunch, the snow level popped back up and the roads cleared. Not understanding what to expect, we rattled about 2 miles up the freeway with all the truckers laughing at us over the CB before we pulled over and took them back off. The pass was very slushy but passable without chains (BARELY). I've since had to use chains because we lived on a really steep street (I figured out how to put them on myself LOL), but now we have a 4wd for my wife and my VW JSW has winter tires. Chains suck, but was glad that I had them when I needed them. 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bryant said: If that's what you think then you need more happiness in your life lol Life is good, but thanks for caring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2021 Report Share Posted February 4, 2021 00Z GEFS is east of the 12Z run for early next week and quite a bit east of the 18Z run. And then gets worse from there. Here is day 10... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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