Jump to content

February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


BLI snowman

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details.

And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications.   This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements.

No doubt. But I still don't see evidence of massive improvement.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said:

Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here 😂

Yes! 

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said:

Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here 😂

Devastating trends. In our climate, there is seldom good news. 

  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 1
  • Sad 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Three-Six-Zero said:

Is this normal behavior for Andrew to act like this after model runs? I’m new here 😂

He oscillates between extreme optimism and total negativity.   Just wait 5 minutes.  

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Popcorn 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Cloud said:

Positive Andrew lasted how many hours? About 2 GFS runs? 😁

I’m still feeling great. Very positive, having a great day. 

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are a met? This run is a massive step back in every way. The big league cold isn’t even in the vicinity. 

Bro

  • Troll 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am always impressed with the ECMWF for surface details.

And regarding the current situation... I am guessing this is a unique set up where minor details have massive ramifications.   This situation is probably inherently challenging regardless of model improvements.

This. Really is something.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I was definitely hoping models would be a little better than they are. Feels like another collapse, maybe just temporary setbacks.

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Well I was definitely hoping models would be a little better than they are. Feels like another collapse, maybe just temporary setbacks.

Matt told us this would happen...We didn’t listen. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Doesn't mean much when every single one of your posts have been negative

Nothing I have said has been negative at all, sorry not sorry that I won't conform to popular narrative when there really isn't anything promising within reach, that's not negative, it's fact.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely a step back, but atleast were in the ballpark still. Considering the massive swings run to run not too surprising we haven’t zeroed in on a solution yet. Hopefully things can trend better. At the very least things are looking much better than they were 36 hours ago. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’re still dealing with a pretty decent set up for cold. Hopefully the euro is still good tonight. I get the feeling this will end up working out alright. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fun fact. I have never used tire chains. 

Fun fact, when I moved out west, our merry little band of 4 redneck college kids had to pay someone to put chains on their RWD cars in Weed, Ca.  We left Atlanta New Years Day, so we took the southern route to LA before turning north to avoid the snow as much as possible.  We left Sacramento with heavy snow over the pass, and snow sticking to the roads in Weed, where we stopped to buy chains and had them put on.

 

By the time we bought the chains at Walmart, got them installed at a nearby tire shop and had lunch, the snow level popped back up and the roads cleared.  Not understanding what to expect, we rattled about 2 miles up the freeway with all the truckers laughing at us over the CB before we pulled over and took them back off.  The pass was very slushy but passable without chains (BARELY). 

I've since had to use chains because we lived on a really steep street (I figured out how to put them on myself LOL), but now we have a 4wd for my wife and my VW JSW has winter tires.  Chains suck, but was glad that I had them when I needed them.  

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GEFS is east of the 12Z run for early next week and quite a bit east of the 18Z run. 

And then gets worse from there.   Here is day 10...

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3260800 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...