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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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It’s the epitome of chaos..squeezing a fluid eddy between two rough, malformed plates and predicting how said eddy will evolve.

Will probably be years before we see a similarly fickle, volatile setup.

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The ULL split is much more heavily favored with the main trough and less in Alaska on the 12Z ECMWF... this is going to be a cold run.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2915200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The run to run change on this ECMWF run is pretty striking.  We're going the right way in the home stretch!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5

500h_anom.na.png

ECMWF, GEM, GFS

models-2021020512-f120.500h_anom.na.gif

Yes!!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, wxmet said:

Things improving as we get closer is a nice change from what we’re use to this winter.

With such intense cold air in play this has serious potential.  Amazingly it looks like the GFS owned the ECMWF again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Things improving as we get closer is a nice change from what we’re use to this winter.

Rug pull-back?

I'm wondering if that mega ridge west of Greenland is putting extra "pressure" on the PV lobe to the S/SW?

I've noticed the notch/es continue to eek SW'ward over the last 48 hours

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

With such intense cold air in play this has serious potential.  Amazingly it looks like the GFS owned the ECMWF again.

Just remember this hasn’t happened just yet. Encouraging signs but it could change by the next run or two. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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This run looks like potential holy sheit cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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What in the world is going on?

At this rate, we're going to get the rug pulled out and put back under us 4 more times before Monday even gets here. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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6 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Rug pull-back?

I'm wondering if that mega ridge west of Greenland is putting extra "pressure" on the PV lobe to the S/SW?

I've noticed the notch/es continue to eek SW'ward over the last 48 hours

Rob, do you concur or am I seeing s***?

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Wow, ya'll get your cold, I get my strong easterlies, all is right with this run 🥰

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Chilly in northern parts of the region.

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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