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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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Unfortunately on this run... its completely dry for all of WA state after about Wednesday afternoon through the end of the run.   Subject to change of course! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That's some very strong offshore flow to say the least.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately on this run... its completely dry for all of WA state after about Wednesday afternoon through the end of the run.

It's no secret that you prefer sun and warmth, but would you rather have a weeklong cold snap that stays dry, or gives you some good snow? 

I know Feb 2019 was apocalyptic type snow up there, so let's assume it doesn't get to that level. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately on this run... its completely dry for all of WA state after about Wednesday afternoon through the end of the run.   Subject to change of course! 

Definitely reminiscent of December 2009 and February 2014. Did have an overrunning event to end 2014 however. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temp loop per the 12Z ECMWF... still seems like more of a glancing blow west of the Cascades.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t850_anom_stream-1612526400-1612526400-1613217600-10.gif

It sure wouldn't take much to bring the vodka cold in here.  Really close call assuming anywhere close to this ends up being reality.  Every model has had a turn at a great run now so it's more likely than it was.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

It's no secret that you prefer sun and warmth, but would you rather have a weeklong cold snap that stays dry, or gives you some good snow? 

I know Feb 2019 was apocalyptic type snow up there, so let's assume it doesn't get to that level. 

Some snow would be nice for a cold snap.    But obviously I would like to avoid a February 2019 situation.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 it just doesn't end

500h_anom.na.png

With super low dps if we can get snow cover there could be some wild low temps in wind sheltered areas.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some snow would be nice for a cold snap.    But obviously I would like to avoid a February 2019 situation.   

I get it. A couple of my co-workers are up there and they couldn't leave for a week. One of them drives a 4Runner...

I think the most I had on the ground was a foot or so, which I think is perfect for a 2 week stretch, while our total snowfall was 18-20'' I believe.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:
I'm exhausteddd I need a nap before 00z.

You've earned it! We'll hold down the fort for you.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at 120 hours...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2958400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-2958400 (1).png

Wow 3/4 of the country about to enter the freezer. Pretty impressive stuff. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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22 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Well the Euro sure changed it's tune for my area. Unfortunately with both of our pattern changes this season the GFS took the lead 2 to 3 days before the Euro finally caught on. So I am not buying it until the GFS catches on. God I hope it happens though. 

How much snow did you end up with in January?

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A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Feb 2014 was pretty darn good up in PDX as well.

Yeah, moisture didn't start showing up until a few days before the event and intially it was headed to Southern Oregon but eventually trended north at the last minute. 3 consecutive days of snow for PDX. Thu, Fri and Sat if I remember correctly. 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Definitely reminiscent of December 2009 and February 2014. Did have an overrunning event to end 2014 however. 

Dec 2009 was basically worst case scenario as far as dry blasts go. Almost never happens like that, with hardly any lowland snow anywhere.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Drastic changes on the EPS.  Really something to see the EPS change so much with something so close.  This may end up being big league.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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