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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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8 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Yeah. I hate to be pessimistic, but it’s time to throw in the towel. Cold days coming up for sure, but nothing noteworthy. Mild by mid February. Let’s wait a week or two to see if anything happens toward the end of the month. We’ve seen enough for now though, no more torture! 

Yep seems like at this point it’s late February/first couple days of March is our last shot. This cold shot seems like it’ll just be a glancing blow at best. Hopefully we can get another push of cold air later this month further west and actually get something meaningful. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like we have quite a GFS / ECMWF war going here.  Both solutions seem pretty possible given the circumstances.  The ECMWF is more like the Canadian which forms another block in the 6 to 10 day period.  Day 6 ECMWF seems to be following suit.  Kona low.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just 0.01” here today. Disappointing trends on the models but tbh was never really sold on the full on cold shot considering the major volatility of the models recently. Hopefully we can actually get something decent in the second half of this month...still only February 4th. 

  • Rain 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Horrid run. Like even the easterlies are mostly gone. 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yep seems like at this point it’s late February/first couple days of March is our last shot. This cold shot seems like it’ll just be a glancing blow at best. Hopefully we can get another push of cold air later this month further west and actually get something meaningful. 

This has been my biggest concern for days now is the fact that it seems nothing more than a glancing blow and when that happens, we're dealing with a razor thin margin. It'd be nice to just be completely entrench in arctic air. We'll get a clearer picture once this is within 48 hours.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yep seems like at this point it’s late February/first couple days of March is our last shot. This cold shot seems like it’ll just be a glancing blow at best. Hopefully we can get another push of cold air later this month further west and actually get something meaningful. 

You guys are being kind of absurd here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Why anyone would give up given the current circumstances is beyond me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 7 quite GEM-like

500h_anom.na.png

Didn't you hear?  It's time to give up!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why anyone would give up given the current circumstances is beyond me.

You can’t blame people for being more than a little skeptical considering the way this entire season (not to mention the last one) has gone. That EURO really was a punch in the gut— hopefully the EPS isn’t as awful.

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Cloud said:

Eurofus. 

Because it came from the west... its not as cold as if the trough expanded westward over us.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-3196000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You guys are being kind of absurd here.

Let’s be honest jim if current model projections verify this won’t be anything too memorable. Could change but it hasn’t been trending very good. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

At this rate, could be another 10-15 years before another winter on par with 16-17 comes around.

Or next winter.   Could happen any time. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Even on the EURO we have a persistent low level cold pool Gorge, Columbia Basin with strong east wind for days and days. I think this solution may be what plays out, but and I know it seems redundant, it would take very little with the handling of the offshore ridge, and cut-off lows to see a quick shift to much colder runs as models lock in inside that 72hr window.
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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
Even on the EURO we have a persistent low level cold pool Gorge, Columbia Basin with strong east wind for days and days.
I think this solution may be what plays out, but and I know it seems redundant, it would take very little with the handling of the offshore ridge, and cut-off lows to see a quick shift to much colder runs as models lock in inside that 72hr window.

I’m still holding out hope for some tweaks causing major improvements! 
 

 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or next winter.   Could happen any time. 

18-19 was pretty unexpected...that winter was hot garbage up until February then it ended up being one of the best on record. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

I’m still holding out hope for some tweaks causing major improvements! 
 

 

I mean it could given how crazy the models have been but it seems like we’ve been very slowly trending the wrong way the past few runs. Hopefully things shift back west and we can end up with something memorable out of it somehow...but I’m not holding my breath at this point. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just walked the property to make sure the drainage is doing well...It is! I could go jetsking in the main trench however! WET! 
1.12” on the day now, 2.51” for the month. 

  • Rain 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Just walked the property to make sure the drainage is doing well...It is! I could go jetsking in the main trench however! WET! 
1.12” on the day now, 2.51” for the month. 

It is downright nasty outside here... sideways rain.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is downright nasty outside here... sideways rain.

It’s awful. I’m rooting for a slightly drier than average March and April. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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