Skagit Weather Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Currently heavy rain and 43. .88” so far on the day. 3.55” for the month, 11.27” for the year. The PNA looked kind of crappy. GO 6z and the NAM!!!! Wow! I was almost keeping pace with you until this morning. Only 0.08" so far today with 2.20" so far on the month. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: We will soon see what the 12Z GFS says. Contrary to popular belief... I don't control the models or the weather. Yeah no doubt the 12z will be a bucket of cold water to wake us up this morning. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. 14 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. That is pretty D**n amazing! Congrats to you guys, what an adventure! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. Nice! Good luck on the big transition! 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. Wow. That will be some change! That's exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Not good so far at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Seriously if this falls apart now, IF it does.... I'm taking a vacation from model riding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, JBolin said: Good morning, As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters. Well despite my better judgement I have chosen to share some major life news with you all, my gf has accepted an amazing offer from her employer that requires relocation. As such the offer comes with all expenses paid relocation overseas. As of August 3rd of this year, her and I will be living full time in Tampere, Finland, not only will this be a massive change but also a welcome change as she is originally from Finland and still has family there as well as in Sweden and Norway. I'm still a bit shell-shocked about the whole thing but then I realized, I'll get to see the Aurora Borealis, I'll get snow and not have to worry about the models waffling, I'll see so many things that many of us want or hope to see (in a lifetime) and how lucky we'll both be to experience that. The immersion into a culture I'm not familiar with will be a hard task to endure but the "rewards" will far outweigh any hiccups or missteps I may have. So for the time being, I may continue to lurk among you and may periodically post. Take it easy you goons. Woah! Best of luck to you, and enjoy some real winter weather! 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 This run is slightly warmer so far. Seems fairly similar though. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 At hour 90 you can tell the cold air is shunting further east than the 06z. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pretty significant eastward shift. 06z 12z Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 4.5 arctic trough trying to dig back now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Seriously if this falls apart now, IF it does.... I'm taking a vacation from model riding. It’s pretty difficult to call this “falling apart” when models have been all over the place for the last week. It’s not like a full on arctic blast has ever been the most consistent model outcome for us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Near miss to the east, but still pretty chilly, seems like the most likely outcome among all sorts of uncertainty. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, FroYoBro said: It’s pretty difficult to call this “falling apart” when models have been all over the place for the last week. It’s not like a full on arctic blast has ever been the most consistent mode outcome for us. The models have been more manic than me! 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 5 Backdoor cold, but likely not a big blast (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Interesting how the UHI of PDX shows up on this map. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The models have been more manic than me! Perhaps you're not "blessed" enough? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 5 850s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 5.5 850s Nothing wrong with that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, JBolin said: Perhaps you're not "blessed" enough? I am definitely NOT blessed. 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still looks chilly during the work week. Probably looking at highs 40-45 in the metro area with lows 25-35 depending on winds. Highs around 45 in the valley lows 20-25. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 6 850s -16c Gorge. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 So is it going to snow or not? Looks like we may get the cold but suddenly it becomes drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Remember the GFS often greatly overdoes it with low level CAA. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Freezing Fog and 32 degrees at the moment. Expected high for today is 48. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Rod Hill definitely is warmer Tues, Wed, and Thurs at pretty much 45 each day. Nelsen has 42, 42, and 40. Lows were comparable in the upper 20's. More times than not Rod has done a better job with these kinds of temp profiles in margnal events. Nelsen is hands above better in overall weather forecasting. We'll see who leads the way here. It doesn't seem like much but that's a 3 degree spread and in marginal possible snow set ups, one degree is crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I am definitely NOT blessed. Yes you are. You have all your family and they look healthy. 7 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Snow per the 12Z GFS... some c-zone snow at times early next week. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Day 7 850s arctic air Gorge, Columbia Basin persistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Prairiedog said: Rod Hill definitely is warmer Tues, Wed, and Thurs at pretty much 45 each day. Nelsen has 42, 42, and 40. Lows were comparable in the upper 20's. More times than not Rod has done a better job with these kinds of temp profiles in margnal events. Nelsen is hands above better in overall weather forecasting. We'll see who leads the way here. It doesn't seem like much but that's a 3 degree spread and in marginal possible snow set ups, one degree is crucial. Rod hill has really been drinking heavy again. Poor little fellow. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Starting to be more confident in that this won't be a bitterly cold backdoor arctic blast with 850s at -15c like some runs have showed, but still a decently chilly backdoor blast with 850s peaking around -8/-10c and highs around 40. If precip comes in at the right time or the right strength, I could see some lowland snow developing especially in the AM/PM next week. That's still up in the air, of course. 12z GFS spits out a high of 30 for Seattle on Wednesday, so there is a chance this could improve further down the home stretch but I'd say the above is generally a good outline. The GFS is so goofy with its temp output. It's like it assumes that Seattle is the same as Spokane in terms of geography. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The GFS is so goofy with its temp output. It's like it assumes that Seattle is the same as Spokane in terms of geography. Terrain always getting in the way of s*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said: I really think we need to make a graph for the extreme bipolar mood on here over time. It's like every six hours we go from the highest highs to the lowest lows. Almost as if we had our entire life savings invested in the outcome of every March Madness game, but on every other game we bet on the upset. It’s wild, man. The last time I saw mood swings of similar amplitude on a wx forum was Boxing Day 2010. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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