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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Still probably the coldest weather since October. 

For y’all up there absolutely. Gonna be tough to get below the 23F here from Oct 26. This setup feels tenuous for getting super cold anomalies this far south but it would definitely be colder than normal which is very nice.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Y'all are probly gonna get chilly or downright cold up there. Down this way seems a far more dubious prospect.

If the Ukie or the GEM end up correct you will get really cold there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Where the hell is this at and how do I get there?

 

North Falls at Silver Falls state park. Literally 2 miles tops from my front door... Sometimes I take that for granted. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Where the hell is this at and how do I get there?

 

Silver Falls north falls. One of the most beautiful places in Oregon and the crown jewel of the state park system.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

North Falls at Silver Falls state park. Literally 2 miles tops from my front door... Sometimes I take that for granted. 

A more positive Andrew that now hikes daily! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

1.54” of rain yesterday, 1.49” so far today. I purchased this weather station because I knew how different rain totals must be up here compared to down in North Bend, seems to be paying off! North Bend at 0.47” yesterday and 0.49” today. Rainforest!

This is a classic upslope pattern that favors the foothills exposed to NW flow which exaggerates the orographic effects.   It happened frequently in 2018.    The opposite was true for the last couple weeks of January when it was drier out here with general easterly flow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

North Falls at Silver Falls state park. Literally 2 miles tops from my front door... Sometimes I take that for granted. 

Dude, I would be there every chance I got, that's like living in Lapland and NEVER going out in the middle of the night to pet the reindeer as the Aurora dances above you.

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6 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Dude, I would be there every chance I got, that's like living in Lapland and NEVER going out in the middle of the night to pet the reindeer as the Aurora dances above you.

Finnish people are some of the most chill people you will come across. They're a proud group that survived the Indo-European pillaging because the IE peoples' horses got cold and were dying of starvation, so they would regularly be saved and warmed by these reindeer-herding and fishing peoples. Gradually their cultures admixed instead of the N haplotype being eradicated and they invented the sauna together with their combined techniques.

I would love to visit there one day.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I concur, let’s lock in that CMC run. ❄️

Just looked at it. Wowzers 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Any thoughts on a historical pattern what we have coming up resembles? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looked at it. Wowzers 

Best run yet across the CONUS.

Coldest 850mb temps on record for much of the West/Midwest. Would also get me to average snowfall for the season. 👊

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This run should be colder than 00z. More of the TPV gets squeezed out of AK/Yukon early on by -NAO.

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Just now, Phil said:

This run should be colder than 00z. More of the TPV gets squeezed out of AK/Yukon early on by -NAO.

Kiss of death? 😉

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

This run should be colder than 00z. More of the TPV gets squeezed out of AK/Yukon early on by -NAO.

I was just thinking that the 12Z ECMWF might be colder based on what I am seeing up around Alaska at day 3.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Positive changes on the ECMWF.  The top part of the block is more robust and there is more back digging along the BC Coast early on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is certainly looking better.  No question.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just thinking that the 12Z ECMWF might be colder based on what I am seeing up around Alaska at day 3.

I think I finally understand why these model gyrations are happening at such a close range. All comes down to how effectively the TPV over Yukon evacuates southward during the first 36-48hrs, as the NAO/Pacific blocks put it under pressure.

And that’s an extremely fragile situation..if one of the two blocks is a tad bit weaker, it leaves a little extra TPV energy up in the arctic and it gets trapped in the middle of the retrograde leading to a warmer solution. Or vice versa. In this case the Pacific block is weaker/more fickle, so its the one more correlated to the instabilities.

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

That D**n cutoff in the middle of the ridge isnt good

 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is certainly looking better.  No question.

Conflicting reports!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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