February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z is running. Time to hand it off to Rob.

I gotta make that bread somehow.

[Jesse]

49 minutes ago, iFred said:

He’s corrected me countless times but my phone autocorrects and I’m lazy.

My name isn’t short for Jessica  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Need the block to pivot around more quickly.

[bainbridgekid]

00z a little East at hour 45.

[snow drift]

47 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Shows how pathetic our winter climate is....

Potential temps slightly below 30 in the mornings! Everyone panic!!

A bread and milk run is coming.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Base of the block a few notches closer to us. I don't really like how this is progressing thus far.

[snow drift]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Base of the block a few notches closer to us. I don't really like how this is progressing thus far.

Closer=no bueno

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 A definite step back thus far

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 to 3.5 arctic trough digging southwestward pushing the base of the ridge west.

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Need the block to pivot around more quickly.

Block(Played by the late Sean Connery): Capt, I'm giving her all she's got!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I had snow falling with a dusting on 3/22/13, and a good inch or so in early March 2017 as well. 

March 1, 2007 appears to have been snowy in your area and parts of the island.

Going back through to 2002 I wasn't able to find many March days with snow followed by clear skies. Generally March snow melts before you have a clear day. March 17, 2002 dumped a bunch of snow on the island, but looks like it was mostly a high elevation event further south:

 

 

[wxmet]

GFS has the same C-zone setup similar to the NAM for early Monday

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3 A definite step back thus far

(Past 4 runs)

Look at that 4 run 'trend'... Should be renamed to the RNG - random number generator!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Step back from previous runs

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's see how day 4.5+ plays out

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 850s

[GHweatherChris]

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

March 1, 2007 appears to have been snowy in your area and parts of the island.

Going back through to 2002 I wasn't able to find many March days with snow followed by clear skies. Generally March snow melts before you have a clear day. March 17, 2002 dumped a bunch of snow on the island, but looks like it was mostly a high elevation event further south:

 

 

I do have this pic from 2/28/07 on my phone but I’m sure I have other pics on my external hard drive though. Nice event! This was at the family lake house on Lake Goodwin. 

[TT-SEA]

At 120 hours... I can make a fairly confident guess that this run is going to take most of the fun the 12Z and 18Z run showed for later next week.      Its related to the ULL breaking off and heading towards the NW over AK like the ECMWF showed.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[paulb/eugene]

Gfs 00z bit east and north with trough

Nuremberg Model hat gesagt “Auf Wiedersehen”

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 850s. Chunk of bitter air trying to swing down into Eastern Washington.

[wxmet]

Upper low over Alaska is more or less in the same position as previous GFS runs. More interesting, is the weak wave that comes through late Tuesday for some frozen precip over W. WA.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Wednesday afternoon... this run shows some marginal snow in the Seattle area on Tuesday morning with temps in the mid to upper 30s.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A little colder at hr 144.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5.5 850s. Chunk of bitter air trying to swing down into Eastern Washington.

First shade of purple intrusion over my house! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[Requiem]

Anyone wanna go to crown point next week? Socially distanced? Might be the week for it.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Upper low over Alaska is more or less in the same position as previous GFS runs. More interesting, is the weak wave that comes through late Tuesday for some frozen precip over W. WA.

 

This run is vastly different than the 12Z run up in Alaska.   The 18Z run took a big step in that direction (towards the ECMWF/EPS) and the 00Z run continued that trend.   

12Z run on top... and 00Z run on the bottom.    Look at the difference over Alaska.

 

 

[wxmet]

Nice 1054mb high over the B.C.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 150 850s -9c PDX, -15c Gorge

[wxmet]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

This run is vastly different than the 12Z run up in Alaska.   the 18Z run took a big step in that direction (towards the ECMWF/EPS) and the 00Z run continued that trend.

12Z run on top... and 00Z run on the bottom.    Look at the difference over Alaska.

 

I was looking at the Day 5 comparison that Rob posted which showed the upper low in more or less the SAME POSITION.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

This run is vastly different than the 12Z run up in Alaska.   the 18Z run took a big step in that direction (towards the ECMWF/EPS) and the 00Z run continued that trend.

12Z run on top... and 00Z run on the bottom.    Look at the difference over Alaska.

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

The airmass in Montana and up in Canada is not as cold, but this run is better than the last two at actually getting the cold air into the PNW.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice. Day 6.5 850s -11c PDX, -16c Gorge

[Gradient Keeper]

To think we only had the far western edge of the bitter air mass swing down into Eastern Washington and it was still this cold. Wow.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS might still be leaving too much energy on the west side of the main trough after the split... but its much closer to the ECMWF solution.    Assuming the ECMWF holds its position!

[Omegaraptor]

No moisture anywhere to be seen unfortunately, and looking like a quick hitter. Still a cold airmass