TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z EPS day 8.5... 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 30s in Seattle from Wednesday - Saturday. Hopefully sub freezing at my place! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 So much going on hard to keep up. EPS better with snow also 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 30s in Seattle from Wednesday - Saturday. There goes the >40 max streak 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Hopefully sub freezing at my place! If this run verifies you’d have a hard time getting out of the 20s for a few days. Even here it showed a couple sub 30 highs. 2 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Kolk1604 said: So much going on hard to keep up. EPS better with snow also Best EPS for Wester Wa snowfall I’ve seen recently, wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: On this run... the precip is all to the south later next week but this has the feeling of something that could evolve into a major overrunning snowstorm on future runs Or it could be a February 2014 special for Eugene! And Redmond!!! Eerily similar to February 2014. 35” in 3 days. It was unreal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS at 120 hours... I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare. 3 1 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z EPS... day 10. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still foggy and 34 degrees! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 I was hoping for the ECMWF suite of models to be better,, but this is insane. Interesting to note the UKMET picked up on it one run sooner. I think this could verify around -15 on the 850s over SEA. Going to be fun to watch. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS day 8.5... Maybe a poor man's 1899? 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare. Yeah... its pretty typical for models to be too aggressive with cold air in the mid range. Even if it has the 500mb pattern correct it will probably moderate some. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Anybody (Rob, Jim, Phil, etc) have any idea what type of pattern elicited the nearly 4" of snow in San Francisco in (I believe) 1886? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I'm a bit skeptical of a major PNW cold wave with such weak support from the Pacific block. I'm sure it's happened before, but has to be pretty rare. It's all about the -NAO driven sideways trough back digging into us. One thing I have been skeptical about is the ECMWF and GEM wanting to progress the bottom part of the block inland so fast with a Kona low there in combo with the sideways trough over southern Canada. Pretty hard to ignore this kind of model consensus at this time frame. We'll see. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Outliers? If not nobody say a fu&$ing thing!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, JBolin said: Anybody (Rob, Jim, Phil, etc) have any idea what type of pattern elicited the nearly 4' of snow in San Francisco in (I believe) 1886? Is that 4 feet or 4 inches? I know we had a great event here in mid January 1886. Could have been a southern extension of that. Probably big time offshore blocking. -NAO usually keeps cold from getting very south over the West. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: With dewpoints in the negative values, IF we had moisture/snow with wet bulb cooling could you imagine how cold PDX could potentially get? We're talking single digits if we had a strong enough system with lots of moisture and strong east wind. Everything would have to line up just right to give PDX single digits. Hasn’t happened since 1989. But maybe. If a snowy system managed to make it in the snow would also be very dry powder, not wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It's all about the -NAO driven sideways trough back digging into us. One thing I have been skeptical about is the ECMWF and GEM wanting to progress the bottom part of the block inland so fast with a Kona low there in combo with the sideways trough over southern Canada. Pretty hard to ignore this kind of model consensus at this time frame. We'll see. I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side? A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Pretty massive improvement from the previous run on highs/lows for SEA. A high of....27? Stealth edit...this was clarified. 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said: Everything would have to line up just right to give PDX single digits. Hasn’t happened since 1989. But maybe. If a snowy system managed to make it in the snow would also be very dry powder, not wet snow. It’s been that long since single digit DPs in Portland? We’ve had multiple times over the past couple years with DPs in the -10 to 5 degrees range. October 2019 even had -4 DP...had a DP of -10 in late February 2019. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Uh oh... Where's Kayla? Did she freeze already? 2 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, TacomaWaWx said: It’s been that long since single digit DPs in Portland? We’ve had multiple times over the past couple years with DPs in the -10 to 5 degrees range. October 2019 even had -4 DP...had a DP of -10 in late February 2019. Oh my bad, I thought Rob was talking about single digit temps. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side? Not for sure. The analogs have been pointing to late January 1980. That was a really solid, but mostly dry cold snap. Dropped to 11 IMBY on that one. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, jakerepp said: A high of....27? That's when the run ends. In the morning. So not the actual high for the day 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: How much snow did you end up with in January? 36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Front Ranger said: That's when the run ends. In the morning. So not the actual high for the day Oh dangit. I knew that too... Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, AlTahoe said: 36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. So the models that showed 300+ inches were wrong? **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro shows some 10/0 type days at the Mt Hood ski resorts. Fahrenheit of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: So the models that showed 300+ inches were wrong? Those GFS while fun to look at are always really far off. Usually 20-33% of the depicted totals is what happens. Mammoth ended up with about 100" from the storm so 33%. GFS is always 3F to cold as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Is that 4 feet or 4 inches? I know we had a great event here in mid January 1886. Could have been a southern extension of that. Probably big time offshore blocking. -NAO usually keeps cold from getting very south over the West. Sorry, 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Full of 12Z EPS... 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: 36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard. At least it seemed like it snowed hard. If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Full of 12Z EPS... Can you post the 00Z to compare against, por favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 No action for here on the EC. Maybe a sub-40F high tho? This location is so bad for Arctic cold & snow most years. 2-25-19 was so fukkin' rare. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard. At least it seemed like it snowed hard. If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is. I think we had 40 inches here in a 24-hour period in February 2019. Its not real fun. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 EPS has Colville down to -10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, JW8 said: Can you post the 00Z to compare against, por favor? 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 5, 2021 Report Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: I think we had 40 inches here in a 24-hour period in February 2019. Its not real fun. That would be amazing to watch, but a lot of work to clear. I can only imagine the berm on my driveway after such a big snow. And the berms are always compact and icy, even if it is a relatively dry snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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