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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Honestly it’s a toss up. Neither have been impressive lately. I’d say 53% chance euro wins tho. 

This kind of reminds me of last year around late March early April when the pandemic knocked out nearly all the model data from airplanes. The models were complete garbage, GFS and Euro often looked completely different 3 days out, it was crazy.

Except this time there is actually cold and snow on the line.

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

trend-gfs-2021020418-f084.500h_anom_npac.gif.7c6dee2ebb6aa2ff0c62b33b51c1cdd2.gif

The 18z is the best run of the day...?

Bad as in why do they always show the goods when the 12 and 0z’s fling us back to reality

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It seems like the 18Z GFS is trying to go towards the ECMWF solution of keeping the trough up near Alaska later next week instead of absorbing into the trough over the PNW.     It looks very different than the 12Z GFS.    

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800 (2).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3098800 (3).png

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Bad as in why do they always show the goods when the 12 and 0z’s fling us back to reality

Yeah... we are in that magical 5-hour period before the 00Z runs crash all hope!  

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Could the 18Z GFS be any different than the 12Z run for late next week??  😀

Ironically... its the ridgy 18Z run that delivers way more snow! 

Day 8... 18Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom.   The 18Z run is a huge move towards the ECMWF/EPS solution.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800 (1).png

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could the 18Z GFS be any different than the 12Z run for late next week??  😀

Ironically... its the ridgy 18Z run that delivers way more snow! 

Day 8... 18Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom.   The 18Z run is a huge move towards the ECMWF/EPS solution.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3152800 (1).png

How do the total snow maps look?

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Actually the 12z had much more lowland snow. This is a major cave towards King Euro. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Actually the 12z had much more lowland snow. This is a major cave towards King Euro. 

It is a major cave toward the ECMWF... but I think this run has more snow in WA due to overrunning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

I hate the lack of extremes here in Seattle's climate. Yes, there are rare instances like February 2019, 5/28/10, and 7/29/09 where we can get extreme weather, but it's a much rarer occurrence than what the rest of the country experiences.

I've floated the idea of Boston around in my head for its variability, and to be honest, if I do end up within the government at the NWS, it may not be up to me to choose where I live. It could be in Fairbanks for all I know.

Despite all this, I can not envision a scenario in which I pick up my life and place it hundreds or thousands of miles away, at least willingly and outside of a job requirement. I just can't abandon all my friends and family, all of which whom live in the PNW from Vancouver, to Eugene, to Boise, and of course Seattle and its surrounding suburbs. I have a stable, relatively happy life here, and I can always storm chase in my spare time.

Another thing that keeps me here, something is often overlooked in the discussion of our climate, is its palatability. The winters are a moody, surprisingly lively, brisk time of year with an overcast sky that has grown on me over the course of my life here. The summers are seasonable and temperate so that outdoor recreation remains comfortable year round, yet temperatures frequently warm enough to sunbathe and swim. It really is a mostly "perfect" climate.

That and the fresh air, world class tap water, nearby skiing, fresh seafood, natural scenic beauty, and mostly uncorrupt government. I'll survive not seeing as much snow.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

I’m pretty much locked into this region for the next few years due to education, but I’ve been considering transferring to a place like Denver.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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No snow action on the GFS for here. Onto 27-28!!!

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Maybe this run has more snow for W. WA, but overall it is much milder and if it is trending towards the EURO that snow will disappear on subsequent runs. Really volatile situation.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

Hopefully this year back to the east coast. Virginia is furthest south i'm willing to go. Obviously inland.

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

GFS 18z is a dream scenario with snow and then a layer of ice of top.

I prefer the inverse..ice with a layer of snow on top. Otherwise it’s just compacting the snow and not adding up.

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1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

Serious question...

How many of you are considering a move in the next few years, and if you are, how big of a factor is the climate where you currently are?

Would have already happened if possible. My noggin had other ideas.

Biggest factor is a trend of rapidly warming and drying where fires and ashfall will now happen on an almost annual basis. Fuckk that shitt.

Also, the rest of the year's weather is some of the most boring in the United States.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

No snow action on the GFS for here. Onto 27-28!!!

Very highly doubt you wait 6 years for a snow event lol

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

The amount of ice in the 18z would shut down the Puget sound area due to extensive tree damage.

Yea it would. No bueno. Had a .75-1 inch of ice in 2012 I believe. That sucked majorly

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Very highly doubt you wait 6 years for a snow event lol

Happened from 1996-2003. The warming and drying trend is a disaster here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Day 10... 18Z run on top and 12Z run on the bottom.    Good Lord.   😀

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3325600 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3325600.png

This run is bonkers. Drops 850mb temps to -31C here. Would be coldest airmass in history.

Which is why I’m skeptical it verifies.

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For those following the models... the big difference that causes so much chaos later on seems to be focused around a ULL that breaks off the main trough early next week.      

Here is the 12Z ECMWF run (on top) and the 18Z GFS run (on the bottom) through day 10.    

The ECMWF sends it NW towards Alaska... the 18Z GFS sends it westward into the GOA... the 12Z GFS sent it SW into the PNW.  

The effects of the movement of that low have massive implications afterwards.   That is the thing to watch on future runs.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1612440000-1612440000-1613304000-10.gif

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1612461600-1612461600-1613325600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, wxmet said:

I prefer the ice on top to protect the snow from the inevitable transition to rain.

Yeah I guess it depends if it’s sleet or ZR, and which way it’s flipping.

As you know from living here, we get a ton of sleet, and it looks like snow when it accumulates. Serves as a great foundation for future snow/ice, should it happen.

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Watching those loops above... its like that main trough is giving birth to a baby and which way it shoots out means everything in terms of our weather! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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